ATL: IKE Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

the reason people would argue is that this statment makes you sound ignorant of the elevated storm surge threat due to the size of the windfield, and will not be = to the average cat 2 storm, and sure if this were a three at it's current size it would be even worse, but what is the blessing between having your sea front home destoryed under 18 feet of water compared to 22 for those that "get" this storm. or for those that are stuck in 4 feet of water instead of 5 as they try to exit the barrier islands

I disagree...and think you need to drop this argument. The difference in effects if this storm was say, 120mph would be exponential for many. As you said, the huge windfield would come into play, extending much higher destructive winds not only in the center but to those around it, and as you said an increase of storm surge.

Frankly i'd argue your ignorant of my post...not the other way around. The difference may not mean much to people directly in the eyewall but could be a blessing to others around the area. In any case please drop this...no one is ignorant of storm surge.

I see many residents in the Texas area are very sensitive of the disaster nearing them, and that's understandable. Coming from someone who lived through Katrina I can completely relate.

[Skyhawk]

anyone have the slosh model for galveston and houston? the galveston ship channel goes right into the city of houton. anyone know if they have gates on the channel?[/Quote]

The Galveston ship channel goes to the port of Galveston. The Houston ship channel goes through Galveston Bay and up Buffalo Bayou to the turning basin several miles east of downtown Houston. The Housto ship channel does not go to downtown Houston, which is 55 feet above sea level.

[dixiebreeze]

Latest Dvorak: 12/1145 UTC 27.1N 92.3W T4.5/5.0 IKE -- Atlantic Ocean

[JtSmarts]

We should start seeing some pressure drops sooner or later. It's been basically steady for most of the morning.

[RL3AO]

MBL winds were 118kt on the last NOAA drop. That supports 100.3 knots.

[vbhoutex]

If Slosh models are correct, Surge "could" get well into East Houston... Coupled with Fresh Water Flooding and the lack of an outlet for the Bayous possibly downtown.

That will be the biggest problem for much of Houston, depending on the rains. If these surge values come to pass and it appears they will, AND if we get 10"+ rains in a lot of areas, MAJOR FLOODING of the many portions of Houston will become a HUGE issue. Don't get me wrong, there will be plenty of wind damage to trees, power poles and poorly built structures as well as the downtown skyscrapers too. Bottom line, it is not a pretty picture for SE TX/SW LA!!!!

[mvtrucking]

People are already getting trapped. Channel 11 in Houston had a phone interview with a woman in Crystal Beach (on a barrier island in front of Galveston bay but not on Galveston island itself). She waited until this morning to get out - and now she can't, or at least thinks she can't. The bridges are flooding. It was a strange interview - she was kind of in denial about the danger she was in, but she seemed to know she was in denial. I dunno, maybe that's a good attitude if you're really trapped although if I were in her situation I'd be moving heaven and earth to get out.

If you're on Crystal Beach, or any similar place, and read this please don't give up on getting out yet. Keep trying, talk to other people, keep looking. Almost any structure at or near the beach is a deathtrap with these kinds of surge projections.

If anyone is trapped already they are in dire straits and need to find a boat and paddle to dry land ASAP.This is only going to get worse and fast. Prayers for everyone in harms way.

[CrazyC83]

What is the reduction Crazy from 123 kts?

At the level they are flying, about 85% - so that would be about 105 kt at the surface. However, that is not supported by dropsondes or the SFMR at this point, so I would go lower - about 95 kt.

[pablolopez26]

Im wondering, where is all the rain??

I seriously cant believe this storm! LOL

[CronkPSU]

for those of you with DirecTV, channel 361 is now streaming KHOU

there are still naive people in Galveston planning on sticking it out and keep referring to Alicia and that it hardly flooded over the sea wall...they say there is still time to leave, the causeway has not been closed...YET

I am all for accurate NHC advisories and such but sometimes you need to scare the hell out of people, call it a cat 3, those latest FL winds justify it anyways

[CowboyFan]

I'm from SE Texas(Beaumont)....but I live in Jackson Ms. now. My prayers are with all of you in Texas.

[aelliott209]

http://www.sunherald.com/pageone/story/811192.html


This article says it all for how many of us feel about the importance of evacuating.

[caribepr]

Best thoughts and hopes for all those in the wide, wide path of Ike, including those far inland who will be affected...and those who are already getting the pre-landfall impacts. Be safe.

[dixiebreeze]

We should start seeing some pressure drops sooner or later. It's been basically steady for most of the morning.

22 NM east of Galveston:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 19.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 16 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 113 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
10:50 am NE ( 47 deg ) 29.3 kts
10:40 am NE ( 48 deg ) 28.0 kts
10:30 am NE ( 47 deg ) 28.7 kts
10:20 am NE ( 48 deg ) 27.8 kts
10:10 am NE ( 46 deg ) 26.4 kts
10:00 am NE ( 48 deg ) 28.0 kts

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im wondering, where is all the rain??

I seriously cant believe this storm! LOL

Pablo Not sure where your at but this is obiously your 1st rodeo...

[TCmet]

The largest red dot is very close to the ship canal leading to downtown Houston. This is approaching a worst-case scenario for them.

And they only evacuated the zones for Cat3 and lower? That surge is Cat 5 surge....

Well, that map is only a 10% exceedance probability. So the likely value is lower, more like 20-25ft. But still.

[CrazyC83]

for those of you with DirecTV, channel 361 is now streaming KHOU

there are still naive people in Galveston planning on sticking it out and keep referring to Alicia and that it hardly flooded over the sea wall...they say there is still time to leave, the causeway has not been closed...YET

I am all for accurate NHC advisories and such but sometimes you need to scare the hell out of people, call it a cat 3, those latest FL winds justify it anyways

Those comparing to Alicia are fools.

1) Alicia was a pretty small, fast moving storm. Those don't produce a lot of surge.

2) Alicia was probably not a Category 3 hurricane - flight-level winds at 850mb a bit over 100 kt do not equal Cat 3.

This is more comparable to Carla or the 1900 hurricane.

[shawn67]

looks like the famous "fist"----could be about to get stronger

I have seen the "Fist" reference a couple of times. What does it mean?

It's the shape of the cloud mass around the center, in the past it sometimes was the start of a strenghtening phase

I want to wait until I see more of a trend...I've been burned too many times thinking the eye would peek out only to see close up.

[CronkPSU]

KHOU reporting lots of reports of people on rooves in Freeport or Galveston, didn't catch which city they were talking about

[cycloneye]

MBL wind = 118 knots. Oh my!