ATL: IKE Discussion

[micktooth]

This happens every storm with the track. Let me guess:
People in LA and east "moving NW"
People in TX "moving WNW"

per NHC:

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

It's not just us. However, I expect the track to even out WNW again.

BTW, I agree it is moving more NW. I am just stating what usually happens when a storm is nearing landfall.
Disclaimer: I used to live in Louisiana!

[Sabanic]

This happens every storm with the track. Let me guess:
People in LA and east "moving NW"
People in TX "moving WNW"

per NHC:

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

It's not just us. However, I expect the track to even out WNW again.

BTW, I agree it is moving more NW. I am just stating what usually happens when a storm is nearing landfall.
Disclaimer: I used to live in Louisiana!

And having lived here in Mobile for 49 years in the last 15 years alone we have had a good number of storms aiming right at us in September and October only to have the turn eastward as close as 6 hours (Ivan) before landfall.

[Stormcenter]

Here you go wobble watchers. By the way, I'm prepared for the worst and hoping for the best here.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=9

[mvtrucking]

Any one have the link handy to the current steering currents?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

Which layer do you look at? Does it depend on what pressure the storm is? I see the TC MSLP 950-969, lets say the pressure
was 954 is that the layer I would look at for steering? Thanks for the help.

[RL3AO]

Any one have the link handy to the current steering currents?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

Which layer do you look at? Does it depend on what pressure the storm is? I see the TC MSLP 950-969, lets say the pressure
was 954 is that the layer I would look at for steering? Thanks for the help.

You would be correct.

[rtd2]

Any one have the link handy to the current steering currents?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

Which layer do you look at? Does it depend on what pressure the storm is? I see the TC MSLP 950-969, lets say the pressure
was 954 is that the layer I would look at for steering? Thanks for the help.

yes you look at thoses ranges.....latest pressure is 951 per recon....not that it matters here

[Nexus]

According to NHC track and Google Earth last recon pass, the center is 13 miles north of track - not exactly very much, I'm leaning towards just a wobble.

lowest extrap pressure 951.3, almost exactly the same as the 951.5 from the previous pass.

[KWT]

What strikes me is how high the tide is starting to get already in Texas, its pretty impressive given Ike is still over 36hrs away from landfall

[HurricaneRobert]

Yes I see more of a NW movement of late but he could jog back just as quick, trend is the friend or in some cases not so friendly for someone.

Yeah its quite possible this could trend back west a little who knows. The thing is wxman57 did say once that 75% of gulf of Mexico landfalling systems have ended up right of the forecasted landfall which would be very bad news for Galveston region.

There's nothing worse for the Galveston region than and landfall near Palacios or Freeport. A right turn would be much better.

[KWT]

Also a 26 ft wave at Buoy 42040 south of Dauphin Island, AL. That's a huge wave for as far away as that is from Ike.

Yep that doesn't surprise me there is a very big area with waves above 26 feet, pretty much extends as far as Ike's TS winds go I believe lookin at the map I saw earlier and makes Gustav's wave height look pretty puny!

[ConvergenceZone]

What strikes me is how high the tide is starting to get already in Texas, its pretty impressive given Ike is still over 36hrs away from landfall

Yep, hitting Texas as a cat 2 will still cause some significant damage due to storm surge. As the other Met just mentioned, it may run out of time to strengthen further and get organized, but even so, a cat 2 of this size will still do much damage...

[Sabanic]

Huge storm. 193 to Dauphin Island is closed. All of the water here around Dog River where I am now is extremely high. Part of the Causeway at the North end of Mobile Bay is under water. Unreal!

[artist]

Okay, the models seem to agree that my home on the west side of Houston will get the worst of the winds. Fortunately, I'm well out of the surge zone.

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?

we forgot to take it off during one storm and it became misaligned and loose. You might want to take it down.

[rtd2]

Okay, the models seem to agree that my home on the west side of Houston will get the worst of the winds. Fortunately, I'm well out of the surge zone.

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?

we forgot to take it off during one storm and it became misaligned and loose. You might want to take it down.

yep like I said MARK it take it down and you'll be good to go

[KWT]

Yep, hitting Texas as a cat 2 will still cause some significant damage due to storm surge. As the other Met just mentioned, it may run out of time to strengthen further and get organized, but even so, a cat 2 of this size will still do much damage...

Even this holds at 100mph, winds close to that will still do some decent damage as you say and because of the huge size many regions along Texas and quite possibly W.LA will be getting damage. The skyscrapers of Houston no doubt will take a battering, esp if the path takes Ike right on through there.

Also got to admit it'll be interesting to see if the Galveston seawalls don't get overtopped, I suspect theres a fair chance they will to some extent, its just will be a surge of just the waves lapping over the top?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I never thought in a million years after early this morning it was blowing up and the outter eye was contrating to see a system that is hardly a cat2 still. I'm amazed with this storm.

[Cape Verde]

during katrina I marked mine took it off the pole and in the house after the storm I put it back up. had TV and receiver(along with a/c fridge ,ect.) on generator until power was restored. local cable was out for months and people who didnt take there dish down was on a long waiting list for a replacement... Oh make sure you have a UPS for any electronics you hook up to a portable generator!

I'll just count on losing it, then. It's mounted about 30 feet up on a very steep roof and when I fall it will be onto concrete. If I were young, maybe, but I'm not, and I don't want to die before the storm hits.

It's going to make for a nice leaking roof, though.

I guess this rules out watching the Ohio State/USC game that evening. Dang.

Well, I was being stupidly optimistic anyway. I'll surely have bigger problems to deal with Saturday evening.

[KWT]

I never thought in a million years after early this morning it was blowing up and the outter eye was contrating to see a system that is hardly a cat2 still. I'm amazed with this storm.

Well thats what happens when you can't stort out the inner core, got to admit the huge sizeof Ike's wind field is very impressive.

[Sanibel]

GFDL of 24 hours ago had this going right where it seems to be going. I think we all know where that is.

Better hope that WNW half stays dry.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, hitting Texas as a cat 2 will still cause some significant damage due to storm surge. As the other Met just mentioned, it may run out of time to strengthen further and get organized, but even so, a cat 2 of this size will still do much damage...

Even this holds at 100mph, winds close to that will still do some decent damage as you say and because of the huge size many regions along Texas and quite possibly W.LA will be getting damage. The skyscrapers of Houston no doubt will take a battering, esp if the path takes Ike right on through there.

Also got to admit it'll be interesting to see if the Galveston seawalls don't get overtopped, I suspect theres a fair chance they will to some extent, its just will be a surge of just the waves lapping over the top?

Yep. I don't think it will weaken either in spite of some of the outflow that will be over land soon and and cooler waters close to the coast. Right now I see a 100 mph hurricane slamming into Texas.... If it does weaken from here on out, it may only be by 5 or 10 mph.....