ATL: IKE Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike most certainly is not south of the forecast points by a wide margin...WNW motion is definite. He appears to be right on track..for the first time ever i'd say.

Not by a wide margin, Weatherfreak, but by enough to make a significant difference to landfall if it stays that way for much longer. Maybe .5ºS in the last 4 hours, I would estimate.

Just as we saw the forecast landfalls having to be pushed north continually for a couple of days, maybe we are going to see them shift back again somewhat. Too early to tell, of course, but the deviation has been fairly consistent for a while now.

Cheers

Sorry? .5S? That's a very vast exaggeration.


Don't really get it...the storm wobbles NW and nobody cares...it's just a wobble...but it wobbles WbyWNW and people are freaking? Frankly if you bring up the Tropical Forecast Points in your loop...it's hardly even .1S of the forecast.

With the approaching trough setting up..I highly doubt this is going to affect official landfall from the NHC.

[Stormcenter]

I hope all of you doubting Ike's current strengthening and eyewall formation heard what Dr Steve Lyons just said. I posted it a few posts up.

Was it just his opinion or that of the NHC?

please stop your denial... if you act in this manner, it may cost you your life. Take this storm seriously, stormcenter

Derek I'm in Austin (long drive) now. I'm hoping for a miracle. Thanks for the concern.

[fasterdisaster]

Been looking at observations from Buoy 42001 in the Mid Gulf at 25.9 N 89.667W - The eye must have passed pretty close to this buoy because at 4pm CST the air pressure at the buoy was 28.34in. Peak winds at the buoy today however were only 49 knots with gusts to 62 knots. Max wave hts was 30 ft at 2pm and is now most recently down to 16ft. At 750 pm winds had subsided a little to 45/58 knots with pressure rising rapidly.

Looks like Ike's going to have to do some pretty fast intensification to get to a Cat 3 or 4.

Yeah, Ike is a 60 mph tropical storm. I don't know what the NHC is smoking with this one! I mean, forget the fact it has an eye, or that dropsondes have supported 100 mph recently, I don't know how the NHC can't see this isn't even a hurricane!

[vaffie]

Ironically, for the second night in a row I'm going to have a relatively good night's sleep. After worrying about Ike (for good reason) for the last two weeks, hoping against hope that Ed Mahmoud was right, laughing and worrying and losing sleep over the GFDL, the EURO, studying every 6 hour change in the GFS and comparing it to the previous run, etc., now that I know that it is probably the biggest storm in 100 years with the pressure of a Category 4 that has not only lost its last major impediment to strengthening--its two eyewall structure--but on satellite is becoming symmetrical and in a bizarre way even beautiful or classic, and when the official forecast takes the eye of this storm that I could easily see falling in pressure down to 920 mb or less by tomorrow night, with Category 4 or 5 winds, and the eye of this once in a century storm has been projected for 30 hours now to go right over my house, I can sleep well tonight--knowing first of all that most of the people on the coast that I was most worried about have left and that things 'can only get better from here', i.e. the projection is such a metadisaster for myself, my family, my extended family, my school, and all of the friends I have made over the past twenty years in this wonderful city of Houston and the surrounding cities of Beaumont, Galveston, Clearlake, Missouri City, Sugarland, and all the other places in this area in which I have dearly loved friends and family, can only be better than I'm thinking, and I might as well sleep and hunker down tomorrow. All the best wishes to everyone. I have loved this Storm2K site for the last few years and have contributed tons of posts, but as of tomorrow night, and as of Ike, I will probably be drained of all energy to post again...until next season of course ... or I suppose until the power is restored. Ike has truly become the monster that for 20 years of tracking hurricanes I was worried most about. Well, now I know. All the best to everyone in Texas and Louisiana... God bless you and yours. Love, vaffie

[fasterdisaster]

I wasn't aware the seawall was only 10 feet above sea level! I just heard it was 16 feet and I thought that was that, but the sand's been pushed up so the wall is only 10 feet high. In that case, this 20 foot storm surge is going to be even worse than I thought it would be!

