ATL: IKE Discussion

[ColdFusion]

Any one have the link handy to the current steering currents?

[Sabanic]

[quote="tolakram"]

tola based on that graphic and maintaining the same direction Ike would almost make landfall on the TX/LA order right?

[RL3AO]

Any one have the link handy to the current steering currents?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

[tolakram]

tola based on that graphic and maintaining the same direction Ike would almost make landfall on the TX/LA order right?

The 2PM caught a NW jog, I don't think it's a good representation of the overall direction. Expect to see some due west motion today as it stair steps up. Not sure about this, but generally that's what I expect to see.

[pablolopez26]

Looks like Ike is really trying to fight the dry air to his western quadrant. Apparently his center showing signs of strengthening.

[KatDaddy]

Wife and daughter on I-45 N of the Woodlands. Traffic moving at 20-40mph. They are headed to Dallas and I am staying. Currently resting from putting up storm panels. This is very tiring and somewhat stressful. Lets just have the storm and get on with life. This has been a very long week so far.

[jinftl]

The line of reasoning may be so riddled with errors and misconceptions to warrant at the very least a smack to the head....but i wonder if the very large windfield has resulted in the energy of the system becoming diffuse and spread out. This in turn has made a real ramp up in max wind difficult since energy needs to be drawn into a strong center core for that. so if the pressure rises some...and the winds are always some function of the pressure gradient between high and low, the wind field may contract and the energy moved towards the center core....therefore a stronger ike to follow.

like i said...all theoretical from someone with no real qualifications to theorize.

[Jessie]

If Ike takes the Northern or Eastern most track in the cone into Louisiana how would the storm surge affect New Orleans and their Levies?

[apocalypt-flyer]

Centre should be at 26N and 89W, right?

[Cape Verde]

Contraflowing the lanes right now coming out of Galveston would be a bad idea. People are leaving work early to get to their homes for final prep and remember it is not just Galveston where people are headed to for preparations. They are going to Friendswood, Clear Lake, Webster, etc. To contraflow now would be to divert a massive amount of traffic to local roads and would cause a great deal of problems. Contraflow will now be best to do around 6 PM I think.

I was thinking only out of Galveston across the causeway at this point. Unless a lot of people had already left, there's precious little time to evacuate the entire island. The surge should put the entire island underwater. It won't be a place to ride the storm out.

Anyone driving into Galveston this afternoon is gambling that everyone else in line to get out WILL get out.

[CoCo2]

I'm thinking the same thing David. We can't board our windows: 3 bays, and they're all recessed in brick. No wood frames to screw into for clips to grip. I figure our front rooms are hosed.

Jen, I saw a neighbor in Louisiana who had recessed windows take plywood and cut it the size of the window, push it tightly into the opening. Then take a 2x4 and cut the ends on an angle so it fits diagonally over the window/plywood. Sort of like a cross beam over the plywood/window opening. You have to cut the 2x4 so it fits really tight. The neighbor did this for Andrew, Katrina, Rita and Gustav and the boards didn't move.

Good luck to you.

[pablolopez26]

Centre should be at 26N and 89W, right?

Thats about right, i think we are going to see Ike beging to strengthen now.

[Wthrman13]

The line of reasoning may be so riddled with errors and misconceptions to warrant at the very least a smack to the head....but i wonder if the very large windfield has resulted in the energy of the system becoming diffuse and spread out. This in turn has made a real ramp up in max wind difficult since energy needs to be drawn into a strong center core for that. so if the pressure rises some...and the winds are always some function of the pressure gradient between high and low, the wind field may contract and the energy moved towards the center core....therefore a stronger ike to follow.

like i said...all theoretical from someone with no real qualifications to theorize.

No, your line of reasoning is sound. That's indeed what's going on with Ike right now. Though it has a fairly low central pressure, the pressure gradient is fairly weak near the core. In order for the winds to increase, Ike would have to "close ranks" and contract the outer wind maximum into a new, smaller eyewall. It looks from the recent recon pass that the old, inner eyewall has weakened considerably. It remains to be seen if the hurricane has enough time to complete the ERC before landfall. It's dealing with some shear and dry air right now, so we'll see.

EDIT: However, not to be nitpicky, but the central pressure would have to drop in order for the system to wind up as you are saying. Raising the central pressure would only further weaken the pressure gradient and, consequently, the winds.

[SunnyThoughts]

Switched my weatherbug over to Houston, just to see what the hurricane statement says.

Life threatening inundation likely!

All neighborhoods, and possibly entire coastal communities...will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped...some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage....with massive destruction of homes...Including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair. Chilling to say the least.

