jinftl wrote:would a landfall to the east of galveston reduce the storm surge threat some for houston/galveston area?
Yes, depending upon how far east it slides. If it takes a Rita-like surprise turn, Galveston may be spared from the big surge (afterall, winds would be offshore, so the wind would actually work to REDUCE the level of the water, though the low pressure will keep it up). However, the current forecast looks to be a worst-case scenario for the Galveston area. If it makes landfall where it is forecast to make landfall, it will be catastrophic, particularly if the winds bump up to Cat 3. Remember how there was massive surge in MS and AL when Kartina came ashore, but you didn't really hear anything about the surge along the central LA coast? That's the importance of being on the right (MS/AL) or left side of the center (central/western LA coast). In this case, it will be extremely important to watch any wobbles in the last 6 hours prior to landfall, as even 20-30 miles shifts may have a massive impact on surge and flooding in and around Galveston. Ike's surge will affect a very large portion of the TX and LA coastline to the right of the path.
Gustav could have been catastrophic for New Orleans (Katrina-II) a few weeks ago, but it ended up passing just far enough to the southwest that the surge didn't overtop the levees (some waves did lap over the walls/levees, however, showing you how close the situation was to be another massive event). May we be so lucky so as to have Ike's surge miss the largest population centers (no offense to those in smaller towns that will be affected).
Recon suggests a temporary W-WNW motion between the last two center passes if I'm seeing them on Google Earth correctly.
