ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Ed, you truely are desperate to get it into La aren't ya

Who knows, it does seem to be a tad north of where was forecasted thanks to a NW jog earlier so that may well help out Galveston IF the lift out occurs earlier, but right now the *offical* track doesn't look good at all...

[Sanibel]

Outer band on long range radar. If it hooks it will hook into these radars:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Stormcenter]

Wobble watch update.
He's back to wnw.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=9

[Derek Ortt]

actually, the pressure is about 950mb, as there was a 20KT surface wind with the 952mb. The pressure has started to fall again

[dwg71]

11am forecast had it to be at 25.9 & 90.0 at 7pm tonight.

lastest recon fix 25.9 and 89.2 a full 8 tenths east of where they had it to be.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

actually, the pressure is about 950mb, as there was a 20KT surface wind with the 952mb. The pressure has started to fall again

How big do you think that the tropical storm force winds will grow at its largest?

Also how fast do you feel it will strengthen.

Thanks.

[KWT]

dwg71, no doubts its north of where progged, not sure thats really much news given the huge wind field with Ike mind you!

Does seem like its starting to get a better presentation again, but we've seen that happen before and not really come to much.

[micktooth]

11am forecast had it to be at 25.9 & 90.0 at 7pm tonight.

lastest recon fix 25.9 and 89.2 a full 8 tenths east of where they had it to be.

I just posted a similar observation on the models thread. Most models had Ike a 26N 90W

[Frank2]

Don't forget that the pressures always lower about 1 or 2 mb at this time of the afternoon, so, it might just be diurnal in nature, and, not due to a strengthening mode...

Now, if it lowers 5 or 10 mb in a couple of hours, that's another issue...

[jinftl]

Probably see alot of these post-wilma south florida-type images if stays a Cat 2....i recall i have seen alicia images from houston...lots of broken windows downtown too

Yep, hitting Texas as a cat 2 will still cause some significant damage due to storm surge. As the other Met just mentioned, it may run out of time to strengthen further and get organized, but even so, a cat 2 of this size will still do much damage...

Even this holds at 100mph, winds close to that will still do some decent damage as you say and because of the huge size many regions along Texas and quite possibly W.LA will be getting damage. The skyscrapers of Houston no doubt will take a battering, esp if the path takes Ike right on through there.

Also got to admit it'll be interesting to see if the Galveston seawalls don't get overtopped, I suspect theres a fair chance they will to some extent, its just will be a surge of just the waves lapping over the top?

[Tireman4]

Ed, you truely are desperate to get it into La aren't ya

Who knows, it does seem to be a tad north of where was forecasted thanks to a NW jog earlier so that may well help out Galveston IF the lift out occurs earlier, but right now the *offical* track doesn't look good at all...

Ed,

This storm is so large, even if it did go to Lousiana, we (Houston area), will still feel the effects. This is a LARGE storm.

[Frank2]

Similar to Gustav, Ike has also had many growth spurts only to subside again, so, we'll see...

[Nexus]

Eye coming back in the visible

Showing up on IR as well:

[Frank2]

Still, that's one lopsided hurricane...

[fasterdisaster]

Eye coming back in the visible

Showing up on IR as well:

This could be a big deal actually.

[baitism]

Has recon said whether the outer eyewall has contracted, or is this new one thats trying to form just the same old inner one?

[Sanibel]

Notice the flat NNE edge. The continental High that brought Ike is the same one that brought continental dry air down on it as well.

[Frank2]

I wouldn't make too much of it - it might be going over a slightly warmer loop...

Yes, I see what you mean - there are many external factors with Ike, so, hopefully this will be the most we'll see of it...

The storm surge might be another issue, but, since the wind field is so spread out, that might actually help to lessen the surge since it won't be as concentrated in one area of highest winds...

[KWT]

I'm not paying too much attention to that eye like feature, we had one earlier in the afternoon and then it went again pretty quickly, if recon does find one solid eyewlal that will be far more interesting!

[dwg71]

dwg71, no doubts its north of where progged, not sure thats really much news given the huge wind field with Ike mind you!

Does seem like its starting to get a better presentation again, but we've seen that happen before and not really come to much.

its not a big windfield to the west of the storm compared to east, so a hit in orange texas versus Galveston is huge.