ATL: IKE Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

MBL wind = 118 knots. Oh my!

Cat 3 IMO..Book it..

[jinftl]

been steady for the last few days....we are closing in on landfall....sooner or later has an endpoint in site thankfully....there will be enough to contend with as is when the major hurricane surge hits and millions experience hurricane force winds of even cat 1 and 2 strength inland.

if ike goes up to 115 miles, the immediate coast may see such winds sustained, in pockets, but i would not expect a large swath of sustained cat 3 winds inland. there is always an immediate reduction as you go inland due to friction etc.

Preparations that should have been made are basically in 'hunker down' mode. an upgrade to a cat 3 should spur little additional action unless you have a chance to get out of the surge...people inland deciding to leave if an upgrade is made at 2pm or 5pm are at greater risk being in a car on the road with weather conditions worsensing and people not in the most focused mindset to be driving safely.

We should start seeing some pressure drops sooner or later. It's been basically steady for most of the morning.

[CronkPSU]

Dr. Neil Frank has just entered the KHOU studio

[apocalypt-flyer]

KHOU reporting lots of reports of people on rooves in Freeport or Galveston, didn't catch which city they were talking about

Oh crap, as if helicopters could evacuate all of them at last minute. For God's sake.

[KWT]

Well, that map is only a 10% exceedance probability. So the likely value is lower, more like 20-25ft. But still.

Yep, not going to make a huge difference.

As for the winds, clearly a cat-3 now surely, that MBL wind of 118kts also supports 100kts as does FL winds.

[RainWind]

We have had several feeder bands this morning, and they have been packing tropical storm force winds with them! And, you don't have to worry, when it rains, it is coming in sideways. Prayers go out to Texas residents as well as those in Cameron Parish and the Lake Charles area. I pray that they all have left the area and are high and dry on safe ground. RW

[fci]

the reason people would argue is that this statment makes you sound ignorant of the elevated storm surge threat due to the size of the windfield, and will not be = to the average cat 2 storm, and sure if this were a three at it's current size it would be even worse, but what is the blessing between having your sea front home destoryed under 18 feet of water compared to 22 for those that "get" this storm. or for those that are stuck in 4 feet of water instead of 5 as they try to exit the barrier islands

I disagree...and think you need to drop this argument. The difference in effects if this storm was say, 120mph would be exponential for many. As you said, the huge windfield would come into play, extending much higher destructive winds not only in the center but to those around it, and as you said an increase of storm surge.

Frankly i'd argue your ignorant of my post...not the other way around. The difference may not mean much to people directly in the eyewall but could be a blessing to others around the area. In any case please drop this...no one is ignorant of storm surge.

I see many residents in the Texas area are very sensitive of the disaster nearing them, and that's understandable. Coming from someone who lived through Katrina I can completely relate.

I'm just shocked that this conversation can continue.

You are probably the ONLY ONE that could use the word "blessing" to those who are in the path of this storm and the impending surge that it is going to bring.

[CrazyC83]

MBL wind = 118 knots. Oh my!

What does this translate to surface wise?

100 knots.

[yzerfan]

KHOU said 20-50 people on roofs on the flooding Bolivar peninsula. Coast Guard helicopters are en route. They're lucky the winds aren't bad enough to ground all aircraft yet.

[weunice]

Dr. Neil Frank has just entered the KHOU studio

I'm afraid his force field has met its match ... I hope I'm wrong though

[Nexus]

Intersection of Interstate 45 and 61st street on Galv Island.

[RL3AO]

I see NWS Houston backed off their statement.

"PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEATH."

[AJC3]

the reason people would argue is that this statment makes you sound ignorant of the elevated storm surge threat due to the size of the windfield, and will not be = to the average cat 2 storm, and sure if this were a three at it's current size it would be even worse, but what is the blessing between having your sea front home destoryed under 18 feet of water compared to 22 for those that "get" this storm. or for those that are stuck in 4 feet of water instead of 5 as they try to exit the barrier islands

I disagree...and think you need to drop this argument. The difference in effects if this storm was say, 120mph would be exponential for many. As you said, the huge windfield would come into play, extending much higher destructive winds not only in the center but to those around it, and as you said an increase of storm surge.

Frankly i'd argue your ignorant of my post...not the other way around. The difference may not mean much to people directly in the eyewall but could be a blessing to others around the area. In any case please drop this...no one is ignorant of storm surge.

I see many residents in the Texas area are very sensitive of the disaster nearing them, and that's understandable. Coming from someone who lived through Katrina I can completely relate.

I'm just shocked that this conversation can continue.

You are probably the ONLY ONE that could use the word "blessing" to those who are in the path of this storm and the impending surge that it is going to bring.

Folks, this is escalating more than it needs to. A friendly PM has already been sent. Let's not clutter up the thread with an argument. Take it to PM if you must.

[Just Joshing You]

I see NWS Houston backed off their statement.

"PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEATH."

Probably because of the simple fact that CNN was running with their "CERTAINTY OF DEATH" line.

[CronkPSU]

I see NWS Houston backed off their statement.

"PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEATH."

it said "certain death" last time, right?

maybe some hotshot lawyer warned them that they could get sued if someone didn't die on the island who wanted to or something...storm is more dangerous now than it was before

[weunice]

The U.S. Coast Guard began airlifting residents from their homes Friday morning after the wind and rain from Hurricane Ike became too much. About 22 to 50 people who live in Bolivar Penninsula were taken to High Island. (source)

[jinftl]

And TX is will experience one of the weaker quadrants (NW) of the storm first as far as wind exent...east side has even longer fetch of winds and weather

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

[CronkPSU]

KHOU still trying to remind everyone they still have time to get out but it has to be right now...and of course there are people just hanging out behind the reporters

[fci]

When does the NHC start going with bulletins every 2 hours?
I thought that they did this when a storm was close in.

[KWT]

I see NWS Houston backed off their statement.

"PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEATH."

Yeah, no doubt the certain part was a scare tactic, however make no doubt with such a huge surge this will be a killer.

The only thing we have to hope is the big early waves has made people get out of there, if they weren't there we'd have an even worse situations.