ATL: IKE Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Intense White Convection Developing around eye

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

And what could this mean??

signs of intensification

[fci]

It would be if you think this is a Cat 1...an upgrade to a 3 would seem huge!

I don't think that 10 mph stronger or weaker is relevant since this looks to be mostly a water (surge) event.

There is
still a chance that it could become a major hurricane before
landfall...but basically this is irrelevant since we are only
talking about a 10-knot increase.

Read the NHC discussion again.
It is exactly what they say.
Don't get hung on the "labels" of Cat 3 or Cat 2 and presume that when a storm goes from one cat to another that sudden changes occur. Yes, winds will make some difference but the story here is the surge.

[rtd2]

Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

From Harris county emergency management.(Jeff Lindner)

We are now seeing 2-4 feet of surge even into the bay areas and the W end of Galveston Island is all but impassable except for really high ligt vehicles. Surge is also coming into the East end of the Island near UTMB. 61st street in Galveston under water in places as well as the Kemah Boardwalk on Galveston bay. Unfortunately this is not the "real" surge, just the beginnings.

125 mph at what elevation?

NOTHING in recon showing this ? maybe a gust?

[vbhoutex]

Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

From Harris county emergency management.(Jeff Lindner)

We are now seeing 2-4 feet of surge even into the bay areas and the W end of Galveston Island is all but impassable except for really high ligt vehicles. Surge is also coming into the East end of the Island near UTMB. 61st street in Galveston under water in places as well as the Kemah Boardwalk on Galveston bay. Unfortunately this is not the "real" surge, just the beginnings.

125 mph at what elevation?

Whatever elevation the bouy is at. Since it is, I believe, a NBDC bouy I would presume 10M which is what they are all set at I believe. All that info is available on NDBC website

[southerngale]

From a little over an hour ago. It's hard to fathom what could be happening here.

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
933 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...

NECHES RIVER NEAR BEAUMONT

TXC245-130433-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FL.W.0062.080912T1433Z-080917T1200Z/
/BEAT2.3.FS.080912T1409Z.080913T0600Z.080916T1200Z.NR/
933 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE NECHES RIVER NEAR BEAUMONT.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.7 FEET.
* RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...DUE TO THE STORM SURGE EXPECTED WITH HURRICANCE IKE
...THE NECHES RIVER AT BEAUMONT IS FORECAST TO RESPOND AND
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO RISE TO NEAR 15.0 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER
WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...RIVER IS NEAR FLOOD OF RECORD WHICH
OCCURRED OCTOBER 1994. WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
NUMEROUS HOMES IN NORTHEAST BEAUMONT AND ROSE CITY ARE FLOODED.

[storm4u]

Goodluck to everyone in Ike's path.

[apocalypt-flyer]

I was referencing a post...not yours at all.. that stated we are not really seeing a cat 2...the nhc has held it that high artificially

Well, they'd be stupid not to. Sure, from a science point of view it's not 'correct' but what do you think how the public would react if they said Cat 1 but with a KILLER SURGE.

People would read Cat 1 and think it won't be worse than say Humberto (which was BAD ENOUGH).

[HouTXmetro]

I just saw the Regional satellite loop. Convection in Trough over West Texas and Plains appears to be weakening and slighty retreating... Maybe a more Western Path for Ike? Just an obervation.

[vbhoutex]

Now that landfall location is starting to become more clear....i would be curious to know the surge differences for the area that would result in say: 1) landfall 20 miles west of galveston bay, 2) landfall over galveston bay, and 3) landfall 20 miles east of galveston bay. Would it be significant enough to make a difference?

Anything East of Galveston Bay would result in much lower surge in that area even though it would still be a major problem. We already have communities along the bayfront taking on water.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Still, I hope all our Texas and Louisiana members stay safe and get out of this as alright as possible.

[dhweather]

Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

From Harris county emergency management.(Jeff Lindner)

We are now seeing 2-4 feet of surge even into the bay areas and the W end of Galveston Island is all but impassable except for really high ligt vehicles. Surge is also coming into the East end of the Island near UTMB. 61st street in Galveston under water in places as well as the Kemah Boardwalk on Galveston bay. Unfortunately this is not the "real" surge, just the beginnings.

