ATL INVEST 91L: Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[lonelymike]

Be nice if this had some model support besides the NAM Pro mets don't seem to concerned about it either. Until they worry then I worry. Until then sounds like a gatorcane special.

[ronjon]

What's going to hold 91L in check for the time being is an ULL just to its west just north of Hispanola. The outflow from Ike is far to the west (northerly shear) over eastern Cuba which isn't affecting 91L at all. Most of the models keep it weak - perhaps due to the proximity of the ULL. Trackwise, high pressure aloft will be building to the north of 91L from the western Atlantic to north FL - this will get steered W-NW and then W south the ridge. It will end up over the straits or the FL peninsula and likely cross into the eastern GOM either as a wave or a tropical cyclone.

[DeanDaDream]

Be nice if this had some model support besides the NAM Pro mets don't seem to concerned about it either. Until they worry then I worry. Until then sounds like a gatorcane special.

More models are picking up on it.
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/91-googlemaps.shtml

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2008

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on large
Hurricane Ike...located about 370 miles southeast of Galveston
Texas.

An area of disturbed weather...including some of the remnants of
Tropical Storm Josephine...is located about 350 miles east of
the southeastern Bahamas. Development of this system...if any...will
be slow to occur as it moves slowly west-northwestward over the
next couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Blake

[captain east]

Be nice if this had some model support besides the NAM Pro mets don't seem to concerned about it either. Until they worry then I worry. Until then sounds like a gatorcane special.

More models are picking up on it.
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/91-googlemaps.shtml

I would say central/north FL would be in the middle of the cone right now since a few take it to the straights, a couple to the north, and a good amount of them to SFL/ Central FL.

First it has to develop though.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical disturbance 91L north of Puerto Rico
An area of disturbed weather (91L) has developed a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite loops show that 91L has a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but does have a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. A surface circulation is not apparent, but the mid-level spin could work its way down to the surface over the next day or two. The disturbance in under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Saturday, then increase to 25 knots. We may expect some slow development until Saturday, when wind shear should be too high to allow further development. None of the models are developing 91L. By Tuesday, as 91L will be approaching the east coast of Florida, shear is expected to decline to 15 knots, and some additional development may be possible, if the disturbance holds together that long.

I'll have an update tonight if there's a significant change in Ike.

Jeff Masters

[fci]

Again, something to watch and not yet be concerned about.

[HURAKAN]

11/2345 UTC 22.5N 66.1W TOO WEAK 91L

[tina25]

Cantore just made a reference to Katrina in regards to 91L.

[Sihara]

Cantore just made a reference to Katrina in regards to 91L.

I didn't hear it although I've got twc on. Perhaps he was referring to how Katrina started out as TD10 which dissipated then was reborn as TD12, with an argument ensuing whether it should still be called 10 or renumbered as 12 - and went on to become Katrina, IIRC. So here we have Josephine dissipating into remnant low, and then showing (slight) signs of regenerating, but if so, will come back as Kyle. Although others think it should still be Josephine.


Edited to add: Thanks for re-posting the bears, jlauderdal. That photo is classic

[cycloneye]

A little more convection.

[CrazyC83]

Cantore just made a reference to Katrina in regards to 91L.

I didn't hear it although I've got twc on. Perhaps he was referring to how Katrina started out as TD10 which dissipated then was reborn as TD12, with an argument ensuing whether it should still be called 10 or renumbered as 12 - and went on to become Katrina, IIRC. So here we have Josephine dissipating into remnant low, and then showing (slight) signs of regenerating, but if so, will come back as Kyle. Although others think it should still be Josephine.


Edited to add: Thanks for re-posting the bears, jlauderdal. That photo is classic

Same place, and same letter...hopefully not the same results (or anything even remotely close to such).

[bob rulz]

This thing needs a MASSIVE shot of convection to get going.

Let's see if DMAX will be kind to it.

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRYING ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES BY SATURDAY...AND THIS DRY AIR UPSTREAM OVER THE BAHAMAS IS
CLEARLY SEEN IN MIMIC-TPW MOVING IMAGERY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION/GULF COAST.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
(PARTLY THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWESTWARD. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS
DEVELOPING...AND NEITHER IS NHC. GFS SHOWS THIS FORMING INTO JUST
A VERY WEAK LOW MOVING UP THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (NAM IS SIMILAR). ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH. GFDL DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS. THIS FEATURE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW AND SHEAR MAY INCREASE LATER THIS
WEEKEND OVER OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW KEPT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
THIS FCST CYCLE ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOCUSED
ATLANTIC COAST.

[stayawaynow]

None of the local mets seem concerned. Only one mentioned it this morning as a posible rain maker.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 121205
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON LARGE
HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[boca]

Their is more convection with 91L this morning.The only prohibiting facor is the ULL just to its west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[BocaGirl]

You know Floridians should start worrying about this invest 91 now because as Ike moves away this could form into something.So Florida dont get so happy that Ike missed us and went to Cuba cause maybe invest 91l will take that job Ike was suppose to do to Fl.OMG storms jusst keep on coming one after the next.Not one quiet week lol.

well should 91L develop into Kyle and threaten Florida, I would think residents would be in utter shock. I mean how many can Florida dodge this season without taking a hit at some point (Fay did hit SW Florida directly and caused major flooding to central Florida albeit it didn't come with the destructive winds) and was it just not last weekend that Southern Florida residents were doing what they could to get CAT 4 Ike's track shifted well south?
Still lots of IFs with this invest at this point....all the attention is on Ike as it should be, but should this invest develop into something more as it has a chance to, attention will quickly shift back to this

Quick, somebody tell me...what can I do to get a Cat 4's track shifted South? Or any storm, for that matter. I didn't think Southern Florida residents had that kind of power!

Seriously, in my opinion 91L looks like it might bring us a rainy day and maybe some windy conditions. Par for the course, this time of year.

All Disclaimers apply.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[jlauderdal]

Cantore just made a reference to Katrina in regards to 91L.

I didn't hear it although I've got twc on. Perhaps he was referring to how Katrina started out as TD10 which dissipated then was reborn as TD12, with an argument ensuing whether it should still be called 10 or renumbered as 12 - and went on to become Katrina, IIRC. So here we have Josephine dissipating into remnant low, and then showing (slight) signs of regenerating, but if so, will come back as Kyle. Although others think it should still be Josephine.


Edited to add: Thanks for re-posting the bears, jlauderdal. That photo is classic

i borrowed the polar bear idea from previous posts. I have a few other polar bears ready to go if the situation calls for it.