ATL: IKE Discussion

[monsoon]

Tonight's update on oil production in the NW GOM:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4517

[JenBayles]

Ch. 11 is now crowing about the spaghetti models moving east. Whoo hooo! By the 10:00 update, the track "may" be east of Houston! Now that's just downright speculation and bad journalism in my opinion.

[Derek Ortt]

yes, steve lyons is one of the very best tropical meteorologists in the business

[Raider Power]

Ike most certainly is not south of the forecast points by a wide margin...WNW motion is definite. He appears to be right on track..for the first time ever i'd say.

Given that the expected landfall, I believe has not moved more than 50 miles for most of the daylight hours, it would seem to me the storm has mostly been on schedule all day long.

[Aristotle]

put the GFDL in the circular file

Lol now thats my kind of pro met. Humor!

I would have expected something like "ceramic hydro-vortex"

lol

[fasterdisaster]

I go away for a hour and this is what I come back to!

[Wx_Warrior]

Always giving the worst case scenario...Everyone does it on here.

All you have to do is use common sense. This is not a Tsunami but it's not something to play with.

Also, CNN and Fox News are worthless..They never report on the weather unless something like this is in the making.

[Lowpressure]

yes, steve lyons is one of the very best tropical meteorologists in the business

Derek, it really appears as if Ike is in a strengthening phase with one eyewall and much more symetrical outflow. Recon does not yet seem to be reflecting this however. What are you seeing here?

[amawea]

IMHO. Steve Lyons os a straight shooter. He doesn't hype it but he doesn't belittle it either. He generally states what the NHC is saying and then gives his opinion as to why it's the way it is. Straight up forecasting. I like that.

[wxman57]

Just a reminder, you can get near real time wind field plots of Ike on the HRD web site. The last one is just 40 minutes old:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

As you can see, Ike's wind field is not quite as large as the NHC is stating in the advisories, at least as far as the 50kt and 64 kt. There are basically no hurricane force winds in the southwest side of the storm except very near the center (10-15 miles from the center). The TS winds extend out a good ways, though. NHC is just keeping that 100nm hurricane force radius in there to the NE-SE but that's a bit too far out there. Still, Ike's a bit above average. You can take a look at a storm like Katrina's wind field in the same area and there's absolutely no comparison. Katrina was way larger than Ike, as was Rita and Ivan.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind2005.html

[Rod Hagen]

Ike most certainly is not south of the forecast points by a wide margin...WNW motion is definite. He appears to be right on track..for the first time ever i'd say.

Not by a wide margin, Weatherfreak, but by enough to make a significant difference to landfall if it stays that way for much longer. Maybe .5ºS in the last 4 hours, I would estimate.

Just as we saw the forecast landfalls having to be pushed north continually for a couple of days, maybe we are going to see them shift back again somewhat. Too early to tell, of course, but the deviation has been fairly consistent for a while now.

Cheers

Rod

[angelwing]

CNN breaking news: People sheltering at ground level at Galveston Bay when Hurricane Ike hits face "certain death," the weather service warns.

[Storm Contractor]

Don't mean for this to be insensitive or cruel. But maybe something good can come out of Ike if it gives people second thoughts about building or living on the coast. I cannot for the life of me understand why people take these kinds of risks when these kind of storms can cause such havoc. Maybe there is a silver lining of sorts if govts rethink their illogical building policies.

If you ever get the chance to watch the sunrise or sunset over the open water, then you would understand why we choose to live there. The fact that a storm MIGHT directly effect where you live 2 or 3 times in a lifetime is not that big of a risk! I know I would live in a stick shack with a water view before I would live in a mansion in the mountains!

[AZRainman]

8 live video news feeds of hurricane Ike, maps and more:
http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html


Houston/Galveston Area Evacuation Maps, Government Links, School Closures, and Media Information

[peteywheatstraw]

Been looking at observations from Buoy 42001 in the Mid Gulf at 25.9 N 89.667W - The eye must have passed pretty close to this buoy because at 4pm CST the air pressure at the buoy was 28.34in. Peak winds at the buoy today however were only 49 knots with gusts to 62 knots. Max wave hts was 30 ft at 2pm and is now most recently down to 16ft. At 750 pm winds had subsided a little to 45/58 knots with pressure rising rapidly.

Looks like Ike's going to have to do some pretty fast intensification to get to a Cat 3 or 4.

[dhweather]

The dramatically improved outflow in the western side of Ike is step one in a possible intensification. He'll still need to get a new tight eyewall and more convection around the center to really get going.

As he is, he's a killer, and people will die if they stay in flood prone or low lying areas.

[Cape Verde]

Ike most certainly is not south of the forecast points by a wide margin...WNW motion is definite. He appears to be right on track..for the first time ever i'd say.

Given that the expected landfall, I believe has not moved more than 50 miles for most of the daylight hours, it would seem to me the storm has mostly been on schedule all day long.

It has.

Tomorrow's NHC advisory will nail it. I am anxiously awaiting that since I'm in the bullseye. Which side of the eyewall I'm on, or whether I'm in the middle of it makes a great deal of difference to where I move furniture, etc. I don't doubt I'll get the full force winds. I just want to know from which direction.

[mvtrucking]

CNN breaking news: People sheltering at ground level at Galveston Bay when Hurricane Ike hits face "certain death," the weather service warns.

CNN is about 10 hours behind on that "breaking news".

[fasterdisaster]

Ike most certainly is not south of the forecast points by a wide margin...WNW motion is definite. He appears to be right on track..for the first time ever i'd say.

I'd say he's both on track and south. Just because a storm isn't exactly on the line doesn't mean it's not on track. I think a vortex put it around 10 miles south (?) but it's a result of stairstepping so the end result is the same.

[O Town]