ATL: IKE Discussion

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bob rulz
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Re: Re:

#9301 Postby bob rulz » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:04 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:I'm confused. I thought that the double wind maximum was finally sorting itself out and that the outer eyewall was becoming dominant, but people are still saying that we have problems with a double eyewall.

Which is it really here?


Both are true.


Okay, I think I'm starting to understand better. It's in that precarious and aggravating transition phase to put it simply.

But I still don't understand why people are saying that this might not have time to strengthen before landfall...it seems to me there's plenty of time for the EWRC to finish before then.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9302 Postby thetruesms » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:04 pm

jinftl wrote:almost like the short-term pressure rise is a trigger...but ike has to take advantage of the chain of potential events that follow....and pressure must then actually fall...for him to get stronger
thetruesms wrote:While the pressure is rising, I wonder that if it only rises somewhat, that the new eyewall will be induced to contract quickly enough that we don't see the temporary decrease in wind speeds, and instead stays constant.

All this talk about replacement cycle dynamics reminds me of my capstone project :eek:
Pressure doesn't necessarily have to fall for wind speeds to increase - pressure gradient has to increase for wind speeds to increase. My thought is that it's possible that the central pressure is currently low enough that the eyewall will end up contracting quickly enough that the incerase in pressure gradient it brings will offset the rising central pressure. So instead of the winds decreasing as much as one would expect in this stage of the cycle, that they may decrease less, or even stay constant.
Last edited by thetruesms on Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Weatherfreak000

#9303 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:05 pm

I think it is good to note for residents of the Central Texas Coast that Ike is typically always to the right of the forecast.


I think that bodes well for them.
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Re:

#9304 Postby fasterdisaster » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:05 pm

bob rulz wrote:I'm confused. I thought that the double wind maximum was finally sorting itself out and that the outer eyewall was becoming dominant, but people are still saying that we have problems with a double eyewall.

Which is it really here?


Like someone already said it's both. Looking at microwave imagery you can already tell the little circle that was the inner eyewall is gone or almost gone. The outer eyewall however is not complete and is open on its northwest side. In my COMPLETELY UNOFFICIAL AND UNPROFESSIONAL opinion, I'd say it should (SHOULD) start strengthening in about 6 hours.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9305 Postby jinftl » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:05 pm

Any amount north can only add to the coastal flood threat already in place in LA and points east.

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
micktooth wrote:This happens every storm with the track. Let me guess:
People in LA and east "moving NW"
People in TX "moving WNW"


Maybe so, I agree. But being too far East to see this storm at this point...i'd like to think my opinion is unbiased at this point. The storm is without question moving NW.
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#9306 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:05 pm

Okay, the models seem to agree that my home on the west side of Houston will get the worst of the winds. Fortunately, I'm well out of the surge zone.

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9307 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:05 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
micktooth wrote:This happens every storm with the track. Let me guess:
People in LA and east "moving NW"
People in TX "moving WNW"


Maybe so, I agree. But being too far East to see this storm at this point...i'd like to think my opinion is unbiased at this point. The storm is without question moving NW.


I think they call it wobbles. Anyway there is nothing you or I or anyone else can do about it...so why worry? Ike will go where Ike wants to go. Let's just hope and pray that he doesn't ramp up before landfall....wherever that might be.
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Re:

#9308 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:06 pm

Cape Verde wrote:Okay, the models seem to agree that my home on the west side of Houston will get the worst of the winds. Fortunately, I'm well out of the surge zone.

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?


Take it off unless you really don't want cable for 2 months..
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#9309 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:06 pm

Agreed Mick. As you no doubt know, however, I am not one of those posters who sees things that affect me. I'm holding out the possibility that it's just a video error or that the track will flatten out. I just ran the ssd/noaa link by my boy who lost his house (and all his Yankees memorabilia) in Arabi in Katrina and received substantial roof and kitchen damage in Gustav and he was like, ****. What are we doing here with a storm that close? I couldn't answer the question. Like I said, it's very unlikely we'll see anything other than tropical storm-lite conditions (maybe I'll see more down the bayou tonight where it's gusting to 40mph currently), but outside of a bunch of food, water and petro at the house, we ain't got a whole lot else and no one is prepared to get out again within 20 hours. Glad it's not a likely scenario. However, if I were in Galveston or points slightly farther up the Texas Coast, I'd be a little jittery with the prospects of another couple of days over pretty warm waters and a massive surge predicted by pro mets.

