
ATL: IKE Discussion
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
This was from just recently. Sorry if someone posted this earlier in the thread (I have yet to go back and further then current page):


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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
IN anybody's educated opinion...will it make much difference in the surge potential in Galveston Bay if Ike were to land right in near bay city versus Freeport or galveston. my understand from a surge map I saw was Free port was the WORST case for galveston bay with IKE being so big. Would a landfall a hair south make much difference.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- HouTXmetro
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
I am such an amateur at this, but my original forecast early this week was for a Cat 3/low end Cat 4 landfalling SW of Galveston.
I don't see any reason to change that totally unofficial idea and given the most recent sat shots tonight, I can't help but wonder if Ike will finally approach Cat 4 status in the next 24 hours.
One thing I think could definitely occur out of this hurricane is that people will no longer talk about Carla as the "big one" to hit Texas in the last half century.
That moniker may very well be reserved for Ike and all of the water he's bringing, no matter what the top wind speeds finally prove to be.
I don't see any reason to change that totally unofficial idea and given the most recent sat shots tonight, I can't help but wonder if Ike will finally approach Cat 4 status in the next 24 hours.
One thing I think could definitely occur out of this hurricane is that people will no longer talk about Carla as the "big one" to hit Texas in the last half century.
That moniker may very well be reserved for Ike and all of the water he's bringing, no matter what the top wind speeds finally prove to be.
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Re:
HouTXmetro wrote:Chances Houston being on the clean side are diminishing by each minute Ike scoots West.
What radar are you looking at HouTXmetro?
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
read in Houston Chronicle many people chose not leave Glaveston Island...hope they wake up to their senses tomorrow and scoot over the bridge to a friend or a shelter...
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: Re:
serenata09 wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:Chances Houston being on the clean side are diminishing by each minute Ike scoots West.
What radar are you looking at HouTXmetro?
NO radar, satellite images. About tobe no good due to eclipes.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
PTPatrick wrote:IN anybody's educated opinion...will it make much difference in the surge potential in Galveston Bay if Ike were to land right in near bay city versus Freeport or galveston. my understand from a surge map I saw was Free port was the WORST case for galveston bay with IKE being so big. Would a landfall a hair south make much difference.
The educated opinion of a local met here in SE Texas said and repeated that no - it would not. The surge is already on its way and the windfield is too big for slights shifts to be cause for rejoicing.
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HouTXmetro wrote:Anybody have a link to satellite images not in eclipes? Or are all satellites in eclipes this time of night?
navy sats page
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/ir/geo/1km_bw/full/Latest.html
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
PTPatrick wrote:read in Houston Chronicle many people chose not leave Glaveston Island...hope they wake up to their senses tomorrow and scoot over the bridge to a friend or a shelter...
They may start getting some tropical storm force gusts early tomorrow - at least by midday.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ndgalv.jpg
For what its worth...this is surge potential for a landfall at galveston's west end. I actually think its underdone...especially at the heads of the bays and bayous. Shows most of the following inundated:
Kemah, league city, bay cliff, baytown, deer park, la porte, texas city, lamarque, and hitchcock.
By my estimates there are somewhere between 600-800,000 people in those cities alone
For what its worth...this is surge potential for a landfall at galveston's west end. I actually think its underdone...especially at the heads of the bays and bayous. Shows most of the following inundated:
Kemah, league city, bay cliff, baytown, deer park, la porte, texas city, lamarque, and hitchcock.
By my estimates there are somewhere between 600-800,000 people in those cities alone
Last edited by PTPatrick on Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
Going back to something I heard earlier, I was in Galveston the past two summers and I can tell you that I believe Jim Cantore's statement about the seawall being only about 10 feet or so above the water now.
Perhaps a GPS measurement would prove me wrong, but the beaches at Galveston just don't slope much at all, certainly not seven feet IMO.
I even mentioned that fact to my wife this summer (that the seawall certainly didn't look 17 feet above the water to me) as our kids played in the surf.
All I know is that anyone who stayed on Galveston Island is nuts.
Perhaps a GPS measurement would prove me wrong, but the beaches at Galveston just don't slope much at all, certainly not seven feet IMO.
I even mentioned that fact to my wife this summer (that the seawall certainly didn't look 17 feet above the water to me) as our kids played in the surf.
All I know is that anyone who stayed on Galveston Island is nuts.
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
I read earlier today in the Houston Chron's online edition that the mayor's office in Galveston believed there might be as many as 1,500 holdouts.
If that's true and it doesn't change tomorrow and Ike's surge potential is realized, there could be a lot of deaths out of that number.
And yes, I'm sure there are chasers on Galveston Island right now.
As Jim Cantore did his live shots tonight, seemed like a fair amount of traffic on the seawall boulevard - certainly didn't look like a ghost town to me.
If that's true and it doesn't change tomorrow and Ike's surge potential is realized, there could be a lot of deaths out of that number.
And yes, I'm sure there are chasers on Galveston Island right now.
As Jim Cantore did his live shots tonight, seemed like a fair amount of traffic on the seawall boulevard - certainly didn't look like a ghost town to me.
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
I've been out of the loop for a few hours so i apologize if this has been posted...didn't see mention of it on the last few pages so taking a chance...
NWS Houston issued a lengthy statement on Ike....there are excerpts of it here that are stunning and terrifying to read...for those who are speculating if he will strengthen or not..at least as far as surge, he is an absolute monster....
Regarding surge risk in surge zone areas:
ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES
WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml
NWS Houston issued a lengthy statement on Ike....there are excerpts of it here that are stunning and terrifying to read...for those who are speculating if he will strengthen or not..at least as far as surge, he is an absolute monster....
Regarding surge risk in surge zone areas:
ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES
WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
Yes some media members are in Galveston at a "secure" hotel. I believe Anderson Cooper (CNN) will be broadcasting live there tomorrow.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
I knew as it was starting a EWRC, as it was moving into eastern Cuba, that it was entering land at its weakest time. The Inner and outter eye wall never had a chance to decide who would control Ike, so once it got back to the gulf it has to reorganize its own innercore. This thing will NEVER GET its act together within the next 24-30 hours before landfall. I expect a cat2 with winds of around 90 knots at landfall,,,This will be near Houston.
Could it be damaging, YES. Also, there will be a monster surge that has been built up by this monster. But even with all the damage that will cause, I believe that the fact that it went inland as it was going through a EWRC in Cuba saved Texas from a possible cat4 or even cat5 hurricane. That is what I believe.
Could it be damaging, YES. Also, there will be a monster surge that has been built up by this monster. But even with all the damage that will cause, I believe that the fact that it went inland as it was going through a EWRC in Cuba saved Texas from a possible cat4 or even cat5 hurricane. That is what I believe.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion
IDK if anybody has already mentioned this because this is the first time I heard (just now on the radio) but they're saying mandatory evacuations have been issued for Jasper, Newton and Tyler counties. Tyler county is pretty far inland, much further inland than Houston and all of Harris County and they're telling where the special needs (211) people can go.
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