ATL: IKE Discussion

[PTPatrick]

Really looked like dry air was trying to work its way out of the CDO in that last frame. And there wasnt any ahead. I think this is what the mets were saying might happen to allow strengthening. The dry air ahead would moisten up and the high to the west would stop limiting it. Out flow looks great to the NW now. I suspect rain bands on the north side will likely start to fill in the long range radar.

[USTropics]

Ike over the past 5-6 hours:

[Stormcenter]

anybody agree this thing is going a bit futher west than was forecasted?

Right now it definitely is moving more westward and quicker too. IMO
Let's wait and see what the big boys have to say in their next advisory.

[Texas Snowman]

Agreed, but given its westward movement tonight, I think a landfall near Freeport is more and more likely. And as that NAM model shot showed earlier, the wind direction is just bad, bad, bad, for not only Galveston Island, but also for the western shoreline of Galveston Bay.

And yes, Port A and Beaumont (and maybe even Lake Charles?) are in for a bad ride too and plenty of surge flooding.

[PTrackerLA]

anybody agree this thing is going a bit futher west than was forecasted?

Yeah the last few sat images showed that, but just how earlier it was jogging NW, it corrected itself. We'll see. I'm more perplexed by the structure of this storm. I have a feeling we're in for a surprise once it really comes into radar view tomorrow night. The center will likely be HUGE with very little else going on besides that.

[PTPatrick]

I agree about worrying about forecast points. I thought with Katrina MS would do ok because it wobbled west over Buras first. Katrina schooled me. She could have move right into new Orleans and never wobbled east into the MS/LA state line. I was splitting hairs, she didnt care. Surge in Mississippi was a done deal. That is the case if this comes anywhere south of the mouth of the mouth of the bay to around Bay City.


Katrina's area of 20+ surge extended basically about 80-90 miles...about Grand Isle to about MS/AL state line.. So lets suppose this hits Bay City...80 miles down the coast from Houston...and we could argue it likely wont hit south of Bay city. Even way down there, the surge entering Galveston bay could be 20+

[jinftl]

agree...areas up the coast from galveston into sw la are pretty much certain to be on right side up to 100 miles from eye...a landfall east of galveston would still bring massive power outages and surge to that area...but not as bad as worst case scenario landfall with ike

I don't know if this has been brought up, but the focus on Galveston may be too centric on the fact that Ike is forecasted to make landfall there. If this were Charley, I would see the case. But, this is not so with Ike. In fact, given the eye is so large right now, the 'best' scenario may be for this to go right over Galveston Bay instead of making landfall to the S. It's areas about 50-100 miles to the right of the track that are going to be absolutely pummeled, so the upper TX Gulf coast will likely fare much worse if Ike stays on track. But really, this is going to be a bad storm for many many people along the coast.

[lrak]

Corpus tv mets have just about said "enjoy the weekend and don't worry." I just don't like its circular shape, it needs to start showing signs of the trough.

[haml8]

when does the sattelite eclipse end?? Anyone Anyone??

[Nexus]

68kts (78mph) sustained winds at buoy 42361, which is 135nm (155 miles) WNW from the center of Ike. Cat 1 winds at that distance is pretty absurd. Last advisory pegged hurricane force winds "only" out to 115 miles.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

EDIT:

Fixed Drilling Platform with Anemometer at 122m above sea level, not a buoy at the normal 10m.

[Rod Hagen]

anybody agree this thing is going a bit futher west than was forecasted?

I've been saying that for some time, Irak. If you look back at the forecast points on the advisories over the last 12 hours it has been pretty consistently tracking to the south , and west of them. They've got the northern movement pretty right, but it has travelled faster westwards than anticipated, giving a track that would suggest landfall south of the projections. Mind you, yesterday it was exactly the reverse, and there is still a while to go before it hits the shore, so anything could happen in the mean time to balance things out again.

(Edit - As others have said, too, this things core seems so big that a "point" of landfall probably won't mean all that much anyway)

[Senobia]

Okay - I have a real problem I need some guidance on.

I'm in Beaumont, planning to evacuate 100mi to my north. As per the NWS, my forecast here includes:

Friday Night: Hurricane conditions expected. Showers East wind 50 to 60 mph increasing to between 45 and 65 mph. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%

The part in red is what I have a real issue with and my reason for wanting to evacuate. However, when I checked the forecast for the place I am GOING to, it included this:

Saturday: Windy, with a east wind 45 to 50 mph increasing to between 70 and 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph.

You mean I'm going to encounter worse conditions 100mi to the north of me while evacuating, than if I were to just stay home? Can this really be true?

[lrak]

anybody agree this thing is going a bit futher west than was forecasted?

I've been saying that for some time, Irak. If you look back at the forecast points on the advisories over the last 12 hours it has been pretty consistently tracking to the south , and west of them. They've got the northern movement pretty right, but it has travelled faster westwards than anticipated, giving a track that would suggest landfall south of the projections. Mind you, yesterday it was exactly the reverse, and there is still a while to go before it hits the shore, so anything could happen in the mean time to balance things out again.

(Edit - As others have said, too, this things core seems so big that a "point" of landfall probably won't mean all that much anyway)

Sorry to say, but I hate to read your post, it gives me butterflies.

[CronkPSU]

when does the sattelite eclipse end?? Anyone Anyone??

there are other sats

the navy one we posted earlier, accuweather and weather channel.com both have sats

the aviationweather one is the one i like

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

[Texas Snowman]

68kts (78mph) sustained winds at buoy 42361, which is 135nm (155 miles) WNW from the center of Ike. Cat 1 winds at that distance is pretty absurd. Last advisory pegged hurricane force winds "only" out to 115 miles.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

That is just nuts. In addition to the coast and Houston proper, there is going to be plenty of tree damage in SE Texas in places like Conroe, Huntsville, etc.

I know they've told people to hide from the wind and shelter where they are in such places, but having traveled in that forested area a lot, I can forsee a lot of trees smashing down on and around houses...and maybe a few unlucky fatalities.

[PTPatrick]

if that accurate....150 miles out equals Carla size...

[jinftl]

a slight west shift off of current track line would be very bad indeed

anybody agree this thing is going a bit futher west than was forecasted?

I've been saying that for some time, Irak. If you look back at the forecast points on the advisories over the last 12 hours it has been pretty consistently tracking to the south , and west of them. They've got the northern movement pretty right, but it has travelled faster westwards than anticipated, giving a track that would suggest landfall south of the projections. Mind you, yesterday it was exactly the reverse, and there is still a while to go before it hits the shore, so anything could happen in the mean time to balance things out again.

(Edit - As others have said, too, this things core seems so big that a "point" of landfall probably won't mean all that much anyway)

[AZRainman]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wind is measured at a height of 400 feet on Shell's Auger platform:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361
So winds are going to be higher there than at the surface.

[superfly]

68kts (78mph) sustained winds at buoy 42361, which is 135nm (155 miles) WNW from the center of Ike. Cat 1 winds at that distance is pretty absurd. Last advisory pegged hurricane force winds "only" out to 115 miles.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Anemometer height: 122 m above site elevation