SSD Dvorak T number 2.0 for TD#6

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:21 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

They put the position at 13.6n-51.8w different from the 13.5n-53.6w at advisory of 8 PM.

The_Cycloman_PR · #2 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:30 pm

Those are TS numbers!

However last floater pic show convection dying out again and what appear to be a LLC just southwest of the main convection area as wxman57 said a short time ago.

Do you think the TD will be upgraded at 11pm advisory?

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:32 pm

wow · #4 Postby **wow** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:50 pm

Actually, it just MIGHT be upgraded if it continues at this rate.

Bastardi is also coming to the thought that she might be a Hispaniola hitter:

"The depressions blowup of convection this afternoon was also accompanied by the development of banded convection in advance of it and so the overall structure has improved. The storm may be upgraded tonight as it most likely has tropical storm winds on on the northern side of it. With the center gaining latitude the way it is, it means that probably will not run the Caribbean gauntlet but instead do battle with sinister hurricane smasher, the island of Hispaniola."

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:55 pm

If she hit Hispanola - then its going to tear her apart if she's a Tropical Storm or Hurricane - always does.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:59 pm

Cycloman PR a more complete answer from me to your question is that it is going to be a close call to upgrade at 11 PM because they can decide on both ways leave it a TD until 5 AM or upgrade at 11.

therock1811 · #7 Postby **therock1811** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:59 pm

going to affect this storm too much... if it did verify, I think it would certainly weaken, only it would just be to a 40-55mph storm...

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 7:59 pm

The_Cycloman_PR wrote:Those are TS numbers! However last floater pic show convection dying out again and what appear to be a LLC just southwest of the main convection area as wxman57 said a short time ago.

Do you think the TD will be upgraded at 11pm advisory?

Actually 2.0 is satellite derived of a 30 kt depression ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 8:01 pm

That center is 150 miles east of the real center. Therefore, the 2.0/2.0 is of little value, IMO

mf_dolphin · #10 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 8:16 pm

Hard to tell from IR but I still think the circulation is sout of the major convection. If that's the case then it's still on a more westerly track.

Superstorm · #11 Postby **Superstorm** » Sun Jul 20, 2003 8:23 pm

Random question, but has it ever snowed in the 10,000 mountains of Hispaniola?

SSD Dvorak T number 2.0 for TD#6

SSD Dvorak T number 2.0 for TD#6

well... I'm not too sure that's...

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