125 mph at what elevation?

Air temp height: 37 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 122 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: 37 m above mean sea level
Water depth: 872 m

[rtd2]

I was referencing a post...not yours at all.. that stated we are not really seeing a cat 2...the nhc has held it that high artificially

Well, they'd be stupid not to. Sure, from a science point of view it's not 'correct' but what do you think how the public would react if they said Cat 1 but with a KILLER SURGE.

People would read Cat 1 and think it won't be worse than say Humberto (which was BAD ENOUGH).

exactly..thats why I have a problem with the current scale

[curtadams]

People are already getting trapped. Channel 11 in Houston had a phone interview with a woman in Crystal Beach (on a barrier island in front of Galveston bay but not on Galveston island itself). She waited until this morning to get out - and now she can't, or at least thinks she can't. The bridges are flooding. It was a strange interview - she was kind of in denial about the danger she was in, but she seemed to know she was in denial. I dunno, maybe that's a good attitude if you're really trapped although if I were in her situation I'd be moving heaven and earth to get out.

If you're on Crystal Beach, or any similar place, and read this please don't give up on getting out yet. Keep trying, talk to other people, keep looking. Almost any structure at or near the beach is a deathtrap with these kinds of surge projections.

[hiflyer]

Anyone know if there are plans to close the Galveston Causeway due to surge, wave height. and wind?

[Nexus]

May not be a traditional eye, but this eye-like feature has been persisting for several hours now. And yes, the tower popping on the SE side is the coldest top we've seen in the gulf so far with Ike (14:45z):

[thetruesms]

Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

From Harris county emergency management.(Jeff Lindner)

We are now seeing 2-4 feet of surge even into the bay areas and the W end of Galveston Island is all but impassable except for really high ligt vehicles. Surge is also coming into the East end of the Island near UTMB. 61st street in Galveston under water in places as well as the Kemah Boardwalk on Galveston bay. Unfortunately this is not the "real" surge, just the beginnings.

125 mph at what elevation?

Whatever elevation the bouy is at. Since it is, I believe, a NBDC bouy I would presume 10M which is what they are all set at I believe. All that info is available on NDBC website

Is this the station you're referring to? http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

If so, it's at 122 m

edit - dang, too slow

[CrazyC83]

125 mph at what elevation?

Whatever elevation the bouy is at. Since it is, I believe, a NBDC bouy I would presume 10M which is what they are all set at I believe. All that info is available on NDBC website

Is this the station you're referring to? http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

If so, it's at 122 m

edit - dang, too slow

Based on Recon experience with low-level flights, that would be a 90% conversion factor to the surface, so that translates to about 110 mph (95 kt).

[AJC3]

Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

From Harris county emergency management.(Jeff Lindner)

We are now seeing 2-4 feet of surge even into the bay areas and the W end of Galveston Island is all but impassable except for really high ligt vehicles. Surge is also coming into the East end of the Island near UTMB. 61st street in Galveston under water in places as well as the Kemah Boardwalk on Galveston bay. Unfortunately this is not the "real" surge, just the beginnings.

125 mph at what elevation?

Whatever elevation the bouy is at. Since it is, I believe, a NBDC bouy I would presume 10M which is what they are all set at I believe. All that info is available on NDBC website

Hi David,

That's actually not a buoy report...that's the Garden Banks platform report of 109KT at 122M ASL that was referenced in the 11 AM NHC dicussion.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

[fci]

May not be a traditional eye, but this eye-like feature has been persisting for several hours now. And yes, the tower popping on the SE side is the coldest top we've seen in the gulf so far with Ike (14:45z):

What an oddly mis-shapen storm.
Almost nothing to the west of the center (don't know how to calculate miles from the picture) and a ton to the right.
You could have wind and like no rain and then suddenly be in the eyewall.

[Steve]

Good luck southerngale, vb, et al.

>>Hey Steve and Tailgater how did ya'll make out? Everything ok?

So far so good. Still nasty downtown with more to come. Had to come to work today (55 mile drive) and the worst I could see was that Bayou Des Allemands was somewhat over its banks but not quite on US 90 yet. We still had power but were without cable and internet in Lockport. 2.5-3" so far from Ike.

Steve