ATL: IKE Discussion

[keithy joe]

Although not likely , could Ike suprise us and Hit Cat 4 Status?

Extremely doubtful for a cat4 now. It's just not that type of system and once the outflow gets over land it will choke it off a bit anyway...If it can't get it's act together now, I don't see how it will do it later.

Does it not head closer to the loop current!?

[Windy]

I think it's interesting that people get so focused on the category numbers. A small CAT 4 storm is a very big deal for whereever it landfalls. A Cat 2 storm with Cat 2 winds 110 miles away from center and TS winds nearly a few hundred miles away is HUGE storm that spanks an ENORMOUS swath of land with wind and surge, and for a much longer time. What makes a storm a Cat 2 or a Cat 4 is only the maximum sustained winds, which usually only extend out a small distance from the center or circulation. In this storm, the max winds extend waaaaaaaay beyond what I think most people are used to. It is quite possible you could be sitting on the TX/LA border very late Friday night and getting sustained CAT 2 winds and surge... until nearly mid Saturday! I actually HOPE this tightens up into a Cat 3/4 and brings the wind field in a bit, or a lot of people are going to be surprised and in serious trouble at landfall.

This is obviously not a forecast; don't rely on me, rely on trained weather professionals, yadda yadda yadda.

[otowntiger]

Ike can keep those concentric eyewalls too. The latest NHC track puts the eye over my house!
Less strengthening is good for everyone.

Keep your fingers crossed. I see some hopefull signs this morning. The winds have yet to respond to the lower pressure, the pressure has leveled off and possiblly risen some since last night and the satellite presentation hasn't improved since yesterday. It doesn't seem to be that much more organized. It seems to be having difficulty getting its eyewall sorted out. I don't see any weakening ocurring but I do see some hopeful signs. By the way, the NHC's latest track still seems to be about 40-50 miles from you and the northerly shifts may have stopped for now, and some slight southward shifts could come since the HWRF model is now south of the NHC track. Keep the faith!

[KWT]

FL wind of 102kts just been found in the NE quadrant, so the winds are slowly coming up still, looks like its on target to be a major at landfall still.

Going to be a very big beast at landfall, a cat-3 is going to cause huge damage, even more so given the massive region of 80kts winds at flight level, expect there to be a very similar damage zone evn 70-90 miles away from the center in that NE quadrant.

Windy, yep totally, the huge side is going to cause a huge amount of damage simply because of its size.

[dwg71]

The influx of air in the mote get rather large at times, what does this instability mean as far as intensity, any way it weakens because of it?

[HouTXmetro]

I think it's interesting that people get so focused on the category numbers. A small CAT 4 storm is a very big deal for whereever it landfalls. A Cat 2 storm with Cat 2 winds 110 miles away from center and TS winds nearly a few hundred miles away is HUGE storm that spanks an ENORMOUS swath of land with wind and surge, and for a much longer time. What makes a storm a Cat 2 or a Cat 4 is only the maximum sustained winds, which usually only extend out a small distance from the center or circulation. In this storm, the max winds extend waaaaaaaay beyond what I think most people are used to. It is quite possible you could be sitting on the TX/LA border very late Friday night and getting sustained CAT 2 winds and surge... until nearly mid Saturday! I actually HOPE this tightens up into a Cat 3/4 and brings the wind field in a bit, or a lot of people are going to be surprised and in serious trouble at landfall.

This is obviously not a forecast; don't rely on me, rely on trained weather professionals, yadda yadda yadda.

People closer to the eye do not want this to tighten up and strengthen.

[HurricaneRobert]

Yeah the eye is currently forecast over my house!

Is Ike still over the loop current? Did it pass it, and that's why the pressure has leveled off?

[Derek Ortt]

Although not likely , could Ike suprise us and Hit Cat 4 Status?

Extremely doubtful for a cat4 now. It's just not that type of system and once the outflow gets over land it will choke it off a bit anyway...If it can't get it's act together now, I don't see how it will do it later.

this can go from a 2 to a 4 very quickly once this eyewall struff finally ceases

[dwg71]

Although not likely , could Ike suprise us and Hit Cat 4 Status?

Extremely doubtful for a cat4 now. It's just not that type of system and once the outflow gets over land it will choke it off a bit anyway...If it can't get it's act together now, I don't see how it will do it later.

this can go from a 2 to a 4 very quickly once this eyewall struff finally ceases

They eye wall issues have been persistant, is getting together a certainty or could it not overcome it and get organized before landfall in about 40 hours or so.

