ATL: IKE Discussion

[tailgater]

CDO getting bigger
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/sa ... ULF_ir.jpg

[Nexus]

G-11 04:30z

[iiroberts]

IDK if anybody has already mentioned this because this is the first time I heard (just now on the radio) but they're saying mandatory evacuations have been issued for Jasper, Newton and Tyler counties. Tyler county is pretty far inland, much further inland than Houston and all of Harris County and they're telling where the special needs (211) people can go.

If that is true it is probable because Jasper got hit hard from Rita. It is in the Piney woods. They had massive tree damage from winds.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bed time. I expect an 85 to 90 knot storm in the morning when I wake up. Pressure low 950s, high 940s.


Seems the trend, but I'm no expert.


Sleepy time.

[Senobia]

The surge will not be as catastrophic in some parts of Galveston as it will be for others. During the building of the sea wall, some places on the island were raised to 17ft. The highest elevation on the island is 20ft.

Just up the road from there on the peninsula, Sabine Pass has an elevation of 5ft....and is also expecting a 20ft surge.

[PTPatrick]

One important thing to note I think is that even if this were a cat1, most people who have even ben through cat 1,2 likely didnt experience those types of winds in more than gusts. I would venture to guess people will wake Saturday to to be VERY surpised at what ACTUAL sustained 75 mph that batter a city of 5 million people for HOURS, will really look like. This isnt going to be typical eyewall type "tornado width destruction"...In Ivan the eyewall destruction path was likey only 30 miles wide...this one will be MUCH larger. Also with the large size, things will start being weakened by the early TS force winds and rain well before the bad stuff gets there. And the Bad stuff will last a LONG time. I had trees in Katrina that I KNEW would go if I got even a few more gusts...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt,

Hope you are right on your idea that there is no way Ike can get his act together in 24 hours.

I'm just hoping that it doesn't pull an overnight stunt like it did in the Atlantic and ramp up to high end Cat 3/low end Cat 4 intensity. I still think that's possible.

And as for Cuba, I think it may have saved Texas' bacon from a strong Cat 4, but I'm not sure that a very large hurricane like Ike could make it to the Gulf Coast this year as a Cat 5.

IIRc, a Cat 5 has never hit Texas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Carla

Close,,,But I believe a cat5 is possible.

[PTPatrick]

just realized Ikes inner core is bigger than Charley's entire CDO

[Texas Snowman]

Sure, I believe a Cat 5 in Texas is possible too, and given the Texas' coastline sheer size, I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen one day during this active phase of Atlantic 'canes.

But I think such an occurence will come from a more compact storm like Camille rather than an Ike sized storm.

My unofficial .02 cents worth.

[jinftl]

After surge, Ike is likely to be remembered for power outages and tree loss. Saw this quote online....just someone's opinion (not my own words)..but sounds very reasonable if ike tracks as planned with even his current strength. For those who are out of surge danger but still in storm's path:

Preparation now has come down to either leaving or making sure all is in place to weather the storm. Just having a generator is not enough, is there enough gasoline to keep it going for weeks? Is there enough fresh water to last for up to a week? Is there enough food that does not need an oven to last for a week? Is there medicine and first aid supplies and TOILET PAPER to last for upwards of week or more? Is there CASH money around to get things? Is the cell phone charger in the car to keep it charged if there is no power?

I believe Ike could end up cutting power to as many as 6 or 7 million people for upwards of a month or more in a worst case scenario. I believe the city of Houston could end up being coated with an oily mess just like the areas impacted by Gustov were. I believe there is a distinct possibility the entire area could be basically shut down for weeks just like after Katrina. These things are not just some wild science fiction ideas, they are entirely possible and PROBABLE based on what appears to be happening with Ike. This could very well end up being the Houston Carla.

[lrak]

why is this thing not turning yet...I watch the satellite loop with the suggested track and the center looks way below the graphic and heading west.

Thanks.

[Texas Snowman]

I think that what Matt is saying is that despite the fact that a Cat 5 has never hit Texas, he thinks it is possible.

[BigA]

Wow. It's gusting to 60 in Buras right now, which is very far from the center, and even the rain shield.

[lrak]

Wow. It's gusting to 60 in Buras right now, which is very far from the center, and even the rain shield.

this thing is HUGE

[Stratosphere747]

[PTrackerLA]

Wow. It's gusting to 60 in Buras right now, which is very far from the center, and even the rain shield.

this thing is HUGE

There appears to be very little rain with the northern side of the system, yet still strong winds FAR from the center. Bizarre system, but fascinating to follow.

Satellite and radar just don't match up, look for yourself compared to that IR image above, there's nothing: http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes

[lrak]

anybody agree this thing is going a bit futher west than was forecasted?

[Texas Snowman]

That last sat shot is starting to look a little worrisome in terms of intensification prospects. Of course, that's what I thought 24 hours ago too.

Aside from the non-appearance of an eye in that photo, it is looking a little bit more like a classic and symmetrical GOM 'cane.

[btangy]

I don't know if this has been brought up, but the focus on Galveston may be too centric on the fact that Ike is forecasted to make landfall there. If this were Charley, I would see the case. But, this is not so with Ike. In fact, given the eye is so large right now, the 'best' scenario may be for this to go right over Galveston Bay instead of making landfall to the S. It's areas about 50-100 miles to the right of the track that are going to be absolutely pummeled, so the upper TX Gulf coast will likely fare much worse if Ike stays on track. But really, this is going to be a bad storm for many many people along the coast.

[haml8]

anybody agree this thing is going a bit futher west than was forecasted?

I agree that it is moving west, but it still can correct itself to stay on target...