ATL: IKE Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Right thru the heart of Galveston.

[Sanibel]

Filling out and expansion of outflow on west side.

KISS: If storm is not clearly strong with a defined eye it's struggling. Or about to snap into gear?

[CrazyC83]

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI.

Beginnings of eyewall #3 it appears...

[CrazyC83]

whoops wrong place...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

[Nexus]

Ike will be entering an area of higher heat content soon. 50kJ/cm^2 (the yellow) + low shear could mean some intensification.

Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track (18z):



About Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track

Daily Oceanic Heat Content or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) estimates are provided by Gustavo Goni at the Physical Oceanography Division of the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory located in Miami, FL. The spatial grid spacing is 0.2 Latitude x 0.2 Longitude and the units of the estimates are given as kJ/cm^2. A detailed description of how the product is created, product archives and TCHP in other regions can be found at Gustavo's web discussing TCHP . Tropical cyclone forecasts, as described above, are plotted on values of ocean heat content for reference.

For tropical cyclones in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (i.e., vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity >50 %, and warm SSTs [i.e., >28.5C])and with intensities less than 80kt, values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 have been shown to promote greater rates of intensity change.

[Steve]

>>As for New Orleans--Katrina was a 400 year storm

Sean,

I know it's not the Katrina thread but I think it's maybe a once in a 50-75 year storm (Cat 3's every 38-40 years +/-) and it was at best gusting to Cat 2 everywhere in the metro but lower Plaquemines and St. Bernard. Cat 4's and Cat 5's (I believe I remember reading something like +/- 1/80, 1/175 years for w/in 60 miles of N.O.). However, I would agree that it had very unique dynamics with the Cat 5 level storm surge and the amount of water it moved.

Anyway, it's raining here as we just got a pretty nice band blow through. Looks like another one feeding in from the ESE.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

FWIW, I live about 2/3rds of an inch almost due east of Houma on that map.

Steve

[lost cause]

Where I live on the island doesn't get a whole lotta talk: the north side. If Ike strikes anywhere from about mid-Galveston Island to Freeport, the surge will run up the Bay and wrap around the eastern side of the island and flood the backside badly. We're not protected from the Bay by anything, so should the surge come in the "back door," everything from Harborside to Broadway would be in serious danger of flooding.

and he lives off Broadway.

Broadway, even in a hard rain, can turn into a flood trap. I can completely sympathize with his condition. My wife and I live on the north side in a small subdiv off Harborside right near the Interstate, so, we're in the same shape he's in. (We've evac'd to her mom's house in La., so we're outta the way.)

[txag2005]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

[Ed Mahmoud]

An eyewall is definitely forming. Anyone who doesn't think Ike is getting its act together, I don't know what to tell you.

Totally, who wouldn't think Ike is strengthening? Rising pressure and no eye reported by recon, it's undergoing rapid intensification as we speak.

[rainman]

Beaumont should be far enough out for the surge (N beaumont would be better). You can still expect 80+ winds more than likely.

[baitism]

Totally, who wouldn't think Ike is strengthening? Rising pressure and no eye reported by recon, it's undergoing rapid intensification as we speak.

No reason to be an ass about it. I suppose you are the end all on all forecasting.

[Javlin]

Here's my rideout position for Ike. Almost 12 miles from Galveston Bay. Out of the surge zone. I just hope Ike takes a little jog NW again before landfall:

One thing WX57 remember the river behind you and the stream out front they are going to bust loose if comes in like they say,are they that big?and far from the house?

[Stormcenter]

The NHC's 11pm discussion is encouraging. It doesn't "sound" like the NHC is all gung ho about Ike strengthening significantly (cat.4-5) before landfall. They also shifted the track a little south. This may not mean much in the whole scope of things for us here but hey I'll take what I can get.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... ame=Dallas

[Stormtrack03]

The following is not a forecast and just my humble opinion.


I believe that Ike still has a great chance at reaching cat 3 (major status) before landfall... NHC again a bit conservative at 11 pm, it could be even stronger now.

[CronkPSU]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

live oaks in central florida during Charlie took a beating, my camp lost over 50 live oaks during the storm and I know towns like winter park had lots of its damages from live oaks falling

[Tireman4]

Here's my rideout position for Ike. Almost 12 miles from Galveston Bay. Out of the surge zone. I just hope Ike takes a little jog NW again before landfall:

Stay safe. I work at Houston Community College- Southeast Campus. I hope he takes a little NW jog too, but I am afraid he will not (just my opinion).

[superdeluxe]

Derek has a new forecast up..has the line just east of galveston bay.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Do large oak trees survive better than pines in Cat 2 winds? I usually hear that pines are the major concern as they tend to snap pretty quickly. We have about 4-5 big oak trees around the yard, which I'm concerned about.

Not the ones in Orlando, FL during Hurricane Charley. Wind gusts to 100mph+ knocked down hundreds and hundreds of old oaks across the city as the storm blew through.

[wxsouth]

The few ssmi images along with recent IR and all the recon data tell a pretty clear story. The inner core from the past few days still has not completely collapsed. In my opinion...the longer we see convection flare up very close to the center the lower the chances are for significant intensification. The radius of maximum winds is well outside of this inner core and this is very well supported by the recon data. Convection inside this main band is not going to intensify the system...only convection associated with the outer eyewall. If the inner core does eventually completely collapse (convection dies near the center) I would expect some slow strengthening. The outer eyewall is so large (~100nm wide) that rapid intensification seems very unlikely. It takes a lot more energy to contract a large eye than a small one. On the other hand, with the winds pretty strong in the outer wind max...only a modest contraction would lead to pretty decent intensification (spinning skater analogy).

Ike remains a very dangerous storm and will produce a very significant storm surge. In terms of winds...don't expect much change unless the convection shifts focus to the outer eyewall.