ATL: IKE Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tornado risk increasing in Lousiana...

[Senobia]

IDK if anybody has already mentioned this because this is the first time I heard (just now on the radio) but they're saying mandatory evacuations have been issued for Jasper, Newton and Tyler counties. Tyler county is pretty far inland, much further inland than Houston and all of Harris County and they're telling where the special needs (211) people can go.

Tyler Co. is Woodville. So..what, maybe 30-40mi from Beaumont?

This order was issued at 930pm.

FWIW, during Rita..in Lufkin (Angelina Co), an evac order was issued and 100mph winds were expected. Lots of damage there, too. And it was FULL of evacuees to boot!

[txag2005]

Unreal to me that Galveston still has people hanging around. I have many friends in the area, and I believe all got out. Some just moved to higher ground on the outer surge zone (Friendswood etc..) but at least its better than Galveston.

If this storm holds up and Galveston gets 15-20 ft surge, the damage will be unimaginable. The thought is really upsetting as my two years in the Galveston Bay area have really made me grow fond of Galveston.

[Pebbles]

Seems ABC13 in Houston has gone off the air for the night. Does anyone know if there are other streaming news channels that are going all night?

[Texas Snowman]

Matt,

Hope you are right on your idea that there is no way Ike can get his act together in 24 hours.

I'm just hoping that it doesn't pull an overnight stunt like it did in the Atlantic and ramp up to high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4 intensity. I still think that's possible.

And as for Cuba, I think it may have saved Texas' bacon from a strong Cat 4, but I'm not sure that a very large hurricane like Ike could make it to the Gulf Coast this year as a Cat 5.

[CronkPSU]

[Ptarmigan]

Ike is gigantic!

He fills pretty much the entire Gulf. That is pretty amazing!

It is even larger than Katrina!

[HouTXmetro]

Seems ABC13 in Houston has gone off the air for the night. Does anyone know if there are other streaming news channels that are going all night?

KHOU 11

[Texas Snowman]

Anybody hear Dr. Neil Franks' thoughts on Ike?

I know he retired earlier this year, but I thought I had heard that he would help them out on hurricanes.

Would be curious to hear his thoughts, I have great respect for him.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Matt,

Hope you are right on your idea that there is no way Ike can get his act together in 24 hours.

I'm just hoping that it doesn't pull an overnight stunt like it did in the Atlantic and ramp up to high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4 intensity. I still think that's possible.

And as for Cuba, I think it may have saved Texas' bacon from a strong Cat 4, but I'm not sure that a very large hurricane like Ike could make it to the Gulf Coast this year as a Cat 5.

IIRc, a Cat 5 has never hit Texas.

[Rod Hagen]

I find it funny that the NHC adjusted to the East when he was already south of the forecast points. They were probably going off the 8pm model plots though. They'll probably shift back to the west at 5.

Likewise HH914,

It spent almost all of yesterday (eastern Australian time) getting further and further to the northeast of the original forecast line, but it took them a long while to adjust the LF eastwards. Today (Oz time), for quite a few few hours, it has been doing exactly the reverse (yet, as you say, they moved the landfall and tracking points east again).

Ike has still got enough time to change its direction again, I reckon, though.

Cheers

Rod

[WxGuy1]

And secondly, and I think you're saying this too, is that the increased advisory might just make people pay attention a little more, which would certainly be a good thing.

That's true, but the harm in a false alarm is great (that's part of the 'hurricane fatigue'). In fact, I see that the latest VDM actually corrected that 95 kt sfc wind to only a 74 kt sfc wind. Since they opted to disregard the 95kt ob (which didn't fit it with any of the surrounding observations), I actually think that Ike still is likely weaker than the advisory intensity, as it perhaps has been for the past 24 hours. The FL winds have been supportive of a 100 mph hurricane without fail, but I haven't seen any SFMR or valid dropsonde data that have measured 100 mph sfc winds. Of course, there's the elusive "well, perhaps the strongest winds weren't measured" that the NHC uses from time to time, but that can be just as deceiving and harmful in terms of false alarms. I'm not saying this is a false alarm, but I still think most need to focus more on the surge potential than the wind potential. The wind potential, though, is what primarily affects inland residents and locales.

