ATL: IKE Discussion

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

IKE down to 95 mph now.....

No Ike is still 100mph

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

[jinftl]

A local met gave an explanation which i thought was interesting but i would be curious to know if it sounds legit...

he said the low pressure reading and the wind speed don't match...that with the pressure ike has, you would expect a cat 3 or even 4. He explained that unlike storms where there is a very small core of strongest winds...like an andrew...the energy with ike is spread out more, which might be why the pressure and wind don't equate.

he also said that a storm with such a large windfield has to be able to focus energy really into a smaller inner core in order to become a stronger category. on the flip side, he said a large swath of cat 2 winds would do more $ damage than a small core of cat 4 winds...unless that core went over a highly densly populated area.

He said ramping up a big rig truck takes longer than a sports car....and ike is the truck. His last comment was, but if you had to choose, would you choose to get hit by a big rig truck or compact sports car?

I couldn't explain why Ike is a slow intensifier if I tried. The storm is a broad windfield, low windspeed for pressure hurricane. I call these "rollers" as opposed to tighter storms like Charley. Rollers tend to push more surge and have harder impact at lower intensity.

If you look at Ike you'll see that normal eye starting to show. This could be the final ramp up if the eye clears. Just in time for landfall.

NHC has been keen on track at this range so their landfall should be close. But this is a case where slightly right of track should be watched for because of the synoptic situation.

[ConvergenceZone]

IKE down to 95 mph now.....

No its not, still a category-2 at 100mph if you look at the advisory.

Strange. They actually had it at 95 mph, but when I went back and checked, it was back to 100 mph, so it must have been a mistake.

[HurricaneRobert]

IKE down to 95 mph now.....

eyewall open in recent recon

Oh OH..... could be consolidating eyewall and about to Take off?

It's past the loop current at least, so its chance to really take off have decreased.

[deltadog03]

Bout time they did a mandatory evac. Lucky for them Ike has appeard to have stalled again.

[bayoubebe]

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

I'm surprised that Morgan City is under a Hurricane Warning.
Comments/?

[tallywx]

11 a.m. NHC forecast track position for 8 a.m. Saturday morning has it inland, still with 115 mph winds, located exactly 38 miles SW of downtown Houston (29.5N, 95.9W). That would put the strongest winds of the entire storm into the Houston metro. area.

[tolakram]

[Txdivermom]

One other thing vis-a-vis Houston and hurricane force winds - Houston is a heavily forested metropolitan area that hasn't seen a lot of strong winds blow through there. Unlike Miami (sparsely forested), New Orleans (marshy coastal plain), and some of the other cities that have seen hurricanes recently, here you're going to have a hurricane barreling through and bringing down a lot of trees onto homes. I remember what Fran did to Raleigh in 1996, or Hugo did to Charlotte in 1989 - wind GUSTS were into the high cat 1 range, and you had some people without electricity for a month, and homes destroyed on every street because trees fell into them.

You might think cat 2 winds are not enough to bring down structures, but trees most certainly are.

I totally agree, Charley ripped a path of huge tree destruction all the way across the state to the east coast.
We were without power for 8-9 days and were 140 miles away from landfall in a much smaller storm.

And pretty much all of Houston north of I-10 looks like the pic that was posted. Heavily forested. Having a tree through my roof is my biggest concern. I'm on the NW side of town and they are saying we could have 12 hours of trop storm wind and another 8-9 of cat 1 wind. It will be very ugly and will take a very long time to get power restored. My folks live in Baton Rouge. The tree problem was huge. The only thing that makes it worse here is that Houston is just such a BIG city. We are very spread out. Even though we are prepared, I am not looking forward to this.

[jinftl]

After the surge danger, the real legacy of Ike may be the massive deforestation he causes....the tree canopy will be thinned and take years to grow back....but from what i have read, actually that is not bad a thing for a forest to thin out periodically....something of an evolutionary 'survival of the fittest' for the tree canopy. that is all well in good for the trees....but you throw in people and buildings around those trees...not a pretty image.

