ATL: IKE Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html lots of live coverage of galveston

[TCmet]

Members and guests, don't let Ike's current intensity fool you. This system is very large and even if the winds are at Category 2, which is intense in its own way, you will experience them for a long period of time if you're in its immediate path. Nonetheless, Ike's story is not its winds but the storm surge. Evacuate if you're at the coast, don't take the risk.

I second that statement.

[HURAKAN]

[rlltex]

[quote="fci"][quote="Weatherfreak000"]Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify.[size=150][b] Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm[/b][/size].[/quote]

Truly a mystifying statement[/quote]

I get what he means. At this point any good news is a blessing to me!!

[TCmet]

anyone have the slosh model for galveston and houston? the galveston ship channel goes right into the city of houton. anyone know if they have gates on the channel?

That looks like 27-30 ft at the end of Galveston Bay...how close is that to HOU?

The largest red dot is very close to the ship canal leading to downtown Houston. This is approaching a worst-case scenario for them.

[Nexus]

May not be a traditional eye, but this eye-like feature has been persisting for several hours now. And yes, the tower popping on the SE side is the coldest top we've seen in the gulf so far with Ike (14:45z):

But the west side looks open.

The heat engine seems efficient enough to sustain the mass of the storm. It almost seems like it has to be this way, due to the backwards nature of development (size before core) after the trek across Cuba.

It would be interesting to place Ike over a non-threatening area of open ocean, to see how long it would take to re-develop a traditional core, given the size. I'm not sure it's even possible.

[apocalypt-flyer]

If the slosh model verifies this could be AWFUL for Houston.

[Weatherfreak000]

Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify. Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm.

I know you mean well, but there is a significant probability tonight that the fatality range along the coast is going to be in the hundreds. In the low thousands if the Galveston seawall is overtopped. The wind intensity of this storm is, at this point, not as important as the surge it is going to generate.

Unfortunately so, however I was only commenting on the Saffir-Simpson scale to modeling hurricane intensity.

It has always been my general theory Storm Surge and Girth should determine intensity. But unfortunately there are alot of inconsistencies involved. Wind Speed is a safer method because the destructive power increases exponentially in a storm that would already have a massive storm surge due to size when you add on the winds.

That's my point here..

[jinftl]

The challenge is that the people who need to read this are not surfing the web for storm and weather sites to post on...


LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
BAYSHORE AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY
RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE
DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY.
NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE
WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.
WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.
COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE
DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION.
DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR

People like numbers and lines. Forecasters are going to have to learn to produce 'soft facts' if they want people to listen, unfortunately.

If you don't want people to focus on the line then don't draw the line. If you don't want people focusing on only the wind then don't use a scale that is primarily wind based.

Obviously there are people who see this as a cat 2 and are thinking they won't be in harms way and the whole thing is being over hyped. From their point of view Gustav was over-cast and Ike will be under-cast. We need better solutions that take into account normal (even if frustrating) human behavior.

Good luck to all in Ike's path!

[dhweather]

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html lots of live coverage of galveston

Thanks for the link - the Gulf looks extremely angry.

[fci]

People like numbers and lines. Forecasters are going to have to learn to produce 'soft facts' if they want people to listen, unfortunately.

If you don't want people to focus on the line then don't draw the line. If you don't want people focusing on only the wind then don't use a scale that is primarily wind based.

Obviously there are people who see this as a cat 2 and are thinking they won't be in harms way and the whole thing is being over hyped. From their point of view Gustav was over-cast and Ike will be under-cast. We need better solutions that take into account normal (even if frustrating) human behavior.

Good luck to all in Ike's path!

Just to pile on somemore about the "category" issue.

Wilma was a Cat 1 bordering on Cat 2 when she blew through South Florida.
Hit the west coast but tore the crap out of the east coast.
I still have damage that, for many reasons; is still not resolved.

Ike is going to be known probably more for the surge than the winds but don't think that a Cat 2 is inconsequential.
Wilma beat the crap out of us as a Cat 1 maybe a Cat 2!

[cpdaman]

Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify. Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm.

thats not going to go over well

Well...if people feel the need to argue...by all means. I'll take that as they want a Cat 3/4 compared to what we have now.

the reason people would argue is that this statment makes you sound ignorant of the elevated storm surge threat due to the size of the windfield, and will not be = to the average cat 2 storm, and sure if this were a three at it's current size it would be even worse, but what is the blessing between having your sea front home destoryed under 18 feet of water compared to 22 for those that "get" this storm. or for those that are stuck in 4 feet of water instead of 5 as they try to exit the barrier islands

[hiflyer]

Station 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42035

reported 18 ft wave heights an hour and 10 mins ago....this would be the best indicator of what is coming for Galveston due to its location....if it can open up and report.

[CowboyFan]

looks like the famous "fist"----could be about to get stronger

[dhweather]

please watch this and reconsider your decision. I took about half of these pictures, and the pictures still do not do the surge damage justice.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujQwTQ8JnNc

Don't think it won't happen to you - it will.

[HouTXmetro]

If Slosh models are correct, Surge "could" get well into East Houston... Coupled with Fresh Water Flooding and the lack of an outlet for the Bayous possibly downtown.

[dixiebreeze]

OMG! Look at all those black tops:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

[bayoubebe]

Question for Louisiana. Are we expected to get any of the bad cells that are RIGHT below us in the gulf? I've been searching for that answer online and t.v.; can't find anything right now.

Those bands look so close to us, but it appears they are moving west. Will they move north?

[KWT]

As others said whilst the winds are going to cause damage, the real killer will be the storm surge with Ike...

Sure its got winds of a cat-2...but its got a storm surge that many cat-4's would barely reach

[jinftl]

Thank you....people have no idea what sustained cat 1 conditions are like....it is not the same as gusts to hurricane force. the wind field of wilma over south florida was so large that millions experienced hurricane conditions, many for the first time. people overestimate the wind speeds they think they have experienced. Even though Wilma made landfall as a Cat 3 in florida, the vast majority of damage was done on the southeast coast with cat 1/cat 2 winds. Third costliest storm in u.s. history.....except we did not have the surge disaster upper tx/sw la will likely see.

The urgency of all these posts we have been making is for the surge zone...those inland will suffer, but the bulk of that will come when the winds die down and the power outages go on and on.

People like numbers and lines. Forecasters are going to have to learn to produce 'soft facts' if they want people to listen, unfortunately.

If you don't want people to focus on the line then don't draw the line. If you don't want people focusing on only the wind then don't use a scale that is primarily wind based.

Obviously there are people who see this as a cat 2 and are thinking they won't be in harms way and the whole thing is being over hyped. From their point of view Gustav was over-cast and Ike will be under-cast. We need better solutions that take into account normal (even if frustrating) human behavior.

Good luck to all in Ike's path!

Just to pile on somemore about the "category" issue.

Wilma was a Cat 1 bordering on Cat 2 when she blew through South Florida.
Hit the west coast but tore the crap out of the east coast.
I still have damage that, for many reasons; is still not resolved.

Ike is going to be known probably more for the surge than the winds but don't think that a Cat 2 is inconsequential.
Wilma beat the crap out of us as a Cat 1 maybe a Cat 2!