ATL: IKE Discussion

[artist]

Does anyone know when the updated forecast track comes out? Is it 5 am eastern time? Also, any idea on what the latest model runs looked like? I'm trying to figure out if the forecast will shift further east again. Thanks.

Welcome and here is the last page of the models thread. They should be able to answer your questions over there -
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102848&start=4020

[I-wall]

Does anyone know when the updated forecast track comes out? Is it 5 am eastern time? Also, any idea on what the latest model runs looked like? I'm trying to figure out if the forecast will shift further east again. Thanks.

Welcome and here is the last page of the models thread. They should be able to answer your questions over there -
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102848&start=4020

Much appreciated.

[Nexus]

New low-res G-13, but in color (05:40 UTC):



Musta just got out of it's own eclipse, too bad as G-12 is almost out of eclipse.

[Duddy]

New low-res G-13, but in color (05:40 UTC):

Man, hard to say if it will strengthen much before morning. Nice embryo shape, but man, looks alittle "sick". But I'm no met.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looks to me like the outer eye wall is really starting to take over now! This microwave image was from 3:10Z which is after the others I posted a page or 2 back that showed a very disorganized outer eye-wall!

[dwg71]

i wonder if recon will find anything to justify cat 2 status...

i think its more like 80 mph than 100, just my two cents and limited recon data.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

i wonder if recon will find anything to justify cat 2 status...

i think its more like 80 mph than 100, just my two cents and limited recon data.

Well they just found 86kt flight level winds which support 90mph and thats not even near the center.

[opera ghost]

I went to the HEB on Hiway 6 North around 7:30 tonight, figuring most people who stopped in after work would be gone. Wrong! The bread was gone, and serious dents being made in water, soft drinks, canned goods, pet food, etc. Plenty of Coronas though at 12.99 so I stocked up!

I bet tomorrow will be totally crazy at the grocery stores here in Houston, and although it was pretty darn busy tonight, it was still bearable. I've run my last errand so whatever happens... happens.

Hopped down to a Kroger inside the 610 loop (WestU area) around 10:30 and compared to the usual 10pm+ traffic (best time to go grocery shopping!) it was a zoo. Not as bad as the day before thanksgiving though- I'm glad I went this early. Tomorrow promises to be crazy. The stock boys were wheeling out flats of water and it was vanishing pretty fast- the water aisle consistently had 5+ people picking through what was left on the shelves/flats. I did find it hilarious that the shelves were bare of canned tuna. I guess everyone else shared my idea!

[Nexus]

Looping the images from the last several hours at the Navy site, it seems Ike is growing in size:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[fasterdisaster]

i wonder if recon will find anything to justify cat 2 status...

i think its more like 80 mph than 100, just my two cents and limited recon data.

90 kts flight level, Ike is probably still 100 mph.

[fasterdisaster]

How many hours should it be before the inner eyewall disappears? 6?

[fasterdisaster]

i wonder if recon will find anything to justify cat 2 status...

i think its more like 80 mph than 100, just my two cents and limited recon data.

90 kts flight level, Ike is probably still 100 mph.

Actually they found 93 kts I just saw, so he is definitely Category 2.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Note - this is not official and is just my own personal thoughts!

Ok here is what I expect to happen over the next 24 to 48 hours. Ike is clearly going through an eye-wall replacement cycle. I am basing this fact on many sources including recon data of a double wind maxima and Microwave images depicting the outer eye-wall. Over the course of the day today (9-11) I expect the outer eye-wall to completely take over and for the new larger eye to clear out by tonight. Through out the day today watch recon reports for weakening winds near the center and increasing winds around the outer wind maxima. Also watch the microwave data. Also Ike will be traveling over a cold eddy through out a good part of the day today after that the waters will be increasing in heat. Once the eye clears out it will continue to contract which will result in pressure falls and increases in wind speeds. I expect Ike will make landfall as a cat 3 or 4 Saturday morning between 5am and 6am. Storm surge of 10 to 15 feet above normal tides can be expected to the north of where the center makes landfall with 20+ foot waves on top of that. (Surge may have to be upgraded or downgraded based on actual strength at landfall.)

Today - Expect no large change in strength during the eye-wall replacement cycle. Ike may even weakening some in the short term until the ERC is completed!

This is a serious situation and SHOULD NOT be taking lightly. If you are in a flood prone area along the texas coast be prepared to evacuate when told to do so by your local law enforcement officials. Every thing to save life and property SHOULD BE RUSHED to completion. Because of Ike's large size condition could start going down hill as early as Friday morning.

[dwg71]

just saw that, 95 mph at a 90 percent reduction.. is that what is used at this level or is it 85

[Duddy]

Well if the GFDL holds true, it says Ike will be a strong cat 3 within 6 hours.

[WxGuy1]

Yeah, still looks like some dry air may be inhibiting intensification and organization a bit (along with the double wind max structure). For example, note the patch of drier air in the western Gulf at

The dry air was evident as a wedge of much weaker convection on visible satellite earlier today. At this stage, Ike still has time to organize and intensify to Cat 4 status, but we shall see. The size of the TS-strength winds and the low central pressure may make the surge more a player than would otherwise be expected.

[Evac3]

You have GOT to be kidding me... TWC is gonna run "It Could Happen Tomorrow" with this hurricane two days away? What the heck?

[Brent]

Eclipse over, you can see that dry slot on the west side:

[Duddy]

OK, I'll go to bed if someone answers this with atleast SOME confidence.

Since the models have converged again on Matagorda, do you expect the NHC track to shift back down the coast? Because only one model takes it near Galveston.

The 5AM track determines whether or not I leave.

[dwg71]

duddy, its already near matagorda. i would not expect and change in path.. landfall just north of matagorda bay