[peteywheatstraw]

I never said that Ike wasn't a hurricane - can you find where I said that. I don't dispute the dropsonde either - but here's a representative actual measurement from a buoy that bore the brunt of IKE's passing and I just find it a bit interesting that it only had minimal hurricane force winds.

[JenBayles]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-140230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.080912T1400Z-080914T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
919 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN BANDS
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS IKE
MOVES INLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

* REMEMBER...WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND...DON`T
DROWN. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

$$

[AZRainman]

Storm surge map:

[lost cause]

I wasn't aware the seawall was only 10 feet above sea level! I just heard it was 16 feet and I thought that was that, but the sand's been pushed up so the wall is only 10 feet high. In that case, this 20 foot storm surge is going to be even worse than I thought it would be!

Where did you see this?

[CronkPSU]

besides the obvious effect of wind and rain damage, what impact on surge would it have if the storm's winds finally got to cat 3 or minimial 4 level but pressure stayed around where it is at right now?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Don't mean for this to be insensitive or cruel. But maybe something good can come out of Ike if it gives people second thoughts about building or living on the coast. I cannot for the life of me understand why people take these kinds of risks when these kind of storms can cause such havoc. Maybe there is a silver lining of sorts if govts rethink their illogical building policies.

If you ever get the chance to watch the sunrise or sunset over the open water, then you would understand why we choose to live there. The fact that a storm MIGHT directly effect where you live 2 or 3 times in a lifetime is not that big of a risk! I know I would live in a stick shack with a water view before I would live in a mansion in the mountains!

Agree....we're in the drama of it all right now. New Orleans has only been "hit" twice in over 40 years. All of the rest of the days are just fine in this unique city. As for New Orleans--Katrina was a 400 year storm. Gustav was wonderful for me. It made me remember how hurricanes normally are----limbs go down, power goes out for a couple of days (only 6 hours at my house in Mid-City New Orleans for Gustav) and within a few days, life returns to normal. Hurricanes are very serious, but, if it was so bad that it was life altering (other than Katrina) cities like Mobile, Houston, Pensacola, New Orleans, Galveston, etc. would not exist. The fact that we are here, thriving, and living a great life is the most telling thing about living on the Gulf Coast.

[fasterdisaster]

I wasn't aware the seawall was only 10 feet above sea level! I just heard it was 16 feet and I thought that was that, but the sand's been pushed up so the wall is only 10 feet high. In that case, this 20 foot storm surge is going to be even worse than I thought it would be!

Where did you see this?

TWC, but you look to be from Galveston so if they were wrong feel free to tell me, it's just what Jim Cantore said.

[terrapintransit]

Been looking at observations from Buoy 42001 in the Mid Gulf at 25.9 N 89.667W - The eye must have passed pretty close to this buoy because at 4pm CST the air pressure at the buoy was 28.34in. Peak winds at the buoy today however were only 49 knots with gusts to 62 knots. Max wave hts was 30 ft at 2pm and is now most recently down to 16ft. At 750 pm winds had subsided a little to 45/58 knots with pressure rising rapidly.

Looks like Ike's going to have to do some pretty fast intensification to get to a Cat 3 or 4.

Yeah, Ike is a 60 mph tropical storm. I don't know what the NHC is smoking with this one! I mean, forget the fact it has an eye, or that dropsondes have supported 100 mph recently, I don't know how the NHC can't see this isn't even a hurricane!

Fasterdisaster......What my friend, are YOU smoking?? Do you honestly believe this is NOT a hurricane? Pass whatever it is your smoking over to me and let me see if I get that same effect because it looks like one to me.....

[fasterdisaster]

Don't mean for this to be insensitive or cruel. But maybe something good can come out of Ike if it gives people second thoughts about building or living on the coast. I cannot for the life of me understand why people take these kinds of risks when these kind of storms can cause such havoc. Maybe there is a silver lining of sorts if govts rethink their illogical building policies.

If you ever get the chance to watch the sunrise or sunset over the open water, then you would understand why we choose to live there. The fact that a storm MIGHT directly effect where you live 2 or 3 times in a lifetime is not that big of a risk! I know I would live in a stick shack with a water view before I would live in a mansion in the mountains!

