ATL: IKE Discussion

[txag2005]

VDM reported no eyewall. Looks like that inner core finally died.

What does this mean in terms of intensification?

Most likely it means an eye wall replace cycle is underway.

Does this mean the possibility of rapid intensification? The NHC just updated projected landfall to only be a cat 2, but I can't get the thoughts of a Cat 4 out of my mind.

[RL3AO]

VDM reported no eyewall. Looks like that inner core finally died.

What does this mean in terms of intensification?

Most likely it means an eye wall replace cycle is underway.

Its been in an EWRC for three days now.

[SMNederlandTX]

It looks like it shifted a little east, is that correct or am I being overly paranoid?

[rainman]

shifted 10 miles east

[SMNederlandTX]

shifted 10 miles east

So, what does this mean for my area? Port Arthur/Beaumont area.

[dhweather]

It looks like it shifted a little east, is that correct or am I being overly paranoid?

as they say, do not focus on one single point......

[tolakram]

Kind of curious why they just flew around in circles a few times way NW of the storm... *ponders* They aren't having equipment problems are they? (that's if Pojo is around to answer and not on the plane )

I was on the plane... it was for timing

On the plane, nice

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Like WxGuy1 posted, it could mean Ike will get a new eye wall and become stronger. It is just too hard to tell. Not enough information. Even the NHC admites we just don't understand hurricane inter core dymanics enough to predict them with any certainly. Let us all hope it doesn't get stronger.

[dhweather]

shifted 10 miles east

So, what does this mean for my area? Port Arthur/Beaumont area.

You are under a hurricane warning. You will have hurricane conditions tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Being on the east side of the storm, you will have a significant storm surge.

I'd check with local officials if I were you.

[CrazyC83]

Its been in an EWRC for three days now.

I think we are seeing a double-ERC right now. The fact that the inner eyewall survived for soooooo long meant the outer eyewall never had a chance and we might see a third eyewall develop...

[Brent]

shifted 10 miles east

So, what does this mean for my area? Port Arthur/Beaumont area.

You're still on the worst side so it doesn't change much.

[SMNederlandTX]

shifted 10 miles east

So, what does this mean for my area? Port Arthur/Beaumont area.

You are under a hurricane warning. You will have hurricane conditions tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Being on the east side of the storm, you will have a significant storm surge.

I'd check with local officials if I were you.

I know all that, what I meant was, does this make things worse or about the same for my area?

[dwg71]

Galveston evacuation ordered as Hurricane Ike nears; Category 4 strength, Friday landfall possible.

copied from msnbc.com

this is why i hate the media... and im a democrat:)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Isidore syndrome? After being knocked back from Cat 4, as a large sprawling system, it could never get tightened back up?


Just a guess.


Mid to high end Cat 2 with an abnormally large windfield is bad enough.

[rainman]

my family is from port arthur and is with me now...so i am keeping a really close eye on this. Wind gusts up to 90 mph can be expected. The main concern will be storm surge. The seawall in port arthur only holds 15 feet. if the track shifts further east storm surge could be up to 20 feet. This would breach the port arthur seawall. If you are still in Nederland I would think hard about leaving.

[artist]

Where I live on the island doesn't get a whole lotta talk: the north side. If Ike strikes anywhere from about mid-Galveston Island to Freeport, the surge will run up the Bay and wrap around the eastern side of the island and flood the backside badly. We're not protected from the Bay by anything, so should the surge come in the "back door," everything from Harborside to Broadway would be in serious danger of flooding.

and he lives off Broadway.

[sponger]

For those of you out of the storm surge coastal areas, local evac is fine. If you are in a weak structure or have large trees around you may want to consider moving out. A cat 2 or 3 is easily survivable away from the coast.

Anyone on the coast who is still reading this needs to be moving by tomorrow early
afternoon!

[superfly]

An eyewall is definitely forming. Anyone who doesn't think Ike is getting its act together, I don't know what to tell you.

Totally, who wouldn't think Ike is strengthening? Rising pressure and no eye reported by recon, it's undergoing rapid intensification as we speak.

[wxman57]

Here's my rideout position for Ike. Almost 12 miles from Galveston Bay. Out of the surge zone. I just hope Ike takes a little jog NW again before landfall:

[SMNederlandTX]

my family is from port arthur and is with me now...so i am keeping a really close eye on this. Wind gusts up to 90 mph can be expected. The main concern will be storm surge. The seawall in port arthur only holds 15 feet. if the track shifts further east storm surge could be up to 20 feet. This would breach the port arthur seawall. If you are still in Nederland I would think hard about leaving.

We are still here and suppose to be going to my mother in laws tomorrow, she lives in Beaumont...Think it will be better there?