ATL: IKE Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3397
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm

Re: Re:

#10461 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:19 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:OK, CNN mentioned that it could strenghten, but what makes you think so ?


Not only CNN but the NHC thinks it will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall and it will have to intensify if it wants to go from 105 mph to at least 111 mph. Furthermore, satellite images show very cold clouds around the center. I think the main inhibitor at this point is Ike itself, it's too big for its own good.


Right. Makes sense. And you mean cold clouds can serve as engine ?
0 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5078
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

#10462 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:19 am

Platform is about 48 miles from the 7AM CDT center position.
0 likes   

superfly

#10463 Postby superfly » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:20 am

I have my doubts about the calibration on that oil platform anemometer. AF dropsonde 19 miles to its WNW only reported surface winds of 57 kts at roughly the same time (8 minutes difference).
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#10464 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:20 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10465 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:20 am

drezee wrote:BUOY 42361 1145 27.55 -92.49
Wind Speed (WSPD): 108.8 kts = 125.5552


Got to admit thats really impressive winds, 109kts, whilst at 400ft, is still very impressive!
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: IKE / Obs / Preparations / Web Cams / Texas / SW Louisiana

#10466 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:20 am

Hurricane Warning

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

.AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT
280 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BEAUMONT TEXAS AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
TODAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
105 MPH... 165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
THE COAST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF
UP TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF
BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


LAZ051-TXZ215-121700-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND PARISHES OR MARINE AREAS:

CAMERON...JEFFERSON.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR CAMERON PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED.

FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

CAMERON:

STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY RAPIDLY INTO
TONIGHT...CRESTING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BATTERING WAVES ATOP THE HIGH WATER WILL
CAUSE FURTHER DAMAGE. MOST OF CAMERON PARISH WILL BE INUNDATED.

THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW. THESE WATER LEVELS WILL
BE COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE RITA. LA 82 AND LA 27 WILL BE UNDER
WATER. AS MUCH AS EIGHT TO TEN FEET OF WATER WILL COVER THE
STREETS IN DOWNTOWN CAMERON.

LOW LYING AREAS OF GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
FLOODING. SOME ROADS COULD SEE 6 TO 7 FEET OF WATER OVER THEM.

JEFFERSON:
STORM SURGE WILL INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY BY NOON TODAY... CRESTING
TO AROUND 20 TO 25 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. BATTERING WAVES ATOP THE
HIGH WATER WILL CAUSE FURTHER DAMAGE.

THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW.

AT THESE WATER LEVELS...THE SEAWALL IN PORT ARTHUR WILL BE
OVERTOPPED...BY ABOUT 6 FEET...CAUSING EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF THE
CITY OF PORT ARTHUR.

MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 73 BETWEEN PORT ARTHUR AND WINNIE
WILL HAVE STORM SURGE FLOODING. FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG
HILLEBRANDT AND TAYLOR BAYOUS BETWEEN FANNETT AND LA BELLE.

ALL ROADS IN SABINE PASS WILL BE FLOODED. HIGHWAY 73/87 BETWEEN
PORT ARTHUR AND BRIDGE CITY WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL.

LIFE THREATENING FLOOD INUNDATION IS LIKELY! ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...
AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED
DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES MAY FACE
CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON
THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL
LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE
WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A
MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK
BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

...WINDS...

CAMERON:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH
WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING...INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH WILL
BEGIN BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY NOON.

JEFFERSON:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65
MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY...INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE DECREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 35 TO 45
PERCENT.
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 90 TO
100 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. AS IS THE CASE DURING ANY TROPICAL
SYSTEM...ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS WILL SEE FLASH
FLOODING.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER NECHES RIVER UP
THROUGH BEAUMONT DUE TO THE STORM SURGE.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 8 AM THIS MORNING.

$$



Oh my. :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10467 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:22 am

drezee wrote:BUOY 42361 1145 27.55 -92.49
Wind Speed (WSPD): 108.8 kts = 125.5552


One caveat: The anemometer height at that station is 122 meters, so the surface wind will be substantially lower.

