ATL: IKE Discussion

[shah8]

Ike on ir is an amorphous and malignant blob that has defied chemo of dry air from the high out west...

[PTPatrick]

I guess I just dont understand how a barrier island could be built up 20 ft high and not have storms, nature wear that down over the years.

[tolakram]

[TSmith274]

Anyone who is in SE La right now will tell you that Ike's surge is the real deal folks.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Ok, the rather clear eye definately seems to be on hands before landfall.

[wxman57]

Any of you in Port Arthur/Beaumont/Sabine better get out fast. Ike's strongest winds will move ashore about 80-90 miles east of Houston this evening. This could mean a surge of 15-20 feet across Port Arthur to Cameron. Highest surge you've seen there in many, many years. Higher than Rita in Cameron, possibly.

See the latest HRD wind field analysis:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

[MaryEllen71]

my thoughts and prayers go out to everyone in the area. I have a horrible feeling that the death toll is going to be horrific.

[ftolmsteen]

When the west coast of Florida experiences water pushing over seawalls and roads from a hurricane that's on the other side of the gulf should pretty much tell anyone still on the La/Tx coast to GTFO of its way.

[SunnyThoughts]

Live steaming coverage from the galveston/houston area http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826& ... s&noad=yes One of the reporters close to the seawall says he talked to homeland security in the area a few minutes ago...and they expect the entire island to be underwater before all is said and done.

[VeniceInlet]

Awesome. Thanks for the link. If water is coming over RIGHT NOW... I'd hate to see what is in store for landfall.

KHOU is saying that only the waves and debris are coming over, not that the surge has gotten that high yet to top the wall.

Also, apparently water is coming up through storm sewers in The Strand, which is now starting to flood. I'm amazed to see how many cars are still driving around.

Another thing: the TV weather person's assessment of surge is quite different from the SLOSH map, by about half. That was more than a little disturbing.

[O Town]

Looks a llittle lopsided this morning but lots of cold cloud tops surrounding the center. Ike may clear his eye after all.

[MaryEllen71]

Any of you in Port Arthur/Beaumont/Sabine better get out fast. Ike's strongest winds will move ashore about 80-90 miles east of Houston this evening. This could mean a surge of 15-20 feet across Port Arthur to Cameron. Highest surge you've seen there in many, many years. Higher than Rita in Cameron, possibly.

See the latest HRD wind field analysis:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

would that mean an Audrey level surge?

[carversteve]

http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html
8 different web cams!

[apocalypt-flyer]

my thoughts and prayers go out to everyone in the area. I have a horrible feeling that the death toll is going to be horrific.

Yes, I'm really afraid that not enough people got out of the way because 'it isn't even a major hurricane in the gulf'.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Any of you in Port Arthur/Beaumont/Sabine better get out fast. Ike's strongest winds will move ashore about 80-90 miles east of Houston this evening. This could mean a surge of 15-20 feet across Port Arthur to Cameron. Highest surge you've seen there in many, many years. Higher than Rita in Cameron, possibly.

See the latest HRD wind field analysis:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

Yep slosh model showing something similar, the worst place being Jefferson with an estimated 25-30ft storm surge there...

Anyone in the coast in a good portion of Texas and also western LA need to get the heck out of there because the TS force winds probably aren't that far away.

As for the waves breaching the seawall...yeah, landfall if Ike is still just inder 18hrs away and before high tide, if thats happening now, then doesn't take much brains to know that this is going to be a mammoth deal and they will get flooded, probably badly...

[Sabanic]

I heard that there were mobile homes somewhere on Galveston. Is this true? I also heard that there were people that were going to ride it out. That's unbelievable!

Geez I hope everyone gets off of that island. Praying for everyone in Ike's path. All they needed to see was the MGC after Katrina. It wiped out everything. Homes buildings, anything in it's path.

[PTPatrick]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

So far this latest pass isnt turning up much above 85 mph. Perhaps they missed the worst convection. or the strongest winds are further out?

[MaryEllen71]

my thoughts and prayers go out to everyone in the area. I have a horrible feeling that the death toll is going to be horrific.

Yes, I'm really afraid that not enough people got out of the way because 'it isn't even a major hurricane in the gulf'.

Especially the article I read on yahoo about the party in the poop deck bar in Galveston...those people were not taking it seriously and they made fun of a couple who chose to leave.

[BocaGirl]

I am not believing the reporters are on the seawall...

Also...looks like people are cruising the seawall road. Lots of cars moving on the interstates too. I am surprised people are not getting hunkered down, as opposed to lollygagging around town. Hopefully all these cars I am seeing on interstates on TV are people finishing last minute shopping for supplies.

I fully expect to see reporters from all the major networks somewhere in Galveston tonight and tomorrow. Ratings are everything.

As for folks being out and about...the worst time is the period before the storm hits. Either you've made all your preparations, your windows are shuttered or boarded up (it's like living in a tuna can) and you're ready for it but it's not ready for you yet OR you simply won't allow yourself to believe the storm is really coming. You're thinking that maybe the storm will go poof, veer to the left or right or hey, maybe the NHC was flat out wrong.

I know because we've lived through those scenarios!

Folks will head indoors fast as the weather deteriorates. This is the calm before the storm...

BocaGirl
Barbara