ATL: IKE Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
physicx07
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 215
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 7:46 am
Location: Miami

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8781 Postby physicx07 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:27 am

Wave height at buoy 42001 is really starting to climb...over 25 feet and climbing fast. That's around 100 miles away from Ike and looks to be right in the path.
0 likes   

Rod Hagen
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 237
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland

Re: Re:

#8782 Postby Rod Hagen » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:28 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
Rod Hagen wrote:Am I correct in thinking that Ike is about to move into the area of a thermal anomaly in the GOM, as shown at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8253go.jpg ?


He's actually departing the first one and will pass a bit north of the second one.



I thought it had been out of the first one for a while, now, Chris. Last location I saw was 88ºW , 25.3ºN which has the core about to travel across the northern edge of the second anomaly by my reckoning if it maintains its wnw course. - OK, it is skating the edge, but will still presumably be influenced by it.

How much do the higher SSTemps in the west of the Gulf matter now, too.

Cheers

Rod
Last edited by Rod Hagen on Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

#8783 Postby gboudx » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:29 am

Jeff Lidner just sent this email update.

Mandatory Evacuation for Harris County for the following Zip Codes:

77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77571, 77586, 77598

Other other residents need to shelter in place...we must let the coastal folks get out.

Harris County govt and City of Houston will be closed Friday
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#8784 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:31 am

Cool image Hurakan ,you can see a convectiv e burst in those of eyewalls I think, probably the forming outer one.
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#8785 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:35 am

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Still dealing with dry air, it seems that pockets keep finding its way to the center, another one is on its way.

Cloud tops have cooled somewhat as well.
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Re:

#8786 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:40 am

dwg71 wrote:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Still dealing with dry air, it seems that pockets keep finding its way to the center, another one is on its way.

Cloud tops have cooled somewhat as well.


Could it be the double eyewalls, hence the reason for the "appearance" of dry air?
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re:

#8787 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:43 am

dwg71 wrote:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Still dealing with dry air, it seems that pockets keep finding its way to the center, another one is on its way.

Cloud tops have cooled somewhat as well.


Thats not dry air per say but the moat inbetween the eyewalls, in other words Ike has pretty much been in one prolonged EWRC ever since it arrived at Cuba the first time round :eek:
0 likes   

pablolopez26
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 137
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:10 pm

#8788 Postby pablolopez26 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:48 am

Hey, i for one am glad that Ike has a 945 pressure reading and is still a Cat 2 storm. For me, i hope Houston gets a weak Category 2 or 3 storm.

I say that knowing full well that this is going to be nasty here soon.

But Houston cant afford to take on a Category 4 or 5 storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8789 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:52 am

wow, I didn't expect to wake up to a cane that's having so many problems getting organized. I'm starting to think this won't make it to a Cat3 now....I know they are preparing folks for it, but it doesn't look any better to me than it did last night...Cat 2 is still bad, but nothing like a high cat 3 or cat 4
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#8790 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:53 am

Although not likely , could Ike suprise us and Hit Cat 4 Status?
0 likes   

User avatar
mpic
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 622
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:24 am
Location: Splendora, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8791 Postby mpic » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:55 am

Why aren't they doing a mandatory for all of Galveston County?
0 likes   

User avatar
carversteve
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 161
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:40 am

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8792 Postby carversteve » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:56 am

Is that not a small eye forming in the center of Ike?? Thought i seen one.
0 likes   

southmdwatcher
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:35 am

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8793 Postby southmdwatcher » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:56 am

Ike is pushing a lot of water around in the Gulf due to its size. Ike may not need to be a CAT 3 or stronger to be a destructive hit on the coast. In another forum there is a pic from Dauphin Island Alabama, and there is already as much surge right now as Gustav produced.
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

Re: Re:

#8794 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:56 am

KWT wrote:
dwg71 wrote:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Still dealing with dry air, it seems that pockets keep finding its way to the center, another one is on its way.

Cloud tops have cooled somewhat as well.


Thats not dry air per say but the moat inbetween the eyewalls, in other words Ike has pretty much been in one prolonged EWRC ever since it arrived at Cuba the first time round :eek:



Makes sense, maybe it will stay low end cat one for the entire run... Wishful thinking, but nhc has a 40 percent chance of it not making it back to Cat 3, and a 18% chance it will be a cat 1.
0 likes   

User avatar
keithy joe
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 22
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:46 am
Location: England - UK (Plymouth)
Contact:

Re: Re:

#8795 Postby keithy joe » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:56 am

KWT wrote:
dwg71 wrote:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Still dealing with dry air, it seems that pockets keep finding its way to the center, another one is on its way.

Cloud tops have cooled somewhat as well.


Thats not dry air per say but the moat inbetween the eyewalls, in other words Ike has pretty much been in one prolonged EWRC ever since it arrived at Cuba the first time round :eek:


KWT where in the UK are you mate?
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8796 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:56 am

:?: :?: :uarrow: :uarrow:
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#8797 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:58 am

Its possible HouTXmetro, starting to become a little less likely with all the eyewalls but certainly possible.

CZ, ev en if it does come ashore as a top end 2, the shear size of Ike is going to cause huge problems, the surge will no doubt be very large thanks to the mammoth size of Ike and the cat-1 conditions arew going to extend way up the coast and probably quite far inland as well I'd guess. Added to that is the fact that once somewhere close to where landfall will be has hurricane force, they may have for many many hours.

I'm in Essex by the way :D
Last edited by KWT on Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

inda_iwall

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8798 Postby inda_iwall » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:58 am

There is no way, in my opinion of course, this thing gets to a 4. The dry air it sucked in yesterday has created the separation of eyewalls, you can see that by viewing a long loop of it. Gustav was an awful looking strom and so is this. Both have been overhyped in order to save lives, which I understand and appreciate as most of the general public are ignorant when it comes to the power of a storm. Now will it do no damage, of course not, will it be catastrophic like Ivan or Katrina, no. I believe one of the hardest and most stressful jobs would be with the NHC. I cannot even imagine having a job that has so many ramifications on so many lives. Would tear an ulcer the size of Ike in my stomach. :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re:

#8799 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:59 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Although not likely , could Ike suprise us and Hit Cat 4 Status?



Extremely doubtful for a cat4 now. It's just not that type of system and once the outflow gets over land it will choke it off a bit anyway...If it can't get it's act together now, I don't see how it will do it later.
0 likes   

niner21
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 11:06 am

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8800 Postby niner21 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:02 am

If we have a cat 4 much destruction will ensue in Houston.

I must say that I believe that even though you have insurance that many companies will be completely bankrupt if this is a large deal of damage. There is probably 1 trillion in property in the Houston metro area and I just don't see there being that much reinsurance able to manage these claims.

The Texas Windstorm company only has about 1 billion in reserves. Galveston island homes probably total a good 100-200 million in insured property alone. Most insurance companies halted wind coverage in tier one and tier two counties about 2 years ago. That leaves the Windstorm pool to pick up that coverage.

Also, FEMA is reeling from Katrina claims (and Allison) still (hence the rate increase over last year). This could be a nightmare collecting on flood insurance.


All in all this will (if it hits houston as a large storm) create a real ripple effect in the NATIONAL economy. I fear a Florida home insurance situation.



Please keep your policies paid up today and gather the policy numbers and the carrier at the minimum. Preferably look on the internet for your carrier's claim center numbers. Many will have catchy ones like 1800-54-storm (allstate). Keep these in your wallet and once the storm passes take pictures and MITIGATE your damage (meaning shut off water/ gas, put some tarps on and reduce any additional damage).

Good luck to all!!!
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests