ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Ike is not Rita. I think chances are with this different setup (WNW turn to come into play soon.) the models will actually shift a bit back to the West by morning time.

I guess that means we go back to where we started.....the middle Texas coastline for landfall.

Anyway we are now a little over 2 days from landfall I believe the models are locking in. IMO

[HouTXmetro]

Ike is not Rita. I think chances are with this different setup (WNW turn to come into play soon.) the models will actually shift a bit back to the West by morning time.

I'm noticing more west now, we shall see what the models will do.

[Ed Mahmoud]

-80ºC cloud tops, looks almost like a West Pac storm.

[WxGuy1]

There is suppose to a consensus this close to landfall, not disagreement.

There is pretty good consensus given that we are 60-70 hours from landfall. I think the models are getting progressively better such that we all expect to see massive consensus now farther and farther out from landfall. It wasn't too many years ago that even 24 hour forecasts were terrible. These are, after all, still computer models, and, as sophisticated as they are getting, they are still are far from perfect. With that said, I'd expect changes all the way up to landfall, if we define "changes" as +/- 20 miles. This far out, I think there is pretty good consensus that Ike will make landfall somewhere between Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay. Expecting anything more specific than that may be a bit unreasonable, IMO. The problem with the landfall specifics is that they are going to depend upon a change in track, which is always difficult to forecast. Afterall, if the storm is moving nearly linearly with little change in the synoptic environment expected, the forecast is a bit easier. In this case, we're dealing with a non-linear interaction of Ike with an evolving environment (trough to the west, etc), which makes it more difficult to forecast.

I think vis sat will give us some good info after sunrise... It was very evident this afternoon that a wedge of dry air was being wrapped into the storm from the west, but we lost that view when the sun went down over the Gulf; it showed up much better on vis than on IR or WV (there were some thin cirrus over that dry slow, the IR still showed cold tops).

[Shawee]

Ike is not Rita. I think chances are with this different setup (WNW turn to come into play soon.) the models will actually shift a bit back to the West by morning time.

also the dry air it is encountering should, hopefully, hold off some intensification (THE achilles heel of the models and NHC in my NON PRO-MET opinion).

still batten-down-the-hatches time, and Ed is definitely buying!

[Air Force Met]

Ike is not Rita. I think chances are with this different setup (WNW turn to come into play soon.) the models will actually shift a bit back to the West by morning time.

I'm noticing more west now, we shall see what the models will do.

Considering most were forecasting this...probably not much.

We also haven't had recon in a while...and now we are in the eclipse...so you won't be able to notice anything new until recon gets there.

[Duddy]

Ike is not Rita. I think chances are with this different setup (WNW turn to come into play soon.) the models will actually shift a bit back to the West by morning time.

I'm noticing more west now, we shall see what the models will do.

Considering most were forecasting this...probably not much.

We also haven't had recon in a while...and now we are in the eclipse...so you won't be able to notice anything new until recon gets there.

So you don't think it will shift back west?

[dwg71]

AFM has stated just north of Matgorda Bay for a couple of days now.

[rainman]

Canadian has east of galveston.....

[Sanibel]

Model trends under an approaching trough should continue rightward. A shift back west would be against known science.

I'm not sure what the trough is doing but if GFDL performs as it has up to now Houston is very close as a landfall area. GFDL's tendency to go too far on the recurve and GFS's staying south of Houston would average out to close to Houston in my mind.

This could all change tomorrow if they keep going right.


Note: CMC went a little too far east on Fay at this range but nailed the general track.

[rainman]

I said it the other day that this reminds me a lot of Rita

[Extremeweatherguy]

[smw1981]

The way everything has been shifting, I really, really hope the people in Louisiana are prepared...just in case. Not because I think it will go there, but because I think that is a possibility and it would be horrible if Ike came knocking at their door and they weren't prepared.

[HouTXmetro]

Most recent?

[Jagno]

The way everything has been shifting, I really, really hope the people in Louisiana are prepared...just in case. Not because I think it will go there, but because I think that is a possibility and it would be horrible if Ike came knocking at their door and they weren't prepared.

We are ready, packed, loaded and ready to roll at the appropriate evacuation time assigned to each Zone or Tier as we call it here so that traffic flows smoothly. We've done this a time or 4 and Rita type shifting is still very fresh in our memories. We are prepared for the worst and praying for the best.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmm it's kind of hard to argue with the model consensus. IMO

[jrbaytown]

There is suppose to a consensus this close to landfall, not disagreement.

There is pretty good consensus given that we are 60-70 hours from landfall. I think the models are getting progressively better such that we all expect to see massive consensus now farther and farther out from landfall. It wasn't too many years ago that even 24 hour forecasts were terrible. These are, after all, still computer models, and, as sophisticated as they are getting, they are still are far from perfect. With that said, I'd expect changes all the way up to landfall, if we define "changes" as +/- 20 miles. This far out, I think there is pretty good consensus that Ike will make landfall somewhere between Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay. Expecting anything more specific than that may be a bit unreasonable, IMO. The problem with the landfall specifics is that they are going to depend upon a change in track, which is always difficult to forecast. Afterall, if the storm is moving nearly linearly with little change in the synoptic environment expected, the forecast is a bit easier. In this case, we're dealing with a non-linear interaction of Ike with an evolving environment (trough to the west, etc), which makes it more difficult to forecast.

I think vis sat will give us some good info after sunrise... It was very evident this afternoon that a wedge of dry air was being wrapped into the storm from the west, but we lost that view when the sun went down over the Gulf; it showed up much better on vis than on IR or WV (there were some thin cirrus over that dry slow, the IR still showed cold tops).

Thanks for the post wxguy1...live in Baytown...so I'm really watching this one and appreciate the insight.

So interesting to study, yet so many feelings going through you when a big one is on your own door step. To my south central and SE Texas and SW LA neighbors...take care and stay safe.

--RCJ

[Air Force Met]

I said it the other day that this reminds me a lot of Rita

If it is going to pull a Rita...we will know tomorrow I think. Rita's track and Ike's track are very close landfall wise and time-wise (even the right day of the week). The big shift in the models happened on Thursday morning. The 18z were clustered b/w Matagorda and GLS for Rita...then there was some spread at 00Z and 06Z. By 12z they had moved east of GLS into Chambers county.

Not saying it can't do it with Ike a little later...but we are running out of time. If there is going to be a big shift...it needs to happen tomorrow before the 4PM advisory. Either way...I don't think we have long to wait before we get this fairly nailed down (considering the size).

[Stormcenter]

The way everything has been shifting, I really, really hope the people in Louisiana are prepared...just in case. Not because I think it will go there, but because I think that is a possibility and it would be horrible if Ike came knocking at their door and they weren't prepared.

Except for SW La. the remainder of the LA. coast is not in the NHC's cone.
I'm sure if they thought there was a significant danger they would have put the entire
coastline under the cone and a Hurricane Watch. IMO

[HouTXmetro]

If that is the most recent, NHC guidance is slightly north. Not that it makes much of a difference unless determining if Houston will be on the clean or dirty side.