Agree....we're in the drama of it all right now. New Orleans has only been "hit" twice in over 40 years. All of the rest of the days are just fine in this unique city. As for New Orleans--Katrina was a 400 year storm. Gustav was wonderful for me. It made me remember how hurricanes normally are----limbs go down, power goes out for a couple of days (only 6 hours at my house in Mid-City New Orleans for Gustav) and within a few days, life returns to normal. Hurricanes are very serious, but, if it was so bad that it was life altering (other than Katrina) cities like Mobile, Houston, Pensacola, New Orleans, Galveston, etc. would not exist. The fact that we are here, thriving, and living a great life is the most telling thing about living on the Gulf Coast.

Totally agree, but that said, I can also understand why lonelymike would think we were crazy, as having lived in California half my life (which is also very nice) I definitely thought anyone who would actually risk so much was crazy, but now I understand how nice it is and that usually it's worth the risk.

[artist]

I never said that Ike wasn't a hurricane - can you find where I said that. I don't dispute the dropsonde either - but here's a representative actual measurement from a buoy that bore the brunt of IKE's passing and I just find it a bit interesting that it only had minimal hurricane force winds.

and did you know in any hurricane the hurricane windfield can be lower in some spots, higher in others. As well, could it be it is at this point in time only in the ts field? Using a single station to say how a hurricane is doing is beyond preposterous!

[Txdivermom]

CNN breaking news: People sheltering at ground level at Galveston Bay when Hurricane Ike hits face "certain death," the weather service warns.

CNN is about 10 hours behind on that "breaking news".

Watching Anderson Cooper...LOL...He asked the CNN weather guy to shoot him an email about where to set up to broadcast tomorrow night from 10-12 in the area where he'd get good shots of wind whipping around...Anderson said Houston? Galveston? And before Anderson got Galveston out of his mouth the weather guy just about screamed NO.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Galveston is already flooding in places.

[cheezyWXguy]

Been looking at observations from Buoy 42001 in the Mid Gulf at 25.9 N 89.667W - The eye must have passed pretty close to this buoy because at 4pm CST the air pressure at the buoy was 28.34in. Peak winds at the buoy today however were only 49 knots with gusts to 62 knots. Max wave hts was 30 ft at 2pm and is now most recently down to 16ft. At 750 pm winds had subsided a little to 45/58 knots with pressure rising rapidly.

Looks like Ike's going to have to do some pretty fast intensification to get to a Cat 3 or 4.

Yeah, Ike is a 60 mph tropical storm. I don't know what the NHC is smoking with this one! I mean, forget the fact it has an eye, or that dropsondes have supported 100 mph recently, I don't know how the NHC can't see this isn't even a hurricane!

Fasterdisaster......What my friend, are YOU smoking?? Do you honestly believe this is NOT a hurricane? Pass whatever it is your smoking over to me and let me see if I get that same effect because it looks like one to me.....

it was sarcasm.

[abajan]

Superfly, If you can't see that Ike is getting better organized then why are you here because you must be blind.

Whether it is becoming better organized is debateable, but it certainly is NOT strengthening. People have also been trying to ride the "better organized" line for the last day now, including many pro-mets last night calling for a cat 4 this morning. How exactly is it better organized? Certainly not the rising pressure, certainly not the expanding wind field, and certainly not the dry slots around the CDO.

Well said. That was a totally uncalled for comment by amawea, IMO. Can we be a bit more civil to each other, please?

[JenBayles]

I wasn't aware the seawall was only 10 feet above sea level! I just heard it was 16 feet and I thought that was that, but the sand's been pushed up so the wall is only 10 feet high. In that case, this 20 foot storm surge is going to be even worse than I thought it would be!

Where did you see this?

TWC, but you look to be from Galveston so if they were wrong feel free to tell me, it's just what Jim Cantore said.

When I came to Houston in 1980, there was a huge beach that extended quite a ways from the seawall. Over the years, and particularly after Alicia, that beach got disintegrated. It's gone. No more leeway for rising tides and storm surges. Galveston has tried various projects to rebuild that beach, but mother nature just takes it right back. IMO, Galveston has become pretty complacent where the seawall is concerned. With all the erosion, it's really not that much protection.