[KWT]

The thing to noteis that whilst Ike has wobbled NW does not mean a westward correction won't come later and put it back on track again, so we shall have to see, that is not the representative motion though that does have a huge impact on the Galveston region.

[Steve]

Never posted a video before, but if I can figure this out, I just went outside to the corner of Gravier and Camp Streets in New Orleans and shot a video from my blackjack2 facing Harrah's Casino/Mississippi River (assuming SE but might be S or SW the way this funky city is laid out). Anyway, wind was gusting pretty good for a 90+/- degree day IMHO.

Steve

See if it worked:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYj1HfUpcRU

[jaxtider]

The line of reasoning may be so riddled with errors and misconceptions to warrant at the very least a smack to the head....but i wonder if the very large windfield has resulted in the energy of the system becoming diffuse and spread out. This in turn has made a real ramp up in max wind difficult since energy needs to be drawn into a strong center core for that. so if the pressure rises some...and the winds are always some function of the pressure gradient between high and low, the wind field may contract and the energy moved towards the center core....therefore a stronger ike to follow.

like i said...all theoretical from someone with no real qualifications to theorize.

No, your line of reasoning is sound. That's indeed what's going on with Ike right now. Though it has a fairly low central pressure, the pressure gradient is fairly weak near the core. In order for the winds to increase, Ike would have to "close ranks" and contract the outer wind maximum into a new, smaller eyewall. It looks from the recent recon pass that the old, inner eyewall has weakened considerably. It remains to be seen if the hurricane has enough time to complete the ERC before landfall. It's dealing with some shear and dry air right now, so we'll see.

What is the wind shear speed at the moment?

[Wthrman13]

The line of reasoning may be so riddled with errors and misconceptions to warrant at the very least a smack to the head....but i wonder if the very large windfield has resulted in the energy of the system becoming diffuse and spread out. This in turn has made a real ramp up in max wind difficult since energy needs to be drawn into a strong center core for that. so if the pressure rises some...and the winds are always some function of the pressure gradient between high and low, the wind field may contract and the energy moved towards the center core....therefore a stronger ike to follow.

like i said...all theoretical from someone with no real qualifications to theorize.

No, your line of reasoning is sound. That's indeed what's going on with Ike right now. Though it has a fairly low central pressure, the pressure gradient is fairly weak near the core. In order for the winds to increase, Ike would have to "close ranks" and contract the outer wind maximum into a new, smaller eyewall. It looks from the recent recon pass that the old, inner eyewall has weakened considerably. It remains to be seen if the hurricane has enough time to complete the ERC before landfall. It's dealing with some shear and dry air right now, so we'll see.

What is the wind shear speed at the moment?

CIMSS analysis suggests about 10 kts of deep-layer shear over the center right now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[jinftl]

Cool...i'll take nitpicking to smack on the head anyday... with the pressure so low would it take much for the winds to jump to what you would typically expect with that pressure?

The line of reasoning may be so riddled with errors and misconceptions to warrant at the very least a smack to the head....but i wonder if the very large windfield has resulted in the energy of the system becoming diffuse and spread out. This in turn has made a real ramp up in max wind difficult since energy needs to be drawn into a strong center core for that. so if the pressure rises some...and the winds are always some function of the pressure gradient between high and low, the wind field may contract and the energy moved towards the center core....therefore a stronger ike to follow.

like i said...all theoretical from someone with no real qualifications to theorize.

No, your line of reasoning is sound. That's indeed what's going on with Ike right now. Though it has a fairly low central pressure, the pressure gradient is fairly weak near the core. In order for the winds to increase, Ike would have to "close ranks" and contract the outer wind maximum into a new, smaller eyewall. It looks from the recent recon pass that the old, inner eyewall has weakened considerably. It remains to be seen if the hurricane has enough time to complete the ERC before landfall. It's dealing with some shear and dry air right now, so we'll see.

EDIT: However, not to be nitpicky, but the central pressure would have to drop in order for the system to wind up as you are saying. Raising the central pressure would only further weaken the pressure gradient and, consequently, the winds.

[micktooth]

Never posted a video before, but if I can figure this out, I just went outside to the corner of Gravier and Camp Streets in New Orleans and shot a video from my blackjack2 facing Harrah's Casino/Mississippi River (assuming SE but might be S or SW the way this funky city is laid out). Anyway, wind was gusting pretty good for a 90+/- degree day IMHO.

Steve

See if it worked:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYj1HfUpcRU

Worked well, my old neighborhood, River Ridge had a wind gust of 36mph