ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

940 and no eye makes you think this hasn't reached its peak yet.

[Texas Snowman]

What's really scary is that with the pressure dropping, it looks to me as if this storm is really starting to get ventilated well.

Jeff Masters' statement about a 3 by morning could be too low - maybe a 4 by morning if the wind catches up with the pressure fall.

If the track forecast remains similar and this thing intensifies greatly overnight, tomorrow will be a miserable day for a lot of coastal residents getting out of harm's way.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon is still Northwest of the storm, and not at operational level, per latest HDOB #6

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?


Not sure how anyone knows pressure is falling since last plane left...

[Stormcenter]

Not to be rude, but for the life of me, I can't understand anyone "wanting" a hurricane like Ike to go anywhere, Texas, Louisiana, or otherwise.

If the intensity and track forecasts verify, in my totally unofficial opinion, there could be plenty of casualties if people can't or won't evacuate. The damage is likely to be well into in the billions of dollars. Weeks of misery without electricity or water. Months to rebuild and repair damage.

If someone "wants" this hurricane, by all means, sign up for it.

Because I can guarantee you tonight that nobody in their right mind in Texas wants a Carla-esque storm roaring into Houston/Galveston. Or for that matter, an Alicia-esque storm. Heck, any storm.

Now back to regular programming...

I ask myself that all the time. Anyway I'm still hoping for one those "Lili" type
miraculously weakening storms as it approaches the coast.

[jdjaguar]

But, still no eye......

recon identified 7 mile eye closed wall.

[dwg71]

at this angle Ike will go through some shallow waters, so maybe it could weaken as it approached

[Stormcenter]

But, still no eye......

That's probably the most puzzling thing about this storm so far.
You would think a Cat.2-3 storm would have a pretty significant eye
by now.

[Stormcenter]

But, still no eye......

recon identified 7 mile eye closed wall.

No wonder we can't see it on satellite. It's too small.

[jdjaguar]

Recon is still Northwest of the storm, and not at operational level, per latest HDOB #6

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?


Not sure how anyone knows pressure is falling since last plane left...

not saying its falling since last recon..just providing data from last recon.

lets hope its not still falling, ..otherwise its bombing.

[Sean in New Orleans]

But, still no eye......

recon identified 7 mile eye closed wall.

No wonder we can't see it on satellite. It's too small.

Exactly!!!! At least we know it's there!

[Aristotle]

Not to be rude, but for the life of me, I can't understand anyone "wanting" a hurricane like Ike to go anywhere, Texas, Louisiana, or otherwise.

If the intensity and track forecasts verify, in my totally unofficial opinion, there could be plenty of casualties if people can't or won't evacuate. The damage is likely to be well into in the billions of dollars. Weeks of misery without electricity or water. Months to rebuild and repair damage.

If someone "wants" this hurricane, by all means, sign up for it.

Because I can guarantee you tonight that nobody in their right mind in Texas wants a Carla-esque storm roaring into Houston/Galveston. Or for that matter, an Alicia-esque storm. Heck, any storm.

Now back to regular programming...

It constantly amazes me that people don't or won't make the connection to why people "want" a hurricane or other life altering event to occur near or on them.

It seems quite simple to me. Which is not to say that people want to see devastation. What people want is the unity and strength of community and closeness that comes hand in hand with disaster. Humans want to be tested. We want to know how we'd act in a particular situation or set of circumstances.

We as a race don't crave destruction we desire the knowledge of what it would feel like to be a hero. And being forced into action by undeniable circumstances makes us believe that we could gain that knowledge.

We as a race don't crave destruction we crave community and heroism because it seems to be gone from our real lives and only exists on the boob tube.

I'm almost 400 miles from the coast so I'm not commenting on me. But I can understand why people do what you call -removed-. And frankly I think it appeals to the better side of our human condition. I see nothing wrong with it.

Now before someone goes off on me and tells me I'm ridiculous and stupid I would like to preface this with this statement again: I do not believe people want death and destruction. I believe that we disconnect from that. Everyone wants to be a hero. Is that such a bad quality?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1046 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE SLOWLY HEADED NORTHWESTWARD...

.AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY...AND
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE
IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...AND
IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.


LAZ027>033-042>045-055-TXZ180>182-111000-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-EVANGELINE-JASPER-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-NEWTON-RAPIDES-
ST. LANDRY-TYLER-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERNON-
1046 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...
IKE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...EVANGELINE...JASPER...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...NEWTON...
RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...TYLER...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IF THE TRACK OF IKE DRIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. AS IS THE CASE DURING ANY TROPICAL
SYSTEM...ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS MAY SEE FLASH
FLOODING.

...WINDS...
FOR TYLER...JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FROM 45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ON
THURSDAY.

...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM THURSDAY.

$$
TRARES

[Senobia]

Not to be rude, but for the life of me, I can't understand anyone "wanting" a hurricane like Ike to go anywhere, Texas, Louisiana, or otherwise.