Now, as to why Ike has had very large areas of ~100-103 kt FL winds while winds at the surface were much (30-40%) lower is beyond me... Both the SFMR and dropsondes have indicated that the 0.9 reduction factor for FL to SFC is too high for most of Ike, with it being closer to 0.6 and 0.7 in some places.

[haml8]

Do you think we should call in and ask about the collapsed core and the percieved West motion over the past 4-5 hours??

[jinftl]

Parts of the SE LA coast are reporting 6-8 foot water rises....hundreds of miles from center...wherever the center hits the coast and to the right are going to get pounded....areas to the west of eye will have no picnic either but the flow may help the surge some.

It is the lesser of 2 evils...but you want to be west of where the eye makes landfall if possible. I really hope SW LA is following evac orders etc.....they will be in nasty right quadrant regardless it seems.

Unreal to me that Galveston still has people hanging around. I have many friends in the area, and I believe all got out. Some just moved to higher ground on the outer surge zone (Friendswood etc..) but at least its better than Galveston.

If this storm holds up and Galveston gets 15-20 ft surge, the damage will be unimaginable. The thought is really upsetting as my two years in the Galveston Bay area have really made me grow fond of Galveston.

[AZRainman]

Seems ABC13 in Houston has gone off the air for the night. Does anyone know if there are other streaming news channels that are going all night?

Take your pick:
http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826& ... s&noad=yes

http://www.click2houston.com/video/10903347/index.html

http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sec ... id=6102015

[PTrackerLA]

Thanks for that Ed, I was starting to wonder about a few of these cells. Need to get to sleep soon, I'll be working tomorrow which should be really interesting in tropical storm conditions. I guess everyone figures we had hurricane conditions less than two weeks ago we can take it. Only problem was there was no one on the roads that day . Good luck to all in Ike's path and pray/hope for the best.

[jinftl]

Cat 4 or higher surge at landfall and to the right is very likely.

Matt,

Hope you are right on your idea that there is no way Ike can get his act together in 24 hours.

I'm just hoping that it doesn't pull an overnight stunt like it did in the Atlantic and ramp up to high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4 intensity. I still think that's possible.

And as for Cuba, I think it may have saved Texas' bacon from a strong Cat 4, but I'm not sure that a very large hurricane like Ike could make it to the Gulf Coast this year as a Cat 5.

IIRc, a Cat 5 has never hit Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anybody hear Dr. Neil Franks' thoughts on Ike?

I know he retired earlier this year, but I thought I had heard that he would help them out on hurricanes.

Would be curious to hear his thoughts, I have great respect for him.

He was on KHOU-TV 11 earlier w/ Dr. Norman, the new head met. He seemed mildy surprised Ike hadn't strengthened, maybe implied he didn't think it was likely to reach a high end Cat 3 anymore (on the 5 pm newcast) and showed a video from an insurance company that shows typical flood threat on Texas coast from various sized storms. I believe he answered a viewer e-mail from Clear Lake, saying he would indeed take an evacuation order there seriously.

[haml8]

Anybody hear Dr. Neil Franks' thoughts on Ike?

I know he retired earlier this year, but I thought I had heard that he would help them out on hurricanes.

Would be curious to hear his thoughts, I have great respect for him.

He is on CH11 KHOU now giving his perspective They are doing a call in show were you can call in and ask questions... anyone want to call in and do a shout out to all our peeps and brave pro mets staying up on the great S2K??

[Pebbles]

Seems ABC13 in Houston has gone off the air for the night. Does anyone know if there are other streaming news channels that are going all night?

KHOU 11

Perfect! Thanks!