ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS is further south -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

Landfall appears to be somewhere between Galveston Island and Matagorda Bay.

[HouTXmetro]

Interesting

[Stormcenter]

Interesting

Maybe the more westward motion we've seen the last 6 hours or so has something to
do with it.

[haml8]

this is what I was saying in the discussion thread.. it seems that the westward movement has been going for a while and that IKE may have missed his last forecast point.. but I will leave that to the pro mets to determine that fact... it would seem to me that the westward movement will be figured in and they might shift back to where they were this morning.. Someone mentioned that the trough was a little slower than anticipated too... this is all hearsay as far as I am concerned cause it didn't come from a pro met.. so hopefully they will chime in on these latest models and let us knowwhat they think..

[jimguru]

Can someone give me a link to the RAW Data for the GFDL that will be coming out for the 0z - the area I was getting it from ( NWS FTP ) stop posting it after the 12z.

Thanks in advance - Jim

[haml8]

Can someone give me a link to the RAW Data for the GFDL that will be coming out for the 0z - the area I was getting it from ( NWS FTP ) stop posting it after the 12z.

Thanks in advance - Jim

Same here. if anyone has it please post... it seems the model thread is not getting much love these days... ;(

[jimguru]

Can someone give me a link to the RAW Data for the GFDL that will be coming out for the 0z - the area I was getting it from ( NWS FTP ) stop posting it after the 12z.

Thanks in advance - Jim

Same here. if anyone has it please post... it seems the model thread is not getting much love these days... ;(

Haml8 : Try this site - lots of resources as well, I don't see the 0z data up yet though.....

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

[Duddy]

I'm in Bay City still. I stayed because the models kept trending north. If a trend starts back over us again we have to leave at 5AM!

[Senobia]

People following the shifts in these models need not get too excited. Based on the size of the storm, a jog here and there is not going to make a difference. The windfield is too big and the surge is already on its way.

This info was verified and reinerated many times at 10pm tonight by a local met here in SE Texas.

[jimguru]

People following the shifts in these models need not get too excited. Based on the size of the storm, a jog here and there is not going to make a difference. The windfield is too big and the surge is already on its way.

This info was verified and reinerated many times at 10pm tonight by a local met here in SE Texas.

I agree with you - I have just recently started getting into the modeling of these storms - so like to run the data through this little program of mine. Again - I agree 100% with what you are saying ; he (IKE) is a large ( area wise ) storm his effects will be felt in a huge area.

All of you be safe - Jim

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Im a little worried that this is the only area of falling pressure in the GOM and that the models are slowly pulling Ike back down the coast where the computers originally had it. Its a perfect circle and just from watching hurricanes that are nice and circular like Ike, they usually travel west while in that shape.

[jimguru]

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 120529
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE       09L
INITIAL TIME   0Z SEP 12
DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)
   0            26.1             89.9           290./ 9.9
   6            26.4             91.2           281./11.7
  12            26.7             92.0           293./ 7.3
  18            27.1             92.9           295./ 9.0
  24            28.1             93.7           319./11.9
  30            29.0             94.8           309./13.3
  36            30.1             95.5           329./12.4
  42            31.4             95.9           340./13.8
  48            32.9             95.9             2./14.7
  54            34.4             95.4            19./16.1
  60            36.4             93.9            36./23.5
  66            38.6             91.2            52./30.3
  72            40.9             87.8            55./34.6
  78            43.2             84.2            57./35.9
  84            45.0             80.7            64./30.5
  90            46.3             76.4            73./32.7
  96            47.5             72.4            73./29.6
 102            48.7             68.9            72./26.4
 108            49.8             65.4            73./25.4
 114            50.8             62.2            72./22.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 114 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[artist]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Im a little worried that this is the only area of falling pressure in the GOM and that the models are slowly pulling Ike back down the coast where the computers originally had it. Its a perfect circle and just from watching hurricanes that are nice and circular like Ike, they usually travel west while in that shape.

it could be that station also needs to be calibrated, you never know or it could have even gone adrift.

[Serenity]

click on for larger

[Extremeweatherguy]

NHC is currently on the right edge of the model envelope. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight shift west at 11am.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

[Portastorm]

NHC is currently on the right edge of the model envelope. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight shift west at 11am.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

Yep, EWG. I totally agree and posted similar thoughts earlier this morning. I expect the track to be nudged a little further west at 11a. For those of us inland, these little nudges may have significant implications, especially those of us on the west side of the storm center.

[PTPatrick]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad


Hurr Hunters only finding cat1, so far...they may find more soon, but it looks like they penetrated the heaviest bands and only got 85 mph

[Extremeweatherguy]

NHC is currently on the right edge of the model envelope. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight shift west at 11am.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

Yep, EWG. I totally agree and posted similar thoughts earlier this morning. I expect the track to be nudged a little further west at 11a. For those of us inland, these little nudges may have significant implications, especially those of us on the west side of the storm center.

Yeah, it certainly will. Even up here in Oklahoma I am watching this closely. The storm is still forecast to be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the state, so the closer it gets to me, the worse. Right now we are only expecting a glancing blow here in OKC, but if the track continues to shift further west, then our flooding potential could go sky high. It will be a very interesting 24-36 hours watching this all unfold.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_hd.html#a_topad


Hurr Hunters only finding cat1, so far...they may find more soon, but it looks like they penetrated the heaviest bands and only got 85 mph

They are now finding 108 knot FL winds.

[dwg71]

I saw the 108, probably 80-85 at the surface. The surface estimates and flight level readings have been huge in difference.