ATL: IKE Discussion

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KWT
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#10481 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:40 am

physicx07, that was on a live feed I'm watching.

IR still showing some very deep convection however its dmax now so thats to be somewhat expected.

From what I'm hearing and seeing waves already splashing onto the road on the seawall.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10482 Postby lrak » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:41 am

The hurricane service said NW movement will commence this afternoon, wasn't that suppose to happen last night?

I guess I'm nervous this looks like its goinging in a little futher south than expected, my opinion is only from watching satellite this morning. The WHOLE thing is still moving in my general direction and hasn't turned, why? I mean its still below 27 latitude this morning.

thanks
Last edited by lrak on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10483 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:43 am

Be prepared for rough weather but I would be shocked to see the NHC's landfall point and track to be that far off what's going to happen at this short time before the landfall.
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#10484 Postby HarlequinBoy » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:44 am

Hmm, this storm is a bit weird.

That surge map is freaky!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10485 Postby lrak » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:45 am

apocalypt-flyer wrote:Be prepared for rough weather but I would be shocked to see the NHC's landfall point and track to be that far off what's going to happen at this short time before the landfall.


I trust them, it just looks like a Rita for me, CC Tx watch that monster stop and do a right turn 200 miles just east of us. I suppose thats whats going to happen, just need to wait.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10486 Postby physicx07 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:45 am

lrak wrote:The hurricane service said NW movement will commence this afternoon, wasn't that suppose to happen last night?

I guess I'm nervous this looks like its goinging in a little futher south than expected, my opinion is only from watching satellite this morning. The WHOLE thing is still moving in my general direction and hasn't turned, why? I mean its still below 27 latitude this morning.

thanks


I had noticed a few hours ago that Ike was almost exactly SE of Galveston. So the storm would need to average a 315 track to hit where the current track shows. But GFDL from 00Z is showing overall average motion of 290-300 for the next 30 hrs, so....
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10487 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:46 am

We may just see that convection wrap a little more aroun that pocket of dryness and Ike could have himself a huge eye ala wilma...BUT I doubt it will happen....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html
Last edited by PTPatrick on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10488 Postby weunice » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:50 am

physicx07 wrote:I had noticed a few hours ago that Ike was almost exactly SE of Galveston. So the storm would need to average a 315 track to hit where the current track shows. But GFDL from 00Z is showing overall average motion of 290-300 for the next 30 hrs, so....
Looks to me like the storm is supposed to enter Galveston from the SSE if not closer to due south so for some of that time it is going to be coming in at greater than 315. I suspect it will turn. Its just a matter of when. Still floored at the winds we got earlier ...
Last edited by weunice on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10489 Postby alan1961 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:50 am

I like this feature..Ike zoomed on the floaters.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10490 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:50 am

PTPatrick wrote:We may just see that convection wrap a little more aroun that pocket of dryness and Ike could have himself a huge eye ala wilma
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html


this is the closest I have seen it to wrapping up an eye in quite some time

Image

and the loop (doesn't want to post as a loop so I will give the link)

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir
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Re: IKE / Obs / Preparations / Web Cams / Texas / SW Louisiana

#10491 Postby therock1811 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:51 am

dizzyfish wrote:I heard on the TV this morning that they have told residents in Houston to shelter in place and not evacuate. Can this be correct???


Areas within zones further from Galveston Bay are being told NOT to evacuate.
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#10492 Postby RainWind » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:52 am

Baton Rouge experienced a feeder band about an hour ago that knocked out power to areas that just had power recently turned back on from Gustav. Lots of low-lying places already flooding and limbs are beginning to fall. We won't get that much from Ike, however, it is just making things a little miserable. I am praying for those in SE TX and SW LA that they make it through the storm ok! RW
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10493 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:52 am

Does it not appear that outflow is still not too bad to the northwest despite the lack of convection?
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#10494 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:52 am

Is Ike finally going to see?! :eek: A thick semicircle of red is wrapping around the center. Looks like Ike is trying one more time to get it right.

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10495 Postby Rod Hagen » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:52 am

lrak wrote:The hurricane service said NW movement will commence this afternoon, wasn't that suppose to happen last night?

I guess I'm nervous this looks like its goinging in a little futher south than expected, my opinion is only from watching satellite this morning. The WHOLE thing is still moving in my general direction and hasn't turned, why? I mean its still below 27 latitude this morning.

thanks



I've been watching its track pretty carefully for most of the day, Irak.

Looking at the latest visual in the loop at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html I reckon it is actually closer to forecast track than I have seen it all day (or rather, all night, your time).

Cheers

Rod
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10496 Postby weunice » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:53 am

alan1961 wrote:I like this feature..Ike zoomed on the floaters.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg
HA I didn't even know there was a third floater. I kept looking on ONE and TWO and wondering why they were not on Ike. Are there more than three? (Apparently there are four, at least that you can access from the GOES site)
Last edited by weunice on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10497 Postby Aristotle » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:53 am

Its amazing.. You can actually see the remnants of the 3 different eyes trying to come together and get it going. Of course I don't think it can. 3 partial eye walls don't work.
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#10498 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:54 am

Ike does seem be trying to wrap itself round but we've seen Ike try that a few times already. The thing I wonder about is whether Ike will get help from the friction of land?
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#10499 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:57 am

Image

Image

Ike's size: From Charley to Katrina!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10500 Postby lrak » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:58 am

Rod Hagen wrote:
lrak wrote:The hurricane service said NW movement will commence this afternoon, wasn't that suppose to happen last night?

I guess I'm nervous this looks like its goinging in a little futher south than expected, my opinion is only from watching satellite this morning. The WHOLE thing is still moving in my general direction and hasn't turned, why? I mean its still below 27 latitude this morning.

thanks



I've been watching its track pretty carefully for most of the day, Irak.

Looking at the latest visual in the loop at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html I reckon it is actually closer to forecast track than I have seen it all day (or rather, all night, your time).

Cheers

Rod



thanks for the clarification, I remember we were seeing the same thing last night. I feel better now.

get some sleep LOL
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