A little jog to the NW???

[The_Cycloman_PR]

I know we can't only trust on infrared images but if you look at the last pics of the moviloop floater satellite you will see an evident wnw turn of the entire pakage and not only convection enhancement(the south edge is also moving to the wnw). That change of movement could later be confirmed if NHC make track corrections on their next bolletins or if tomorow the recon find the center of circulation more north of where it's suposed to be right now. It could be a flare up of convection to the north, but right now I don't think so. I believe that the entire package of the TD could be changing a little it's movement from a westward motion into a just north of due west or a west-northwest motion. Also the movement of the system appear to be slowing down a little. Just my 2 cents.


Coments always welcome!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg


Cycloman

[cycloneye]

Yes I can see that north jog but we have to be careful because maybe the convection is expanding but I see too that the system as a whole has a slight northern component to it.

[wow]

If it is, it is definitely a sign of significant strengthening. This gal might end up NORTH of PR. :o

[Stormsfury]

I noticed that jog as well in which that convective burst may be in response to being a little more influenced by upper currents or just temporary ... anyway, some information may be suggesting the LLC is under the convection and not on the SW edge now ...

SF

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Stormfury...Can you explain your coment of the info you received about the center being under the convection?? Official info??

If you have them, please post some links to it!

Thank's

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Stormfury...Can you explain your coment of the info you received about the center being under the convection?? Official info??

If you have them, please post some links to it!

Thank's

[Stormsfury]

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas26.png

QuikScat a little inconclusive ... (no data right where I need it the most)

Visible floater showing some interesting changes as well
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[mf_dolphin]

I don't think what we're seeing is a real jog. It looks more like the convection is just expanding a bit. Tomorrow we will know for sure if it's really jogged or not. The system has gotten better looking today for sure.

[Stormsfury]

The center based on the last light and IR at night ... around 14.0ºN ...

[wxman57]

It sure is difficult to determine motion when you can't see the center. If you just let your eyes follow that bright blob of convection, it does appear to be moving toward about 290-300 degrees. However, if you ignore the blob of convection and concentrate on the light gray lower clouds, then I think you may be able to detect an emerging lower level (not necessarily at surface) circulation center near the SOUTH edge of the convection. If that is the case, then what we are seeing is the convection moving to the north side of the circulation but the circulation remaining on a 275-280 deg track.

[wow]

It sure is difficult to determine motion when you can't see the center. If you just let your eyes follow that bright blob of convection, it does appear to be moving toward about 290-300 degrees. However, if you ignore the blob of convection and concentrate on the light gray lower clouds, then I think you may be able to detect an emerging lower level (not necessarily at surface) circulation center near the SOUTH edge of the convection. If that is the case, then what we are seeing is the convection moving to the north side of the circulation but the circulation remaining on a 275-280 deg track.

UL winds shift take the cloudtops more to the north while the surface winds continue west.

Anyway, i think i'm sticking with a UKMET type track