ATL: IKE Discussion

[artist]

Ike certainly has grown these past 48hrs. Man he is huge. His outflow is nearly taking up the entire GOM. If anyone along the threatened coast is thinking of staying put. I say: PLEASE DON'T DO IT! Even if Ike stays steady as a 100 mph sustained cat. 2 storm, with those wind swath of 115 miles (for hurricane force winds) and 275 miles (for gale, i.e. 39 mph or greater, winds) and a flat coast line the storm surge flooding is going to be catastrophically devastating.

as well as the surge energy is equivalent to a cat 5 according to our mets here earlier. That is what happened with Katrina according to them.

[cycloneye]

It was Stephanie Abrams who said about the gust of 139 mph.

She's a dropsonde?

I don't see any evidence from the recon data, which doesn't mean it's not there, I just don't see it.

I also havent seen anything that strong yet,unless our friend RL3AO has data showing that.

[fasterdisaster]

TWC just reported GUST of 139mph

Why anyone thinks this is a Category 1 I have no idea.

Who's thinking that? It's categorized as a 2 now.

Don't want to name names, but a few people were saying that the NHC was only doing that operationally and those winds weren't going down to the surface.

[Derek Ortt]

put the GFDL in the circular file

[RL3AO]

In case anyone from the Galveston or other coastal areas didn't see this from the NWS office in Houston.


MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...5 TO 8 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

[Aristotle]

put the GFDL in the circular file

Lol now thats my kind of pro met. Humor!

[fasterdisaster]

Am I understanding correctly that there is potential (POTENTIAL, not certainty, just potential) for a Charley-like rapid strengthening right as it makes landfall?

[fasterdisaster]

Hopefully this should convince people that Ike is still organizing and still in the process of closing off its eyewall:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

[Dean4Storms]

TWC said Recon found 139kt Flight Level Wind, anybody confirm?

[dhweather]

This will probably help a lot of people understand what is hindering Ike


viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103160&p=1825697#p1825697

I have soooo missed your images dh! It is soooo good to have you back!
Hope you stay.

Why thank you.

[RL3AO]

TWC said Recon found 139kt Flight Level Wind, anybody confirm?

I haven't seen anything over 103kt.

[fasterdisaster]

TWC said Recon found 139kt Flight Level Wind, anybody confirm?

It was a gust.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Hopefully this should convince people that Ike is still organizing and still in the process of closing off its eyewall:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

am I seeing that correctly. It looks to me like that shows the circulation center tighten toward the end there and part of the eye-wall strengthen.

[rtd2]

We can do without the sarcasm. Even if Ike comes in as a category 1 hurricane, he will bring a surge typical of a major hurricane.

The elliptical eye could also be due to the collapse of the inner eye and Ike is reforming.

ABSOLUTLY it could be a sign on getting stronger and I apologize for making anyone think otherwise. I usually dont get into wobble wars or strength wars but sometimes the facts are clear and and an elipitical eye in a hurricane CAN be a sign of weakining or getting stronger. this is still a BIG threat to those in its path.

[fasterdisaster]

Hopefully this should convince people that Ike is still organizing and still in the process of closing off its eyewall:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_24.html

am I seeing that correctly. It looks to me like that shows the circulation center tighten toward the end there and part of the eye-wall strengthen.

Yes you are. It's not completely closed off but he's going with the flow. Category 2 is not a certainty folks.

[tolakram]

Even though it appears to be losing convection I think overall it's improving.

Deep convection but not west of the center.



Not as much deep convection but notice increase on the west side.

[dhweather]

Ike certainly has grown these past 48hrs. Man he is huge. His outflow is nearly taking up the entire GOM. If anyone along the threatened coast is thinking of staying put. I say: PLEASE DON'T DO IT! Even if Ike stays steady as a 100 mph sustained cat. 2 storm, with those wind swath of 115 miles (for hurricane force winds) and 275 miles (for gale, i.e. 39 mph or greater, winds) and a flat coast line the storm surge flooding is going to be catastrophically devastating.

as well as the surge energy is equivalent to a cat 5 according to our mets here earlier. That is what happened with Katrina according to them.

Very similar - the gigantic with Katrina wind field pushed water in relentlessly. Now imagine if Ike was a 5 - 30 foot + in Galveston.

[fasterdisaster]

Even though it appears to be losing convection I think overall it's improving.

Deep convection but not west of the center.



Not as much deep convection but notice increase on the west side.

The thing is we don't know if those dry slots are dry air or the eye clearing out.

[Steve]

Looking SE through the sugarcane fields of Lafourche Parish. Pans WSW toward Houma and a squall down in South Terrebonne Parish. Wind in the 30's.

If I catch anything good tonight or tomorrow, I'll be sure to post links to the videos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh5jNxwIbUo

Hope you enjoy. I report, you decide.

Steve

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Even though it appears to be losing convection I think overall it's improving.

Deep convection but not west of the center.



Not as much deep convection but notice increase on the west side.

The thing is we don't know if those dry slots are dry air or the eye clearing out.

I don't think the eye would clear out until after the eye-wall closes off which it still has to do.