Station location:

27.550 N 92.490 W (27°33'0" N 92°29'24" W)
0 likes   

PhillyWX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:54 am
Location: Philly
Contact:

Re:

#10468 Postby PhillyWX » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:22 am

superfly wrote:I have my doubts about the calibration on that oil platform anemometer. AF dropsonde 19 miles to its WNW only reported surface winds of 57 kts at roughly the same time (8 minutes difference).


It being about 450 ft up makes some difference. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some exaggeration in the wind speed but I wouldn't completely discount it.

Elevation does make a bit of difference, especially since stronger winds with Ike haven't mixed to the surface very well.
0 likes   

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10469 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:24 am

as I said last night...there are at least 20 buildings in dowtown houston above 500 ft. So if this eastern eyewall goes over them with 125 mph at the top, I suspect there will be some glass flying...although I imagine at that height they might be rated for much higher winds.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Windtalker1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 523
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Mesa, Arizona

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10470 Postby Windtalker1 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:25 am

Is that the eye clearing out and the cold cloud tops trying to wrap around it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html
0 likes   

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10471 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:27 am

think that is more of a pockt of dry air than the eye....the center is on the bottom half of the clear area underneath deep reds.


PS that Feeder band on the East side has got to be generating some serious wind and waves, its almost totally grey on IR
Last edited by PTPatrick on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#10472 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:28 am

Image in the Galveston webcam shows the tide already a third of the way up the seawall which will only increase given the hurricane is getting closer and the high tide in about 4-5hrs.
0 likes   

User avatar
AZRainman
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:48 pm
Location: Sonoran Desert
Contact:

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10473 Postby AZRainman » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:30 am

southerngale wrote:Thanks for the links, azrainman. Hopefully, it won't be as bad as predicted... very scary to think about it.


I hope not and everyone on the coast decided to get inland :)

Reminds me of TS Allison in 2001:
Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
funster
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 817
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2007 4:27 pm
Location: North Dallas

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10474 Postby funster » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:31 am

PTPatrick wrote:think that is more of a pockt of dry air than the eye....the center is on the bottom half of the clear area underneath deep reds.


PS that Feeder band on the East side has got to be generating some serious wind and waves, its almost totally grey on IR


That intense convection is concerning.
0 likes   

User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10475 Postby StJoe » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:32 am

PTPatrick wrote:think that is more of a pockt of dry air than the eye....the center is on the bottom half of the clear area underneath deep reds.


PS that Feeder band on the East side has got to be generating some serious wind and waves, its almost totally grey on IR


Not for nothing, but you don't really see the "grey" matter that much...pretty freaky actually!
0 likes   

apocalypt-flyer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 468
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:51 am

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10476 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:34 am

Windtalker1 wrote:Is that the eye clearing out and the cold cloud tops trying to wrap around it?



That's really been the issue of the past day or two, isn't it? :lol:

Mabye one of the promets has a better idea.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#10477 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:34 am

Winds already picking up just offshore from Galveston, about 40mph gusts now out there and as soon as the sustained winds start to increase to that sort of level the surge will start to really increase.
0 likes   

physicx07
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 215
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 7:46 am
Location: Miami

Re:

#10478 Postby physicx07 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:35 am

KWT wrote:Image in the Galveston webcam shows the tide already a third of the way up the seawall which will only increase given the hurricane is getting closer and the high tide in about 4-5hrs.


Can you give us a link for that webcam KWT?
0 likes   

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10479 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:36 am

I regards to what the dry air on the west side will do to Ike...I can only say that while moisture was an issue on the west side of both storms...both Ivan and Frederic managed to mix down some serious wind and damage on the western eyewall. My parents who lived essentially at the alabama state line for Fred where it came in, say it was the worst wind damage pascagoula has had in thier lifetimes, which include Camile, Elena, George, and now Katrina. So while going slight east of houston may help some, certainly not going to spare them at this point.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#10480 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:38 am

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests