ATL: IKE Discussion

[AL Chili Pepper]

Noticed some of the coldest cloud tops in some time just to the east of the center on the latest IR frame. Will check back in later to see if that gets going.

[Weatherfreak000]

Discussion:

.BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING.

I hope others will note this statement from the NHC's discussion.

and it's still likely to pay you a personal visit

LOL. Nicely said.

[Agua]

crawling

[gatorcane]

I see no evidence of a WNW movement...all NW so far. The NHC comments it "could" be starting a more WNW movement.

That's pretty much allaying fears of those north of Ike (like in LA) for the time being....as in "all model guidance suggests a WNW movement to commence at some point..."

but as Delta Dog points out there is a weakness still to the north of iKe.

MS/AL & FL Panhandle too

I'll remember your posts on Saturday when Ike is inland.

It's almost like some of you believe the NHC hasn't done their homework.
They are the "experts".

I'm not saying its going to the northern Gulf Coast, just pointing out a comment from what of our resident METS about the weakness still being there north of Ike --- of course it *should* fill in soon, that is what every model is suggesting so its almost certainly going to fill in and Ike should bend to the WNW.

[HouTXmetro]

Has anybody been to this site? Excellent site for track and models.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[SoupBone]

Can someone please post a map of the EXACT steering currents guiding Ike right now. Also one that reflects the ridge that's supposed to build in the SE US. Thanks...

[dhweather]

Meanwhile, Ray Nagin picks up his batphone and calls the NHC

"you SURE this is going to turn back west"

[tolakram]

[HouTXmetro]

Looks WNW now.

edit.... ok maybe not, NW

[Stormcenter]

Looks WNW now.

edit.... ok maybe not, NW

Don't doubt yourself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Steve]

>>big difference about the EC of Florida
>>It is not susceptible to high surges (except for Biscayne Bay)

Agreed and I wasn't bashing Florida. It's just that we all live where there are possible disasters that could wipe us off the map. Many of us in these locations (such as you and I) are taxpaying citizens of these United States of America. Regardless of the digs that other poster wanted to get in, he or she will never know the meaning of home here. I don't really care what their opinion is either. McCities can be manufactured and are all over the southern United States. But those places never have the vibe of a New Orleans, Austin, Miami (even though it's a newer city per se') or Key West. People not from these types of places will never understand.

[Air Force Met]

that is a pretty big track adjustment from the naked eye...would put houston definitely in cat 1 winds if that verified

Not per their discusssion.

Stop reading so much into the discussions. They don't know where to put landfall...whether it will follow the line into Brazoria county...or curve around and come in near central Matagorda county.

Please stop saying "per the NHC discussion"...because most of the time...there is stop you aren't being told...

And for good reason.

[El Nino]

If tonight NHC track veryfies, Houston will almost be in the eyewall.

[SoupBone]

Looks WNW now.

edit.... ok maybe not, NW

Don't doubt yourself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

That's still obviously NW but following right along with the topical points and doesn't appear to be out of the ordinary.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What is amazing is that this is still forecast to be a 55KT storm with gusts to 65KT inland near Waco! Then, as it curves NE (not in the straight line shown on the NHC graphic, but rather a gradual bend), I wouldn't even be surprised to hear about this thing producing sustained tropical force winds in parts of Dallas/Fort Worth and then up into Southeast Oklahoma. Pretty impressive inland event this will be...especially since along with the wind there will also be buckets of rain and an isolated tornado threat.

[PTPatrick]

Whats JB's take. I know he has Houston connections so i am sure he is not being mum on this one....1900 repeat?


How close will the center go to Crawford, TX???...

[Evac3]

Exact day of the week, exact time... RITA. I'm SO OUTTA HERE TONIGHT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Whats JB's take. I know he has Houston connections so i am sure he is not being mum on this one....1900 repeat?


How close will the center go to Crawford, TX???...

JB is similar to Derek's latest...

[tolakram]

For the track it might make more sense to look at the Navy NRL graphic which shows the curve. THis is from the 5pm advisory, latest not posted yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Whats JB's take. I know he has Houston connections so i am sure he is not being mum on this one....1900 repeat?


How close will the center go to Crawford, TX???...

JB is similar to Derek's latest...

JB just updated, says NHC 10 pm forecast is now as scary as his.