:nya-ah-ah:

Steve
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9310 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:06 pm

micktooth wrote:This happens every storm with the track. Let me guess:
People in LA and east "moving NW"
People in TX "moving WNW"


per NHC:

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

It's not just us. However, I expect the track to even out WNW again.
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Re:

#9311 Postby jinftl » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:06 pm

Yep...i did in wilma....except the dish was gone at about 100mph. mayber sooner. if you get those conditions, it will be moot...no power


Cape Verde wrote:Okay, the models seem to agree that my home on the west side of Houston will get the worst of the winds. Fortunately, I'm well out of the surge zone.

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9312 Postby Wthrman13 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:07 pm

thetruesms wrote:
jinftl wrote:almost like the short-term pressure rise is a trigger...but ike has to take advantage of the chain of potential events that follow....and pressure must then actually fall...for him to get stronger
While the pressure is rising, I wonder that if it only rises somewhat, that the new eyewall will be induced to contract quickly enough that we don't see the temporary decrease in wind speeds, and instead stays constant.

All this talk about replacement cycle dynamics reminds me of my capstone project :eek:

Pressure doesn't necessarily have to fall for wind speeds to increase - pressure gradient has to increase for wind speeds to increase. My thought is that it's possible that the central pressure is currently low enough that the eyewall will end up contracting quickly enough that the incerase in pressure gradient it brings will offset the rising central pressure. So instead of the winds decreasing as much as one would expect in this stage of the cycle, that they may decrease less, or even stay constant.


Yes, that's technically true. I was referring to the case where the pressure gradient remained about the same but the central pressure rose. In order for the pressure gradient to increase, the outer eyewall would have to contract. If so, yes it's possible that the winds would increase even if the central pressure rose a bit.

EDIT: tried to fix the mangled quotes
Last edited by Wthrman13 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#9313 Postby artist » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:07 pm

Frank2 wrote:Wthrman13,

Of course with a wind field this large, if it did constrict then the wind speed would increase - it seems that's the issue with Ike since it covers such a large area, which in that case is a good thing since the wind isn't what it could be, though it does mean that more will experience some wind for a longer period of time....

Frances (2004) was similar - we had tropical storm force gusts for 18 hours - it seemed like it would never end...


but that also equates to greater surge. Parts of northern Florida as well as Alabama have already had flooding.
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#9314 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:07 pm

Yes I see more of a NW movement of late but he could jog back just as quick, trend is the friend or in some cases not so friendly for someone.
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Re:

#9315 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:08 pm

Cape Verde wrote:Okay, the models seem to agree that my home on the west side of Houston will get the worst of the winds. Fortunately, I'm well out of the surge zone.

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?


frisbee, take it down, i saw a few in the road after wilma, i took mine down and glad i did, too bad i didn't have power for 10 days after wilma so i could use the dish
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9316 Postby thetruesms » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:10 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:Yes, that's technically true. I was referring to the case where the pressure gradient remained about the same but the central pressure rose. In order for the pressure gradient to increase, the outer eyewall would have to contract. If so, yes it's possible that the winds would increase even if the central pressure rose a bit.
Good, I am remembering this right. I'll have to go tell Dr. Biggerstaff that I'm using what I learned from my capstone :lol:
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#9317 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:10 pm

I guess the big question on movement from here on out would be how quickly does the ridge erode and where is Ike when he decides to turn more northerly?
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Re: Re:

#9318 Postby jinftl » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:10 pm

If screened patios over pools are as prevelent in houston as in south fl...those will be gone too...the funny thing is alot of people didn't bother to replace them and actually like open air better....not counting bugs

jlauderdal wrote:
Cape Verde wrote:Okay, the models seem to agree that my home on the west side of Houston will get the worst of the winds. Fortunately, I'm well out of the surge zone.

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?


frisbee, take it down, i saw a few in the road after wilma, i took mine down and glad i did, too bad i didn't have power for 10 days after wilma so i could use the dish
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Re: Re:

#9319 Postby rtd2 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:11 pm

jinftl wrote:Yep...i did in wilma....except the dish was gone at about 100mph. mayber sooner. if you get those conditions, it will be moot...no power


Cape Verde wrote:Okay, the models seem to agree that my home on the west side of Houston will get the worst of the winds. Fortunately, I'm well out of the surge zone.

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?





during katrina I marked mine took it off the pole and in the house after the storm I put it back up. had TV and receiver(along with a/c fridge ,ect.) on generator until power was restored. local cable was out for months and people who didnt take there dish down was on a long waiting list for a replacement... Oh make sure you have a UPS for any electronics you hook up to a portable generator!
Last edited by rtd2 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#9320 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:13 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Yes I see more of a NW movement of late but he could jog back just as quick, trend is the friend or in some cases not so friendly for someone.


Yeah its quite possible this could trend back west a little who knows. The thing is wxman57 did say once that 75% of gulf of Mexico landfalling systems have ended up right of the forecasted landfall which would be very bad news for Galveston region.
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