One other thing vis-a-vis Houston and hurricane force winds - Houston is a heavily forested metropolitan area that hasn't seen a lot of strong winds blow through there. Unlike Miami (sparsely forested), New Orleans (marshy coastal plain), and some of the other cities that have seen hurricanes recently, here you're going to have a hurricane barreling through and bringing down a lot of trees onto homes. I remember what Fran did to Raleigh in 1996, or Hugo did to Charlotte in 1989 - wind GUSTS were into the high cat 1 range, and you had some people without electricity for a month, and homes destroyed on every street because trees fell into them.

You might think cat 2 winds are not enough to bring down structures, but trees most certainly are.

I totally agree, Charley ripped a path of huge tree destruction all the way across the state to the east coast.
We were without power for 8-9 days and were 140 miles away from landfall in a much smaller storm.

And pretty much all of Houston north of I-10 looks like the pic that was posted. Heavily forested. Having a tree through my roof is my biggest concern. I'm on the NW side of town and they are saying we could have 12 hours of trop storm wind and another 8-9 of cat 1 wind. It will be very ugly and will take a very long time to get power restored. My folks live in Baton Rouge. The tree problem was huge. The only thing that makes it worse here is that Houston is just such a BIG city. We are very spread out. Even though we are prepared, I am not looking forward to this.

[Steve Cosby]

Ike is forecasted now to have a huge impact on the oil rigs and processing capabilities. That is nearly the worst case scenario for those. Look for a huge rise in gas prices very quickly that will persist over the next few months. This will probably have a bigger overall $$ impact than Katrina in my opinion.

Doubtful, the price spike is usually shortlived. There have been endless storms rolling thru the Gulf that were supposed to have huge impacts on gas prices and did not. If a bunch of refineries do get wiped out, there will be some impact, but in most cases the threat is overstated, FYI, the price of oil is DOWN again today,

Story this morning said that speculators were, in fact, to blame for run up in prices. That's still filtering out so maybe effect will be dampened.

[rtd2]

Bout time they did a mandatory evac. Lucky for them Ike has appeard to have stalled again.

was looking at that too! why the slow down?....thanks

[weunice]

And pretty much all of Houston north of I-10 looks like the pic that was posted. Heavily forested. Having a tree through my roof is my biggest concern. I'm on the NW side of town and they are saying we could have 12 hours of trop storm wind and another 8-9 of cat 1 wind. It will be very ugly and will take a very long time to get power restored. My folks live in Baton Rouge. The tree problem was huge. The only thing that makes it worse here is that Houston is just such a BIG city. We are very spread out. Even though we are prepared, I am not looking forward to this.

Just went through Gustav and I do not envy anyone in the path of this storm. Keep in mind that Baton Rouge may have had sustained winds at hurricane force in the southern part of the parish but the airport (which admittedly is pretty far north of most of town) officially recorded sustained winds in the 50-60 range with a couple of gusts around 90 mph. If Houston is talking about sustained winds higher than that over the time frame you are talking, it will be worse than what Gustav brought to BR and over a much much larger population.

[JenBayles]

Cy-Fair ISD IS having school tomorrow. What idiots!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Ike is forecasted now to have a huge impact on the oil rigs and processing capabilities. That is nearly the worst case scenario for those. Look for a huge rise in gas prices very quickly that will persist over the next few months. This will probably have a bigger overall $$ impact than Katrina in my opinion.

Despite that - the price of oil is currently falling. Futures forecast indicate a continuation of this, and thats taking Ike into account.

Oil down over a buck so far today, but the gas price is spiking with the expected demand and reduction in processing. I dunno about a long term increase. But I am not a financial expert.

Back to Ike.

[amanda]

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

I'm surprised that Morgan City is under a Hurricane Warning.
Comments/?

maybe they are erring on the side of caution in case ike follows the most northern part of the cone track. and considering that the wind field is so broad...

just a guess.

[rtd2]

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

I'm surprised that Morgan City is under a Hurricane Warning.
Comments/?

that is WELL outside the 3day track but I think its in order due to the size of the storm

[jinftl]

we are so ready...and savvy... for ike to blow up even more that the reaction to the info that the winds went down....which was not viewed as a good thing.

IKE down to 95 mph now.....

eyewall open in recent recon

Oh OH..... could be consolidating eyewall and about to Take off?

[tolakram]

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_m ... =Tide+Data

Galveston already running above normal.



edit: changed from live link to copy of pic

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. The latest NHC forecast calls for IKE to still be a tropical storm all the way inland to near eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. That would be a very rare event indeed!