ATL: IKE Discussion

[NEXRAD]

It's a few minutes after 12 Noon here in Biloxi, I've been up most of the night, I haven't encountered that much rain from Ike during the night or today but I have had a lot of wind. It's still windy here right now but the sun is trying to come out. What I want to know is this, is the worst of the weather associated with Ike over for me here in Biloxi or can I expect more wind and possibly some rain later tonight here in Biloxi?

There will be some scattered shower activity today and tonight for the Southern Mississippi area and wind gusts to around 35 mph could accompany the showers, however with Ike pulling more to the west, the pressure gradients will ease and calmer conditions will likely set up tonight and for Saturday.

- Jay

[Bunkertor]

Wow, looking at the pictures it looks like that this is going to pretty devestating because of how stupid people are..

Yesterday i had the feeling evac should have started a little earlier...

[cycloneye]

[Shoshana]

Earlier this morning CNN was talking to a guy who said he's staying on Galveston Island. He's in construction and sounded a bit nervous when he said he was helping people board up and left it too late. (Note - it wasn't too late - the roads were still open and he could have dropped everything and at least gone to Houston)

What shocked me is that he's there with 16 members of his extended family.

He said that the building they're in has 4 foot floors and survived both Alicia and the 1900 Hurricane. He did say he was scared in Alicia...

[attallaman]

It's a few minutes after 12 Noon here in Biloxi, I've been up most of the night, I haven't encountered that much rain from Ike during the night or today but I have had a lot of wind. It's still windy here right now but the sun is trying to come out. What I want to know is this, is the worst of the weather associated with Ike over for me here in Biloxi or can I expect more wind and possibly some rain later tonight here in Biloxi?

There will be some scattered shower activity today and tonight for the Southern Mississippi area and wind gusts to around 35 mph could accompany the showers, however with Ike pulling more to the west, the pressure gradients will ease and calmer conditions will likely set up tonight and for Saturday.

- Jay

So basically the worst is over for Biloxi at this point? Except for some showers conditions should improve later during the day and tomorrow morning it will all be over?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

people who do get the message "to get the hell out-it's a cat 3" may be stuck

It's probably too late. The road is covered in water out of surfside, and Seawall blvd is closed. Coast Guard is evacing folks because another road is totally under They said 150 requests for rescue and they've completed 16. This news comes from one of the major news channel feeds I was just watching, sry I didn't catch the station.

[txag2005]

Andrew hit Homestead with Cat 5 winds right? Right now according to http://www.houstonrunfromthewind.org they are predicting mid to upper Cat 1 sustined winds for us, around 88 mph. I imagine if Ike upgrades to a low three those winds may be in the ninties.

Most modern houses should be able to sustain that wind right?

[vbhoutex]

Wow, looking at the pictures it looks like that this is going to pretty devestating because of how stupid people are..

Yesterday i had the feeling evac should have started a little earlier...

People have had plenty of time to get out of the surge zones. They have chosen to stay behind against official orders. It has nothing to do with the timing of the evacuation calls.

[jinftl]

I think if you asked the majority of people who stayed why they did...probably most won't say it was because there wasn't time. Maybe some, but most who stay have made that decision in their minds well in advance. Shelters are still open in safe locations...maybe there is are a few limited hours left for folks to get to them...when they realize they needed to leave...and the 911 calls start (the 911 calls from new orleans in katrina are gut-wrenching to listen to...not even going to post a link)....it will be too late. A slight shift in track may be their saving grace.

Wow, looking at the pictures it looks like that this is going to pretty devestating because of how stupid people are..

Yesterday i had the feeling evac should have started a little earlier...

[NEXRAD]

Latest tide gauge readings... Calcasieu Pass, Lousiana (near Cameron) - 8.16 feet. At 4.0 feet, water begins to cover Main Street in Cameron, and at 13.3 feet most of Cameron Parish floods. Sabine Pass, Texas - 6.96 feet. At 4.9 feet, most roads in Sabine Pass are under water. At 6.4 feet there is extensive flooding in Bridge City.

