ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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- PTrackerLA
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- TreasureIslandFLGal
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Re:
dwg71 wrote:HWRF and GFDL blended would split matagorda bay.
Ike has picked up forward speed and 3 hour heading based on VDMs is about 275.
If it can keep heading for a few more hours, HWRF and GFDL would be more accurate around matagorda bay.
DWG, is this the direction that NHC has progged? I think you have to try to stay away from VDM's in the short term, especially with an awkward eye formation, because they can represent very inaccurate directions. i.e. if a closer to southern eye reading is noted and a closer to the north part of the eye is read the next time, rather than middle to middle, the track direction would appear to be much more northerly than it really is. I think DeltaDog posted a great post a few days back of a graphic to represent that potential flaw in using these. If you had maybe 3 or more readings to connect, then a better directional heading could be established, as well as forward speed.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
GFS shows direct Galveston hit now.
More like right on the NHC track right near Freeport. Track is solidifying.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Looks a little east of the current nhc track.
One thing to note is that even though the SE US is doing special 6 hourly balloon releases due to Ike, the 12z and 00z models should have just a tad more weight in their accuracies because they are inputed with the upper air data from the upper low.
One thing to note is that even though the SE US is doing special 6 hourly balloon releases due to Ike, the 12z and 00z models should have just a tad more weight in their accuracies because they are inputed with the upper air data from the upper low.
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- JessRomero
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
I think it is going to shift east little by little with each models run. I just hope i don't hit directly here. Boy that would be bad!! But I am leaving town with everything just to better to be to safe than sorry.
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Re: Re:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:dwg71 wrote:HWRF and GFDL blended would split matagorda bay.
Ike has picked up forward speed and 3 hour heading based on VDMs is about 275.
If it can keep heading for a few more hours, HWRF and GFDL would be more accurate around matagorda bay.
DWG, is this the direction that NHC has progged? I think you have to try to stay away from VDM's in the short term, especially with an awkward eye formation, because they can represent very inaccurate directions. i.e. if a closer to southern eye reading is noted and a closer to the north part of the eye is read the next time, rather than middle to middle, the track direction would appear to be much more northerly than it really is. I think DeltaDog posted a great post a few days back of a graphic to represent that potential flaw in using these. If you had maybe 3 or more readings to connect, then a better directional heading could be established, as well as forward speed.
went back and pegged three together spanning 5 1/2 hours.
11 minutes north and 41 west about 280 or so.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
12Z GFDL - couldn't be a worst path then this.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008091112-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008091112-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
JessRomero wrote:I think it is going to shift east little by little with each models run. I just hope i don't hit directly here. Boy that would be bad!! But I am leaving town with everything just to better to be to safe than sorry.
There aren't many more model runs left before he's inland.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Can we expect another shift to the right in the next advisory?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
I could imagine a slight shift to the right...given the current movement is slightly more north than anticipated
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
I think at this point in my totally non-professional opinion, we should watch one more model run and by that model run we should see a consensus of where Ike is going to hit.
From that point forward, just keep watching him on visible satellite imagery and radar as he approaches close to the coast. Some long range radars will be sure to pick up his every move, wobble, and position.
Good luck to all of us!
From that point forward, just keep watching him on visible satellite imagery and radar as he approaches close to the coast. Some long range radars will be sure to pick up his every move, wobble, and position.
Good luck to all of us!
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- southerngale
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