ATL: IKE Discussion

[dwg71]

That is not an eye if it were, Ike would be moving SW and he's not.

Look at the link I've put up, its not moving SW whats hppening is the eye is trying to open up, actual motion looking at the IR rapidfire link is WNW.

That is where the center is though its perfectly obvious, whether or not it will beocme an eye is another matter?

We will let it play out.. That spot is well NNW of last NHC forecst point.

[bob rulz]

Ike is in a cool eddy right now so I don't see much - if any - strengthening until this evening.

"Cool" in the Gulf of Mexico is still like taking a bath.

This is a very unpredictable storm people. For all we know it could stay how it is until landfall or suddenly intensify into a cat 4 monster without warning.

[pablolopez26]

Governor Perry was just on Channel 13 news about 15 minutes ago and he was shwoing people slides of what the storm surge can do to Galveston.

He also said that if a theoretical Category 5 hurricane were to hit Galveston directly and cause storm surge on the ship channel, 1.5 million people would die. If people did not heed evacuation warnings.

Make no mistake, this storm will be bad, its going to be up to how well you prepared. The governor needs to open the Contra Flow lanes now.

Whats scary is that there are still people who need to get back into Galveston to get family and belongings. How will they get in if Contra Flow begins?

[KWT]

PTrackerLA, indeed thats the biggest threat seemingly with Ike, the huge storm surge thats going to come up across a big portion of W.Gulf of Mexico.

Also given the size of the hurricane winds, I suspect we will get some very bbad damage overall, I'm fairly worried this will be a top 10 most damaging storm ever...

[Ptarmigan]

If I was given a choice between a small Category 5 and monsterous Category 2 hurricane, I rather be hit by a small Category 5 hurricane. Well, neither of them are desirable. I am actually more worried about flooding than the winds from Ike.

[Steve]

>>Looking at numerous sat loops I 'd say dry slot that is staying on western edge of eye wall(strange) but if you look closely at Visible loop( Hi Res)you can see clouds moving south on the eastern edge of dry slot.

Agreed now. It rotated in and was probably a transient feature that got real close to the actual center of the storm as convection was curving around its east. Was something to watch for a few frames though. That's what we're here for.

Steve

[clfenwi]

Is Hurricane Ike the lowest pressure that is not a major hurricane since it has a central pressure of 944 mb and 100 mph winds?

Gloria of 1985 had 944 mb and 80 kt (and slightly later had 944/85 like Ike does now)

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Wilma before the plunge was 945/95

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Only other comparable situation I could find was Gilbert coming off the Yucatan, 949/90, 950/85, but went on to be 25 knots stronger with only a slight drop in pressure .

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[KWT]

dwg71, its abut where the center is but it doesn't seem to be an eye feature The other thing to note is the inner eyewall is nearly gone:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

[CrazyC83]

At least in the NW quad, the inner eyewall is gone.

[pablolopez26]

That dry air is really doing a number on Ike.

Dry Air is our best friend right now.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sec ... id=6102015 LIVE streeming news from the houston /galveston area. NEws conference going on at the moment.

[cheekygeek]

That is not an eye if it were, Ike would be moving SW and he's not.

That is incorrect. If you watch most recent loop of MIMIC imagery. (Long download time, requires Java). Watch the coastlines starting at 11:15 today. From that point on - until the last image (14:30, as I write this) the image center shifted almost exactly 1/2 degree west and 1/2 degree south. That is a pretty significant "wobble" that results in a nearly straight SW vector over that time period.

[CrazyC83]

Is Hurricane Ike the lowest pressure that is not a major hurricane since it has a central pressure of 944 mb and 100 mph winds?

Gloria of 1985 had 944 mb and 80 kt (and slightly later had 944/85 like Ike does now)

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Wilma before the plunge was 945/95

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Only other comparable situation I could find was Gilbert coming off the Yucatan, 949/90, 950/85, but went on to be 25 knots stronger with only a slight drop in pressure .

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

That 945/95 from Wilma was a mere guess before the jaw dropper came in so it was most likely wrong - it was 954/85 then tumbled to 901/130 at next report (so it was likely about 925/115 at that advisory). Gloria was likely 942/90 at NC landfall. Also Katrina was as low as 940 during the ERC with a generous 100 kt (not supported by any Recon).

[Brent]

dwg71, its abut where the center is but it doesn't seem to be an eye feature The other thing to note is the inner eyewall is nearly gone:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

Agreed. From the recon it appears the storm is more "normal" right now. Pressure is up a little though.

[CrazyC83]

dwg71, its abut where the center is but it doesn't seem to be an eye feature The other thing to note is the inner eyewall is nearly gone:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

Agreed. From the recon it appears the storm is more "normal" right now. Pressure is up a little though.

This reminds me of Katrina during the major ERC on August 27, 2005.

[tolakram]

That is not an eye if it were, Ike would be moving SW and he's not.

That is incorrect. If you watch most recent loop of MIMIC imagery. (Long download time, requires Java). Watch the coastlines starting at 11:15 today. From that point on - until the last image (14:30, as I write this) the image center shifted almost exactly 1/2 degree west and 1/2 degree south. That is a pretty significant "wobble" that results in a nearly straight SW vector over that time period.

You can't use mimic to judge direction. Because Ike doesn't have a distinct circulation center the MIMIC imagery is drifting around trying to locate one. What you are seeing on the last few frames is a center relocate because it overran on the previous frames.

[otowntiger]

WV loop from ADD, updates every 15 minutes. Does appear to be an eye trying to develop.

Looks like an eye to me as well. It's in the right spot.

To me that looks like a dry spot that is about to get spun around the broader center. This will be a significant and damaging storm no doubt simply due to his size and storm surge potential, but I will really be surprised if he gets past cat 2. Still pretty dangerous nonetheless.

[RL3AO]

It certainly looks like that outer core is taking over. Could get some quick intensification in the next 24 to 36 hours.

[jinftl]

Not the eyewall of a cat 5...remember homsetead pics after andrew....winds gusted over 200mph quite possibly....a strong tornado level

People here who were in South Dade..so they got the 'real' andrew said wilma was a piece of cake (when over florida)....the difference is between disastrous and nuisance

If I was given a choice between a small Category 5 and monsterous Category 2 hurricane, I rather be hit by a small Category 5 hurricane. Well, neither of them are desirable. I am actually more worried about flooding than the winds from Ike.

[lys3rg0]

Local television is showing massive traffic backups trying to exit Galveston. The inbound lanes are still inbound and there are people driving into Galveston. I don't know what they're thinking, because I don't think there is enough time to get back out. They need to open the contraflow lanes right now.

Anyone got that Galveston exit traffic camera link bookmarked? I seem to have lost it... it was posted around page 400 some hours ago...