- Jay

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Most modern houses should be able to sustain that wind right?

Run from the water, hide from the wind. Most houses can take up to CAT3 without any big issue.

[Yankeegirl]

Well so far its quite breezy here... got a really cute e mail, someone had some time and re-did Ice Ice baby, and did Ike Ike baby... classic... I will check in later, if we have power... everyone stay safe!!

[NEXRAD]

So basically the worst is over for Biloxi at this point? Except for some showers conditions should improve later during the day and tomorrow morning it will all be over?

Yes, based on all of the current information I'm seeing and based on the official NWSFO forecast for the area.

- Jay

[DESTRUCTION5]

Andrew hit Homestead with Cat 5 winds right? Right now according to http://www.houstonrunfromthewind.org they are predicting mid to upper Cat 1 sustined winds for us, around 88 mph. I imagine if Ike upgrades to a low three those winds may be in the ninties.

Most modern houses should be able to sustain that wind right?

Yes the biggest problem with these winds is loss of shingle and water intrusion...and that assuming your not in a surge area..

[Bunkertor]

Wow, looking at the pictures it looks like that this is going to pretty devestating because of how stupid people are..

Yesterday i had the feeling evac should have started a little earlier...

People have had plenty of time to get out of the surge zones. They have chosen to stay behind against official orders. It has nothing to do with the timing of the evacuation calls.

Ah, OK, it´s my fault then. I thought it was a close call.

[vbhoutex]

Wow, looking at the pictures it looks like that this is going to pretty devestating because of how stupid people are..

Yesterday i had the feeling evac should have started a little earlier...

People have had plenty of time to get out of the surge zones. They have chosen to stay behind against official orders. It has nothing to do with the timing of the evacuation calls.

Fortunately the state has a lot of resources in place and SAR is underway in several areas already. Hopefully, they can get those out that want out before the winds become to high along the coast and that is a short time. You can't protect people against themselves unfortunately.

[curtadams]

To my VERY untrained eye, it looks like the bad stuff could go where the TX/LA borderline is.
Am I viewing this wrong?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

You are correct. That's where the high-res hurricane models and surge models project the worst effects will be. Quite bad enough for the Houston area, but not the worst.

Re another post on deaths:

We won't see everybody on Galveston die or even close. Even in 1900 it was "only" 10-15% of the population. The seawall will make a big difference - not by stopping the flood, but by stopping the wave action. Plus much of the city was raised. Could be quite horrific even so.

Watching Houston TV is very frightening. What has *already* happened would be a significant disaster - major flooding in beach communities; consequently I assume hundreds or thousands of buildings with major flood damage. And it's just starting.

[Sabanic]

Water is still rising here. Causeway under water at North end of Mobile Bay, and 193 to Dauphin Island still closed and under water per reports.
Gusts continuing to get stronger. Ike is one big boy

[jinftl]

Yes....wilma in south florida is a good storm to compare...we had sustained winds in the 80-100 mph range with higher gusts. Lots of cosmetic damage...it will look like a war zone with all of the trees down and debris, but there was not alot in the way of total building failure. I would recommend window protection as i saw firsthand a part of a roof crash into windows in my condo building. But injuries and death toll were low...nuisance and clean-up factor were high...power outages that lasted 1-2 weeks are most people's biggest memory...in some respects, the storm experience really started when the winds dropped and the power loss took over.

Andrew hit Homestead with Cat 5 winds right? Right now according to http://www.houstonrunfromthewind.org they are predicting mid to upper Cat 1 sustined winds for us, around 88 mph. I imagine if Ike upgrades to a low three those winds may be in the ninties.

Most modern houses should be able to sustain that wind right?

[jopatura]

According to KTRK, the surge is already 8' in Galveston.