If the intensity and track forecasts verify, in my totally unofficial opinion, there could be plenty of casualties if people can't or won't evacuate. The damage is likely to be well into in the billions of dollars. Weeks of misery without electricity or water. Months to rebuild and repair damage.

If someone "wants" this hurricane, by all means, sign up for it.

Because I can guarantee you tonight that nobody in their right mind in Texas wants a Carla-esque storm roaring into Houston/Galveston. Or for that matter, an Alicia-esque storm. Heck, any storm.

Now back to regular programming...

Ditto...and I'd like to add that all the 'My prayers are with you, Texas' and "Godspeed, coastal residents" is just a TAD alarming, given the current state of affairs down here. It's as if you're reading from our eulogy already.

Back off that stuff, would you? We're here for information, not gloom and doom.

[Aristotle]

Recon is still Northwest of the storm, and not at operational level, per latest HDOB #6

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?


Not sure how anyone knows pressure is falling since last plane left...

not saying its falling since last recon..just providing data from last recon.

lets hope its not still falling, ..otherwise its bombing.

940 was the last

[Bolebuns]

I have been watching the ability of banding to survive on the western quad today. It looked like it was getting pushed "flat", or dealing with drier air. No sure if it is relevant, but looking better now, as it is beginning to intensify.

[jdjaguar]

Not to be rude, but for the life of me, I can't understand anyone "wanting" a hurricane like Ike to go anywhere, Texas, Louisiana, or otherwise.

If the intensity and track forecasts verify, in my totally unofficial opinion, there could be plenty of casualties if people can't or won't evacuate. The damage is likely to be well into in the billions of dollars. Weeks of misery without electricity or water. Months to rebuild and repair damage.

If someone "wants" this hurricane, by all means, sign up for it.

Because I can guarantee you tonight that nobody in their right mind in Texas wants a Carla-esque storm roaring into Houston/Galveston. Or for that matter, an Alicia-esque storm. Heck, any storm.

Now back to regular programming...

It constantly amazes me that people don't or won't make the connection to why people "want" a hurricane or other life altering event to occur near or on them.

It seems quite simple to me. Which is not to say that people want to see devastation. What people want is the unity and strength of community and closeness that comes hand in hand with disaster. Humans want to be tested. We want to know how we'd act in a particular situation or set of circumstances.

We as a race don't crave destruction we desire the knowledge of what it would feel like to be a hero. And being forced into action by undeniable circumstances makes us believe that we could gain that knowledge.

We as a race don't crave destruction we crave community and heroism because it seems to be gone from our real lives and only exists on the boob tube.

I'm almost 400 miles from the coast so I'm not commenting on me. But I can understand why people do what you call -removed-. And frankly I think it appeals to the better side of our human condition. I see nothing wrong with it.

Now before someone goes off on me and tells me I'm ridiculous and stupid I would like to preface this with this statement again: I do not believe people want death and destruction. I believe that we disconnect from that. Everyone wants to be a hero. Is that such a bad quality?

helluva a post my brother.

[soonertwister]

But, still no eye......

recon identified 7 mile eye closed wall.

No wonder we can't see it on satellite. It's too small.

That was 2-1/2 hours ago...

[Sean in New Orleans]

Aristotle, I think people on this board want to see purple clouds and stand in 80 mph winds. It's invigorating for this group. I don't think people want to see destruction. But, your post does give a different viewpoint of a hurricane. Never thought of it that way, but, I appreciate that angle!

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not sure how much it will matter if it weakens some on approach (and I think Jeff Masters has indicated that he thinks it can intensify all the way up to landfall and Derek has said that he sees little reason to believe this will weaken in WGOM).

I say that because as large as Ike's windfield has become, how widespread the hurricane force winds are, and the sheer size of this storm, someone is going to get a lot more water than they bargained for.

Not comparing this to Katrina yet, but it could easily bring Cat 4 or perhaps even a low end Cat 5 (Totally unofficial post there) storm surge to the coast.

And we all remember what that did to the Mississippi coastline a few years ago.

[Texashawk]

Not to be rude, but for the life of me, I can't understand anyone "wanting" a hurricane like Ike to go anywhere, Texas, Louisiana, or otherwise.

If the intensity and track forecasts verify, in my totally unofficial opinion, there could be plenty of casualties if people can't or won't evacuate. The damage is likely to be well into in the billions of dollars. Weeks of misery without electricity or water. Months to rebuild and repair damage.

If someone "wants" this hurricane, by all means, sign up for it.

Because I can guarantee you tonight that nobody in their right mind in Texas wants a Carla-esque storm roaring into Houston/Galveston. Or for that matter, an Alicia-esque storm. Heck, any storm.

Now back to regular programming...

I'm glad somebody has some sense around here! I swear, it's almost like people 'root' for these things to come pay them a visit!! WTH???