ATL: IKE Discussion

[HurricaneRobert]

I think that's more dry air thinning the eyewall, rather than replacing it with a larger one. But I won't argue anything since people here bit at me early today for suggesting the pressure was rising a little bit and that I thought the storm might make landfall at category 2 intensity.

[Derek Ortt]

I have seen dry air mentioned on this forum a lot lately... and despite explaining what is needd for dry air to cause weakening, we still see the same wrong info posted time and again

without shear, dry air cannot penetrate the core

[curtadams]

Lots of talk about the Houston area but the surge map shows Port Arthur getting the worst - a 23 foot surge, which matches Camille, which *used* to be the example for ungodly surge. I hope the people in far NE Texas are getting properly warned, because this might be a lot worse than Rita for them and I doubt many would expect that from a storm coming in to Galveston.

[wxsouth]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

starting to wonder if this will even intensify at all.

Like I mentioned earlier Derek, significant intensification seems unlikely unless the remnants of the inner core convection collapse completely and the convection focuses on the 100nm eyewall. While the convection in the outer eyewall does seem to be a bit better organized...the inner core convection is still going. If the inner core collapses, we might see 100kt...otherwise...probably steady state.

[HurricaneRobert]

They mentioned it in Discussion 43, right before they mentioned the weakening convection on the west side. Something is causing those huge breaks near the core.

[Steve]

>>It would be pretty crazy for two storms to spend over 36 hours each in the GOM in Late August/Early September and not get stronger and maybe actually weaken.

Dynomat?
------------------------
We're seeing some near TS conditions this evening down my way after some tidal flooding throughout NWFL, AL, MS and SELA this evening. Not bad for a storm as far away as Ike currently is from me.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Ike will be one that the mets here and in the NHC will make plenty of studies about its unique track and about its eternal struggle to organize one inner core.

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

starting to wonder if this will even intensify at all.

You may be right Derek. I'm reading more posts from other METS on here that are now stating that it may not intensify.....

[Nederlander]

im here in mid jefferson county and we were going to ride it out, but Greg Bostwick, Chief Met for KFDM 6 in Beaumont said anyone south of I-10 needs to get out. Storm surge could be 20+ feet which would definitely top the seawall in port arthur. He also mentioned the levees protecting mid county could breach if the storm surge is that large. I am getting a real sick feeling to my stomach. Even though this wont be as strong as Rita, its implications on the Golden Triangle could be devastating. But I am heeding the warning and getting out in a few hours....

[CronkPSU]

let's hope/pray that Derek or some other future Cane scientist can write papers on why large gulf storms have trouble intensifying post-Rita...and hope it can be a 30 year study with no exceptions to the rule

[RL3AO]

Looks to be due west or close to that according to recon in the past hour or two.

[Pebbles]

Kind of curious why they just flew around in circles a few times way NW of the storm... *ponders* They aren't having equipment problems are they? (that's if Pojo is around to answer and not on the plane )

I was on the plane... it was for timing

Uh.. that's so cool! ... I'd never have the nerve. I'm a wuss! So neat to sit here and think... Pojo might of just did that drop (I often did today as the dropsondes came in ya know!) How does it feel to have us recon addicts waiting on pins and needles for you to do your thing? *Winks*

P.S. If I was willing to send you 50 bucks to take a marker and write Pebbles says "More Recon Baby" on a dropsonde and email me a picture of it and which drop number it was ... would ya? This is just hypothetical of course! My hubby would never understand why I wanted $50

[WxGuy1]

I have seen dry air mentioned on this forum a lot lately... and despite explaining what is needd for dry air to cause weakening, we still see the same wrong info posted time and again

without shear, dry air cannot penetrate the core

Derek,

Certainly you looked at visible satellite imagery quite a few times on Wednesday. It was very apparent that dry air was being entrained into Ike from the west. The IR didn't show it well because there was some thin cirrus overhead, but it was quite evident on visible satellite imagery. You've mentioned this enough times that I'm going to see if I can find a good vis sat image from yesterday to show as evidence.

Of course, you're only saying that dry air means nothing w/o shear, and you're not necessarily saying that shear was not present yesterday. However, you seem to be implying that dry air has had NO effect on Ike, an implication with which I disagree.

[curtadams]

I have seen dry air mentioned on this forum a lot lately... and despite explaining what is needd for dry air to cause weakening, we still see the same wrong info posted time and again

without shear, dry air cannot penetrate the core

But there *is* shear, Derek. 10-20 knots upper shear. And at mid-levels the hurricane generates little wind to mix it in. Since Ike has had virtually no rainbands to the W and N even a light breeze at the mid-levels could push the very dry continental air in. We've seen all along lots of evidence this has been happening, because Ike hasn't been able to generate an eyewall to the NW even with otherwise highly favorable conditions.

[southmdwatcher]

Looks like very deep convection is erupting in the area around the center(south and east side)

[img][/img]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

[Sanibel]

This could be an intensity guessing game until the center enters long range radar tomorrow.

[fox13weather]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

starting to wonder if this will even intensify at all.

He has had plenty of opportunity to do so today and could not. The environment ahead of the storm does not favor rapid intensification. Ike is yet another storm in a long list of storms where the intensity forecast was missed. until there is a better understanding of the energy transfer between the ocean and the storm there will be little improvment in the forecasts.

[SMNederlandTX]

Have they issued mandatory evacuations for the Port Arthur area?

Yes they have issued mandatory evacuations for all of Jefferson County, they did that this morning.

[Ptarmigan]

For anyone in Houston, here is a link to see what kind of sustained winds you will get based on zip code.
http://houstonhidefromthewind.org/

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

starting to wonder if this will even intensify at all.

He has had plenty of opportunity to do so today and could not. The environment ahead of the storm does not favor rapid intensification. Ike is yet another storm in a long list of storms where the intensity forecast was missed. until there is a better understanding of the energy transfer between the ocean and the storm there will be little improvment in the forecasts.

It is because of Ike himself - the inner eyewall not budging choked off the outer eyewall and they collapsed on each other...