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rob8303
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Hi I'm new here

#1 Postby rob8303 » Sun Jul 20, 2003 10:30 pm

Hey people. I just wanted to introduce myself. My name's Rob and I'm 20 and I'm very interested in tropical storms and hurricanes. They're fascinating but also very deadly and scary. I look forward to posting here over the next few months as hurricane season '03 unfolds.
I have a question: Tropical Depression 6 looks very much like it's in trouble, at least that is how it seems. Do you think this storm will become a hurricane and do you see ANY SIGNIFICANT chance that it will hit the U.S as a major hurricane? I hope not. The feeling I get after reading about how some of the models drop this thing all together after 36 hours is that it's not that big of a threat and may dissipate.
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JetMaxx

#2 Postby JetMaxx » Sun Jul 20, 2003 11:25 pm

Hi Rob!! Welcome aboard!! :)

I don't know about a major hurricane....but I do believe TD 6 aka Erika will become a hurricane; and depending on the track, could be a threat to the U.S. by the weekend...my best estimate is either the Florida peninsula or eastern Gulf Coast (MS/ AL/ Fla Panhandle).

There have only been three landfalling U.S. major hurricanes since 1886 in July....Texas in 1909, Mississippi/ Alabama in 1916...and the Florida Panhandle in 1936. In July 1996, hurricane Bertha struck North Carolina as a 105 mph cat-2 (974 mb).

Again, welcome to Storm2K Rob...I'm so glad you are here! :)

PW
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#3 Postby Toni - 574 » Sun Jul 20, 2003 11:27 pm

Welcome to Storm2K rob8303! Get ready for a lot of sleepless nights! Let's give her a couple more days and see what she does. May have to wait until she gets closer to the GOM before she really starts to intensify.
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#4 Postby southerngale » Mon Jul 21, 2003 12:27 am

Welcome to storm2k Rob. It's nice to have you here. :D
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#5 Postby streetsoldier » Mon Jul 21, 2003 2:01 am

WELCOME!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#6 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Jul 21, 2003 5:59 am

Welcome Rob. I agree with Perry's analysis. Looks like a possible Florida "Big Bend" to panhandle event. I would guess that a CAT 2 would be the strongest that Erika will get. The track by Hispanola and over Cuba will be critical since they both have some pretty high mountains that might weaken the storm depending on the actual track she takes. Going to be a busy week watching here for sure! :-)
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#7 Postby bfez1 » Mon Jul 21, 2003 6:31 am

Welcome to storm2k, Rob!
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 21, 2003 6:32 am

Welcome to storm2k and about the system it will be a tropical storm and if it takes the track projected by TPC and the tropical models it may get into the GOm and then all the gomers will have to watch where it will go.
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#9 Postby Colin » Mon Jul 21, 2003 8:23 am

Welcome to Storm2K, Rob! :) Glad to see you here and enjoy! ;)

Now about TD #6, I think it may strengthen into a hurricane, and the most threatened areas at this time are the Gulf Coast areas, unless it curves like the UKMET/NOGAPS is showing...where a SE U.S Coast landfall would be possible.
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#10 Postby The_Cycloman_PR » Mon Jul 21, 2003 9:50 am

Welcome to Storm2k :D and Greetings from Puerto Rico!!
You selected the perfect time to join in!! So much action in the tropics!

Hard time for TD#6 at this moment, let's wait until it passed PR area. At this moment I see it very poor organized and I believe it will pass south of us as a strong tropical wave, a TD or a minimal tropical storm depending of how it behave today. We will have a better idea after the recon results if they send it. Also today we will get some islands reports when it reach Martinique, Dominique, and Guadaloupe. But don't let your guard down looking at how it is right now, you may get something down the road for the GOM or Florida depending on it's interaction with Hispaniola so keep watching it.

Welcome again!

:jump:


Cycloman.
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#11 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 21, 2003 10:55 am

Welcome Rob..hope you enjoy the site!!! If you need anything let me know!!! :wink:
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#12 Postby Lindaloo » Mon Jul 21, 2003 12:13 pm

WELCOME!!! Great to have you here.
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#13 Postby Amanzi » Mon Jul 21, 2003 12:34 pm

Welcome to Storm2k Rob, this is a great place to sit back and talk tropics :) Glad you joined us ;)
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