ATL: IKE Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, so now I'm really confused...the winds may be increasing but the pressure has been rising?? Someone please help me with this before I go crazy....

[Brent]

Okay, so now I'm really confused...the winds may be increasing but the pressure has been rising?? Someone please help me with this before I go crazy....

Too late. I'm already there.

[tolakram]

[Derek Ortt]

you dont use the surface dropsonde winds... you use 85% of the MBL wind

[bob rulz]

Okay, so now I'm really confused...the winds may be increasing but the pressure has been rising?? Someone please help me with this before I go crazy....

The wind speeds were already WAY lower than was to be expected with that pressure.

[jinftl]

Now we may be able to see if a stronger core reduces the windfield size any...concentrating it

alot of majors have had huge windfields but i wonder if the major status was generally achieved first, and then the windfield expanded or if the reverse was more common (large windfield leads to later major)

Dropsonde supports an intensity increase to 90 kt.

Yep found 89kts, so indeed the winds should be upped to 90kts, looks like Ike is ever so slowly strengthening right now but if the inner issues are getting sorted out then this will strengthen faster.

[tolakram]

Okay, so now I'm really confused...the winds may be increasing but the pressure has been rising?? Someone please help me with this before I go crazy....

Too late. I'm already there.

Makes sense, in my opinion. The pressure already supported a much stronger wind speed, so a drop in pressure does not mean it's going to get weaker, but perhaps not as strong as would have been possible had the ERC completed yesterday.

[rtd2]

Okay, so now I'm really confused...the winds may be increasing but the pressure has been rising?? Someone please help me with this before I go crazy....

2 ways to look at it. could be ready to fall again fast or it may continue to rise and winds drop..pressure is close to being inline with winds now

[Aristotle]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

Yep this confirms there:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

What bad timing, its already got the huge surge and for it to ramp up now would give it little time for any structual changes to wekaen it...

wow that is quite possibly the best graphic I've ever seen with regard to EWRC.

No i notice the whole northern wall is now open. Will that get replace. What happens from hear on out?

[RL3AO]

you dont use the surface dropsonde winds... you use 85% of the MBL wind

Thats good to know.

[ConvergenceZone]

doesn't the pressure rising signal that it's going to start weakening again as far as the winds go?? I mean it's come up quite a bit....

[jinftl]

Ike is stirring up the Gulf so much that water levels on Lake Borgne east of New Orleans are running 2-3' above normal astronomical tides and the winds there are light!

[KWT]

jinftl, we still aren't at all sure that the center is sorting itself out. The problem is recon is still suggesting the inner core is still there at 8 miles from the center.

[VeniceInlet]

I'd like to urge anyone in low lying areas to not underestimate the potential storm surge. Here in southwest Florida we STILL have a surge here at about 4-5 feet over normal, and that's clear on the other side of the Gulf. Please be safe and get away from the rising water.

[Aristotle]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

Yep this confirms there:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

What bad timing, its already got the huge surge and for it to ramp up now would give it little time for any structual changes to wekaen it...

As soon as that inner eye wall colapses you can see the reds start to BOOM! Incredible!

[KWT]

doesn't the pressure rising signal that it's going to start weakening again as far as the winds go?? I mean it's come up quite a bit....

Ike hard a pressure more like a 130mph cat-3. The fact the pressure has come up a little is probably partly a fuction of the weak NW eyewall, but the other thing to remember is this is a 85kts hurricane, the fact is even if the pressure does increase, its still very low compared to what you'd expect.

[tolakram]

Tides running above normal.

Freeport TX



South of New Orleans

Port Fourchon, LA


Dauphin Island now 3 feet above normal (expected)

[rtd2]

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS

is this still ongoing?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... v_loop.php

[crazycajuncane]

A very good breeze here in New Iberia right now.

They are worried about storm surge here in Southern Louisiana.

The water is piling up at the coast similar to Hurricane Rita.

[KWT]

Yep tolakram and the tides will only be increasing in Texas as Ike gets closer and closer to the region, how high it will go, we shall see...