ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Good post WxGuy1, though we have to wait and see, we are getting to the point now however where wobbles do start to make a difference in terms of possible landfall sites and the risks involved with that particular landfall site.

Sadly I think the current NHC track is going to be pretty much bang on and that would be the worst case for Galveston and Houston, both would obviously getting hurricane force winds thanks to the huge size of Ike.

[KWT]

I can only imagine what horrific pics we are going to see Sunday and for many days after of all the damage that this storm will inflict...I sincerely hope and pray for no loss of life and that the casualties are limited to property and possessions...

Sadly we will probably see mile upon mile of severely damaged coastline when this all down in both Texas and also LA, because lets not forget the surge is still very high even a long long way out from the center.

[fasterdisaster]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

Holy ****

[jinftl]

The north track once on land is bad too for points well east of eye....that whole massive right half of storm is going to dump rain and wind on LA, MS, AR, AL for starters...the 275 mile wind field on the right is going to bring wind far inland even as he weakens

would a landfall to the east of galveston reduce the storm surge threat some for houston/galveston area?

Yes, depending upon how far east it slides. If it takes a Rita-like surprise turn, Galveston may be spared from the big surge (afterall, winds would be offshore, so the wind would actually work to REDUCE the level of the water, though the low pressure will keep it up). However, the current forecast looks to be a worst-case scenario for the Galveston area. If it makes landfall where it is forecast to make landfall, it will be catastrophic, particularly if the winds bump up to Cat 3. Remember how there was massive surge in MS and AL when Kartina came ashore, but you didn't really hear anything about the surge along the central LA coast? That's the importance of being on the right (MS/AL) or left side of the center (central/western LA coast). In this case, it will be extremely important to watch any wobbles in the last 6 hours prior to landfall, as even 20-30 miles shifts may have a massive impact on surge and flooding in and around Galveston. Ike's surge will affect a very large portion of the TX and LA coastline to the right of the path.

Gustav could have been catastrophic for New Orleans (Katrina-II) a few weeks ago, but it ended up passing just far enough to the southwest that the surge didn't overtop the levees (some waves did lap over the walls/levees, however, showing you how close the situation was to be another massive event). May we be so lucky so as to have Ike's surge miss the largest population centers (no offense to those in smaller towns that will be affected).

Recon suggests a temporary W-WNW motion between the last two center passes if I'm seeing them on Google Earth correctly.

[jacindc]

Ok, let me remind everyone again that I'm an amateur. But that being said, it sure looks to me on the water vapor loops that the center of the storm is much further north?

Don't use water vapor loops for judging the storm itself. Use visible or infrared.

[fasterdisaster]

Ok, let me remind everyone again that I'm an amateur. But that being said, it sure looks to me on the water vapor loops that the center of the storm is much further north?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

Don't know what you're seeing.

[KWT]

Looks like Ike has also taken a bit of a westward wobble just recently, seems like its correcting the earlier NW wobble we saw to bring it back along the forecast path.

[pablolopez26]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

Holy ****

Well said. 275 miles is a huge swatch of area.

[tailgater]

I'd like to get a pro opinion, but I think if Ike stays with this broad wind field the winds May tighten up as the center approaches landfall.

[rtd2]

Looks like Ike has also taken a bit of a westward wobble just recently, seems like its correcting the earlier NW wobble we saw to bring it back along the forecast path.

NHC on target again 4-5 days out...kudos again they need to start 7 day forecast on future storms

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like Ike has also taken a bit of a westward wobble just recently, seems like its correcting the earlier NW wobble we saw to bring it back along the forecast path.

NHC on target again 4-5 days out...kudos again they need to start 7 day forecast on future storms

No, they really don't.

[Sabanic]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

Holy ****

Well said. 275 miles is a huge swatch of area.

And that is for the most part N and E of the center. Would like to know what the windfield is on the west side, but probably no more than half that if that.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I don't know if this has already been talked about but it seems the outer eye-wall has now completely taken over. According to the latest VDM the eye is now 16 miles instead of under 10 miles like it had been. This is huge cause if thats the case then Ike still has time to strengthen once the eye-wall finishes closing off!

[fasterdisaster]

I don't know if this has already been talked about but it seems the outer eye-wall has now completely taken over. According to the latest VDM the eye is now 16 miles instead of under 10 miles like it had been. This is huge cause if thats the case then Ike still has time to strengthen once the eye-wall finishes closing off!

Agreed.

[MiamiensisWx]

One small consolation for Galveston Bay:

If Ike makes landfall directly on Galveston and the mouth of the bay, the large wind radii and RMW would imply that the greatest surge values would occur farther east (closer to High Island). Of course, this is contingent on the landfall location and RMW size. If the RMW shrinks (while the wind radii remains as large as the current situation), Galveston Bay would experience the largest surge values. This will be VERY important...

[thetruesms]

AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE.

Interesting.

It is interesting, but it makes sense. They're basically passing each other, so it's like a hurricane rounding high in fast forward

[jinftl]

Will make a difference what side of eye a location is as far as wind though....latest data from NHC (odd that no quadrants reflect the 275 mile radius stated though...max is 240 miles below....regardless.....huge windfield on esp. right side)

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

Holy ****

Well said. 275 miles is a huge swatch of area.

[KWT]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

Holy ****

Well said. 275 miles is a huge swatch of area.

Yep and so the TS winds obviously going to effect a good chunk of the western coast of LA despite the hurricane landfalling near Galveston. Not only that but the very large wind spread is obviously allowing a huge surge. It should be remembered that the surge is the most dangerous part of a hurricane thats landfalling.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html

WSW jog?

[carversteve]

Looks like its still taking in dry air. I don't see it tightening until late tomorrow, if it does at all. Still horrible surge potential in any event.

And you base this on what??