ATL: IKE Discussion

[PTPatrick]

80 to a hundred sustained aint nothing to mess with...hattiesburg mississippi recieved about that in katrina eastern eyewall 70 mils inland and the poor town looked like it had been hit with a tornado. My brother was without power for 10 days. Heck in Mobile I was without power 7 in katrina and it had gotten maybe a few Hurricane force Gusts.


Also my aunt near Hattiesburg mississippi lives in a well consturected brick home and lost much her roof, one window, and about 8 pine trees that magically fell around her house. They were in the closet during the eyewall passage of Katrina and said it sounded like armageddon.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like the outer eyewall's starting to take over, wouldn't be surprised to see winds catch up to the pressure tonight or in the morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Exact day of the week, exact time... RITA. I'm SO OUTTA HERE TONIGHT.

Cameron is still in the cone, doesn't look good for Texas now, but it isn't impossible for a Louisiana hit, based on the cone.

Ed - Keep in mind that the posted image is a track for RITA and not for IKE.

None the less, the current 3-day cone for IKE is almost an exact replica..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 06W_sm.gif

[teal61]

Question for Houston residents... I have family on the Harris/Montgomery County border (about 45 min NW of Houston), and I'm just wondering based on the current track what kind of conditions they will receive? I'm guessing ts force winds because they're so far inland, but is it possible that they get hurricane force winds? The reason I am asking is because they're taking this extremely lightly.

FWIW local TV weather guy (13) said winds from Houston area up the area you are talking about could be between 75 and 100mph based on current track. Somewhere else i saw predictions of 80 to 100, think that was by Jeff Lindner on his latest update. I live in the Spring/Woodlands area which is probably pretty close to where you are speaking of.

[haml8]

Derek, Wxman57, AFM .. I am in Katy roughly 35 miles 40 miles WEST of Houston, from what I can tell if the storm comes up through Freeport heading North the proximity of the eye will be very close correct? Will I see significant hurricane force winds here inland do you think? I looked at the NHC wind field potential and all I can come up with is a 20% chance. If that is not accurate then what should I look at to give me a better idea. hopefully this will help others on the board and not just me.
Thanks in advance for all you do on here..

a direct hit may bring you sustained cane winds with gusts over 100

however, more likely is hurricane force GUSTS.

Thanks again Derek, I appreciate the analysis. I hope you get some rest when this is all over with..

[smw1981]

80 to a hundred sustained aint nothing to mess with...hattiesburg mississippi recieved about that in katrina eastern eyewall 70 mils inland and the poor town looked like it had been hit with a tornado. My brother was without power for 10 days. Heck in Mobile I was without power 7 in katrina and it had gotten maybe a few Hurricane force Gusts.

I think I heard that Hattiesburg lost somewhere around half of their pine trees during Katrina. (If there are trees around the house, they could be IN the house by Sunday.) Both water and electricity were out for days. (I have no idea why the water was out, but I know it was..) There is no way I would "take this lightly" at this point, with Ike getting so close...

[lbvbl]

Question for Houston residents... I have family on the Harris/Montgomery County border (about 45 min NW of Houston), and I'm just wondering based on the current track what kind of conditions they will receive? I'm guessing ts force winds because they're so far inland, but is it possible that they get hurricane force winds? The reason I am asking is because they're taking this extremely lightly.

FWIW local TV weather guy (13) said winds from Houston area up the area you are talking about could be between 75 and 100mph based on current track. Somewhere else i saw predictions of 80 to 100, think that was by Jeff Lindner on his latest update. I live in the Spring/Woodlands area which is probably pretty close to where you are speaking of.

yeah they're in the tomball/magnolia area and planning to fly out of town on friday (to visit friends) and I warned them about the possibility of their flight being cancelled and they seem convinced they're safe

[smw1981]

80 to a hundred sustained aint nothing to mess with...hattiesburg mississippi recieved about that in katrina eastern eyewall 70 mils inland and the poor town looked like it had been hit with a tornado. My brother was without power for 10 days. Heck in Mobile I was without power 7 in katrina and it had gotten maybe a few Hurricane force Gusts.

