ATL: IKE Discussion

[Duddy]

There is no way the NHC will overestimate the intensity. They NEVER do that. They always underestimate.

[dwg71]

duddy many times in discussions they will set intensity and then tell you, its probably a little generous, so they do overestimate, quite often as a matter of fact.

[superfly]

There is no way the NHC will overestimate the intensity. They NEVER do that. They always underestimate.

Sure they do, Gustav.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

good news would be no more intensifiction, better news would be some weakening.

intensity forecasts are soooo tough.

Yes that would be good news for those in Ike's path but you can't count on it. Every one in its path should still take this storm for what it is and could become. People in its path should still be ready for a cat 3/4 at landfall and hope for the best! I was having a talk with my mom yesterday about how we needed to get a disaster safety kit and she said we didn't need one because we didn't live in an area that got very many disasters (we live in Maine). I told her that we should still be prepared in the event that something did happen. She started saying that all we had to do was Trust in God and he would protect us. (we are both christians and my mom is very active in our church.) I told her that yes we should trust in God but at the same time we should also be prepared in the case something does happen. So yes hope and pray or whatever you do that this thing weakens before landfall but at the same time be prepared just the same.

[fasterdisaster]

Kinda early to talk about this storm being a cat 2 at landfall, don't you think? He has double wind maxima, yes it's taking a while but he is likely going to become a major hurricane today once his inner eyewall dies. This could take anywhere from 4-15 hours really.

[Rod Hagen]

Isn't this about the time the earlier predictions were for some loss of intensity, followed by further strengthening as it headed for the coast?

[gilbert88]

Is the "Ike is dying" talk starting THIS early?

Unbelievable...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Kinda early to talk about this storm being a cat 2 at landfall, don't you think? He has double wind maxima, yes it's taking a while but he is likely going to become a major hurricane today once his inner eyewall dies. This could take anywhere from 4-15 hours really.

Katrina did something like this. All day saturday Katrina was going through an eye wall replacement cycle. Every one was thinking it wasn't going to be as bad as what they were thinking then over night saturday night Katrina finished her EWRC and cleared out this huge eye and bombed to a cat 5 low 900mb Monster. I am not saying thats going to happen with Ike but just because it looks bad right now doesn't mean it will 24 hours from now or even 5 hours from now.

[dwg71]

Kinda early to talk about this storm being a cat 2 at landfall, don't you think? He has double wind maxima, yes it's taking a while but he is likely going to become a major hurricane today once his inner eyewall dies. This could take anywhere from 4-15 hours really.

just pointing out there has not been any real intensification for the past 12 hours. it may intensify, it could stay a cat 2, or it could even weaken. The odds are that it would intensify. NHC forecast from 12 hours ago forecasted 110 mph winds. but there has been no change. intensity is a lot tougher than track to predict.

[gilbert88]

Kinda early to talk about this storm being a cat 2 at landfall, don't you think? He has double wind maxima, yes it's taking a while but he is likely going to become a major hurricane today once his inner eyewall dies. This could take anywhere from 4-15 hours really.

Katrina did something like this. All day saturday Katrina was going through an eye wall replacement cycle. Every one was thinking it wasn't going to be as bad as what they were thinking then over night saturday night Katrina finished her EWRC and cleared out this huge eye and bombed to a cat 5 low 900mb Monster. I am not saying thats going to happen with Ike but just because it looks bad right now doesn't mean it will 24 hours from now or even 5 hours from now.

Exactly! In fact, people were referring to Katrina a "dud" hours after its first landfall in Louisiana.

Some seem to think that downplaying storms and repeatedly forecasting weakening or crazy tracks into other countries somehow will make it happen. Superstition?

It's really bad that Ike most likely will impact somewhere as a major hurricane, but it doesn't help anyone to misinform and put a spin on data or NHC forecasts.

Sorry for the derail.

[dwg71]

ok guys stay on task, i never predicted weakening or a cat 2 at landfall..

reread the post.

all i said it wasnt strengthening atm that was good news, and it would be better if it weakend.

back to ike

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Kinda early to talk about this storm being a cat 2 at landfall, don't you think? He has double wind maxima, yes it's taking a while but he is likely going to become a major hurricane today once his inner eyewall dies. This could take anywhere from 4-15 hours really.

just pointing out there has not been any real intensification for the past 12 hours. it may intensify, it could stay a cat 2, or it could even weaken. The odds are that it would intensify. NHC forecast from 12 hours ago forecasted 110 mph winds. but there has been no change. intensity is a lot tougher than track to predict.

It hasn't strengthened in the past 12 hours because its stuck in its EWRC. Once finished theres nothing to stop it from strengthen into a cat 3 like the NHC is forecasting. The process is well underway with the outer wind maxima taking over. If by 11am Friday Ike is still a cat 2 100mph hurricane then maybe your right and the NHC's forecast will be to high but until then theres no reason it should be!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

A southeast to Northwest pass is now being setup.

[Duddy]

Anyone staying up for the 4AM advisory?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Yeah I will be staying up all night again tonight for like the 4th night in a row. (I sleep some during the day)

[dwg71]

Anyone staying up for the 4AM advisory?

yes, i guess an extension of the previous track, intensity of 100mph now and forecast to get to 125 prior to lanfall.

[bob rulz]

Anyone staying up for the 4AM advisory?

Yep. I'm always up this late anyway, hurricane or not.

[keithy joe]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK. Who on here are from the areas that are due to be affected by Hurricane IKE?

[Duddy]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK. Who on here are from the areas that are due to be affected by Hurricane IKE?

3:30 AM here in the central Texas coast.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK. Who on here are from the areas that are due to be affected by Hurricane IKE?

Its 4:30am here on the east coast right now! lol

Not to much longer until my mom gets up and then I can get something to eat! (Our snack food was just bought yesterday and its still in the living room where my mom is sleeping!)