[Windy]

I think it's interesting that people get so focused on the category numbers. A small CAT 4 storm is a very big deal for whereever it landfalls. A Cat 2 storm with Cat 2 winds 110 miles away from center and TS winds nearly a few hundred miles away is HUGE storm that spanks an ENORMOUS swath of land with wind and surge, and for a much longer time. What makes a storm a Cat 2 or a Cat 4 is only the maximum sustained winds, which usually only extend out a small distance from the center or circulation. In this storm, the max winds extend waaaaaaaay beyond what I think most people are used to. It is quite possible you could be sitting on the TX/LA border very late Friday night and getting sustained CAT 2 winds and surge... until nearly mid Saturday! I actually HOPE this tightens up into a Cat 3/4 and brings the wind field in a bit, or a lot of people are going to be surprised and in serious trouble at landfall.

This is obviously not a forecast; don't rely on me, rely on trained weather professionals, yadda yadda yadda.

People closer to the eye do not want this to tighten up and strengthen.

Oh, I understand, and I have sympathy for those who appear to be in the direct path of the storm. However, I think that those in the Houston area are expecting a massive hit and thus hunkering down or getting out. How many people 100 miles north east of Houston were expecting sustained 100mph winds for many hours, though? Loss of life comes when people don't prepare, and lack of preparation comes from either a lack of ability or a sense of complacency that they're not under the gun.

[shah8]

Ike is still strengthening in terms of windfield. That double eyewall makes for a huge gas tank.

[physicx07]

I think it's interesting that people get so focused on the category numbers. A small CAT 4 storm is a very big deal for whereever it landfalls. A Cat 2 storm with Cat 2 winds 110 miles away from center and TS winds nearly a few hundred miles away is HUGE storm that spanks an ENORMOUS swath of land with wind and surge, and for a much longer time. What makes a storm a Cat 2 or a Cat 4 is only the maximum sustained winds, which usually only extend out a small distance from the center or circulation. In this storm, the max winds extend waaaaaaaay beyond what I think most people are used to. It is quite possible you could be sitting on the TX/LA border very late Friday night and getting sustained CAT 2 winds and surge... until nearly mid Saturday! I actually HOPE this tightens up into a Cat 3/4 and brings the wind field in a bit, or a lot of people are going to be surprised and in serious trouble at landfall.

This is obviously not a forecast; don't rely on me, rely on trained weather professionals, yadda yadda yadda.

People closer to the eye do not want this to tighten up and strengthen.

But I think Windy is right. Arguably most of the damage done with a major hurricane is the surge. As far as surge goes, this hurricane may not provide the highest amplitude you would expect from a storm with pressure in the 940s, but the real estate it covers could very well more than make up for that. I think in that sense Ike is kind of a stealth storm because people just think cat 2 and aren't really aware how far its reaches are. It's even more dangerous with people unaware. Someone posted an image snapped in Dauphin Island, Alabama this morning with water totally covering the streets already, and not a cloud in the sky.

But yeah, within 50 miles of the center, it wouldn't be a good thing to see it tighten up. I hope for anyone from Corpus to Galveston/Houston that it doesn't.

[Steve Cosby]

Very interesting comment in the NW Arkansas/Eastern Oklahoma Forecast Discussion:

ALL EYES WILL BE ON IKE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS A COMPLETE
THROW OUT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO
ITS APPARENT POOR HANDLING OF IKE. THE WRF/NAM IS EQUALLY POOR YET
DIFFERENT ENTIRELY FROM THE GFS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
TPC/HPC/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/HWRF/GFDL WHICH ARE ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH IKE.

[sunny]

Oh, I understand, and I have sympathy for those who appear to be in the direct path of the storm. However, I think that those in the Houston area are expecting a massive hit and thus hunkering down or getting out. How many people 100 miles north east of Houston were expecting sustained 100mph winds for many hours, though? Loss of life comes when people don't prepare, and lack of preparation comes from either a lack of ability or a sense of complacency that they're not under the gun.

One would hope that people are paying attention and if they are then those you refer to SHOULD know the conditions they could be in for. If they have been alerted via their local officials and the media and do not heed the advice given, there's not much more anyone can do.

[jasons2k]

this can go from a 2 to a 4 very quickly once this eyewall struff finally ceases

They eye wall issues have been persistant, is getting together a certainty or could it not overcome it and get organized before landfall in about 40 hours or so.

Look at the recond Data. There are concentric eyewalls. Expect the ERC to complete (finally) and the winds will respond. Listen to your pro mets please, they know what they are talking about.

[mattpetre]

Recon thread showing 102 and 103 kt measurements... Is he a Cat 3 now?

[O Town]

3 hours ago




Now

[physicx07]

Recon thread showing 102 and 103 kt measurements... Is he a Cat 3 now?

Interestingly I didn't see any SFMR over 70 knots for the entire leg extending NE of the storm. So I'm not sure if the normal flight level reduction factor is valid right now for whatever reason. But it looks like Ike is trying to do something. I thought it was very interesting though that there were a huge number of 90+ knot FL winds now in the NE leg whereas a couple hours ago there would just be one or two readings just barely at 90.

[shah8]

Needs about 5 more knots of flight level before people can really hypothesize about cat 3 levelhood.

[poof121]

Does negative upper level divergence mean the high is weakening?