I think I heard that Hattiesburg lost somewhere around half of their pine trees during Katrina. (If there are trees around the house, they could be fallen trees on Sunday.) Both water and electricity were out for days. (I have no idea why the water was out, but I know it was..) There is no way I would "take this lightly" at this point, with Ike getting so close...

[soonertwister]

Derek, Wxman57, AFM .. I am in Katy roughly 35 miles 40 miles WEST of Houston, from what I can tell if the storm comes up through Freeport heading North the proximity of the eye will be very close correct? Will I see significant hurricane force winds here inland do you think? I looked at the NHC wind field potential and all I can come up with is a 20% chance. If that is not accurate then what should I look at to give me a better idea. hopefully this will help others on the board and not just me.
Thanks in advance for all you do on here..

a direct hit may bring you sustained cane winds with gusts over 100

however, more likely is hurricane force GUSTS.

Thanks again Derek, I appreciate the analysis. I hope you get some rest when this is all over with..

Derek, is this your estimate in variance from NHC? Because from what I can see, it's not worth the risk to even guess how high the winds might be.

[teal61]

Question for Houston residents... I have family on the Harris/Montgomery County border (about 45 min NW of Houston), and I'm just wondering based on the current track what kind of conditions they will receive? I'm guessing ts force winds because they're so far inland, but is it possible that they get hurricane force winds? The reason I am asking is because they're taking this extremely lightly.

FWIW local TV weather guy (13) said winds from Houston area up the area you are talking about could be between 75 and 100mph based on current track. Somewhere else i saw predictions of 80 to 100, think that was by Jeff Lindner on his latest update. I live in the Spring/Woodlands area which is probably pretty close to where you are speaking of.

yeah they're in the tomball/magnolia area and planning to fly out of town on friday (to visit friends) and I warned them about the possibility of their flight being cancelled and they seem convinced they're safe

Far as the flight goes, its hard to say. I am an air traffic controller in Houston but i have been off the last 2 days so i don't have any idea what the airlines might be planning. Earlier the better though i am sure.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

[Tireman4]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.


Are you sure?

[smw1981]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

Fairly good news for Houston, not so good news for the area that just got slapped by Gustav (since they would be on the east side...) Lots of rain in a rain soaked area...

[soonertwister]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

This is speculation. You are imagining that the path will turn east from currently forecast. Please precede such conjecture with a disclaimer.

[fasterdisaster]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

Fairly good news for Houston, not so good news for the area that just got slapped by Gustav (since they would be on the east side...) Lots of rain in a rain soaked area...

Uh...you guys, this is just his opinion. The NHC has said nothing to indicate this is a done deal. The middle of the cone is left of Houston.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.


Are you sure?

It's my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked if it hit Cameron Parish, LA, at this point. We'll see. I'm watching the same thing as everyone else and I'm forming thoughts just like the rest.

[inda_iwall]

Hmmmm...further north and east now huh? Who ever would have thought that?

[Bolebuns]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

Fairly good news for Houston, not so good news for the area that just got slapped by Gustav (since they would be on the east side...) Lots of rain in a rain soaked area...

Uh...you guys, this is just his opinion. The NHC has said nothing to indicate this is a done deal. The middle of the cone is left of Houston.

Geesh...either these guys know something the NHC doesn't, or they slept in a Holiday Inn last nite.

[teal61]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

Fairly good news for Houston, not so good news for the area that just got slapped by Gustav (since they would be on the east side...) Lots of rain in a rain soaked area...

I think what you meant to say is would be fairly good news for Houston. As it is now we need another shift or two up the coast to be east of Houston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.


Are you sure?

It's my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked if it hit Cameron Parish, LA, at this point. We'll see. I'm watching the same thing as everyone else and I'm forming thoughts just like the rest.

Cameron is in the cone...