ATL: IKE Discussion

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dwg71
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10941 Postby dwg71 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.



That would be the best case scenerio for Houston Galveston, especially if it stays East weighted (only way I could describe its look) any movement to the north would put it eastern chambers county or one more county over.

Radar shows very little rain N and E of centery.
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attallaman

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10942 Postby attallaman » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.
Would that be good or bad for Houston town?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10943 Postby TideJoe » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:40 pm

Praxus wrote:Does anyone else think this could be worse than Katrina? Especially after hearing how 30,000 fools stayed at Galveston...


I hope they are either in high rises or can swim very well. The worst of the surge will be around midnight and they won't be able to see a thing.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10944 Postby NEXRAD » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:40 pm

Deeper activity continues to wrap around Ike's center and has effectively cut-off the dry air intrusion that impacted the storm earlier today. The IRWV shows better outflow north of the storm and improved banding with the deepest activity near and east of the center.

- Jay
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#10945 Postby Pebbles » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:40 pm

I can't find the link I had for the SLOSH model run from this morning? Can anyone share?
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#10946 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:41 pm

KHOU reports a judge just told the people left behind "godspeed, go to the highest point you can where you are. The coast guard will not be able to get everyone off in time."
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10947 Postby funster » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.


Let's hope it does right because that would be better for Houston/Galveston?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10948 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:41 pm

attallaman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.
Would that be good or bad for Houston town?

Good, that would put Houston in the weakest area of the storm.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10949 Postby NEXRAD » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:42 pm

dwg71 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.



That would be the best case scenerio for Houston Galveston, especially if it stays East weighted (only way I could describe its look) any movement to the north would put it eastern chambers county or one more county over.

Radar shows very little rain N and E of centery.


Remember that the radar imagery is sampling Ike's core region at higher elevation. Often tropical cyclones that appear "dry" at long radar ranges prove to be "wetter" as they approach the coast simply because the convection is below the radar beam.

- Jay
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10950 Postby txag2005 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.


Can you estimate where it would go inland? Where would NE Harris County be in relation to the eye?
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Re: Re:

#10951 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:42 pm

Oh no, this is what inland locations who don't see a surge will look like with prolonged cat 1/cat 2 winds..images of what galveston will look like are probably best seen from Katrina on the MS coast.

attallaman wrote:
jinftl wrote:What to expect if you experience cat 1/cat 2 conditions out of surge zone....pics from wilma in sfl....


txag2005 wrote:Andrew hit Homestead with Cat 5 winds right? Right now according to http://www.houstonrunfromthewind.org they are predicting mid to upper Cat 1 sustined winds for us, around 88 mph. I imagine if Ike upgrades to a low three those winds may be in the ninties.

Most modern houses should be able to sustain that wind right?
Will much of Galveston look like that tomorrow? Jim Cantore was pretty upset while on the air this morning reporting from a balcony at a Holiday Inn hotel, he couldn't believe the laid back attitude of the locals towards the storm, no law enforcement was around, he said the road should have been closed and also stressed the storm surge was going to be bad, very bad.
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#10952 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:43 pm

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10953 Postby attallaman » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.
How far inland will the hurricane force winds be felt once Ike makes landfall? I have relatives who live in Columbus which is located in Colorado County, what kind of winds can they expect to receive in Columbus at the time Ike makes landfall? When will the weather get real bad in Colorado County after Ike has made landfall?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10954 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:46 pm

Guys...give or take a little...The damage is going to be massive either way...West or East end. This storm is so broad, the water is there now.

IMHO, we are talking Natural Disaster. I live in Beaumont (Jefferson County). Water is rising in places I've never seen. I work for a newspaper and we are riding out the storm give SETX natives photos and reports. Anyone south of I-10 in the Golden Triangle have been warned enough.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10955 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:46 pm

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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10956 Postby rtd2 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:47 pm

funster wrote:
Praxus wrote:Does anyone else think this could be worse than Katrina? Especially after hearing how 30,000 fools stayed at Galveston...


I hope not but it does sound like the wrong place to be right now. :eek:




hope there are high multi story condos or buildings one could get to and go UP :uarrow: Biloxi and surrounding areas had very few... This storm is not to be taken lightly especially looking at the past few sat loops






what cat 5 surge will do
http://www.gulfcoastnews.com/GCNkatrinaPhotosPass.htm
Last edited by rtd2 on Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10957 Postby lantanatx » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:47 pm

I'm not so sure about the ability of a "modern" house in the Houston/Galveston area to survive. Unlike Florida and other coastal states, Texas has not really implemented improvements to the building codes in hurricane prone areas. Many houses in the Houston metro area were thrown up by big developers to the bare minimum building codes during the housing boom the last decade, and many homeowners have found numerous problems develop within months of closing - code violations, foundations, plumbing, etc. I hope I'm wrong, but I think even if we don't get Cat 3 winds, we will still see significant wind damage inland outside the surge zone. Houston has lots of trees, and in many of the new developments the trees planted were fast growing ashes, hackberries, etc.

I bought a 1955 house over a 10 year old house on the advice of my father who was an architectural engineer. The quality of the lumber (density and closeness of the grain) and the overall construction was much better in the 40 year old house, over the 10 year old house, and it had shown the ability to withstand storms in the past.

http://www.caller.com/news/2008/jun/02/ ... uotits-in/
In Texas, building codes not priority
Associated Press
Monday, June 2, 2008

HOUSTON -- Building codes in hurricane-prone parts of Texas lag behind those of other Gulf states that responded with stiffer standards after the devastating storm seasons of 2004-05.

Hurricane and disaster experts say they are stunned that Texas has done nothing to bolster building codes nearly three years after Hurricane Rita blasted its Gulf coast, the Houston Chronicle reported Sunday.

"Texas is an aberration," said Leslie Chapman-Henderson, chief executive of the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, a nonprofit organization. "It's eerily quiet in the state. Why are they not having a conversation about codes?"

Florida, the gold standard among U.S. states in a rating system for building codes and enforcement, further strengthened its codes after the 2004-05 seasons. So did Mississippi and Louisiana, which adopted a statewide building code for the first time after Hurricane Katrina swamped New Orleans and Rita battered its southwestern coast.

Texas, meanwhile, has quasi-mandatory codes for coastal residents, unevenly enforced codes in cities, and builder-enforced codes elsewhere. National advocates for stronger building codes say that's not a progressive approach for a hurricane-prone state.

Chapman-Henderson said the first step toward creating a statewide code would be to hire engineers from the state's universities to assess the existing quality of homes and building code enforcement. That would provide information to begin developing a uniform code. The code could have different standards for coastal and inland communities.

"This is one of the avoidable disasters," she said. "Not doing anything is the classic definition of insanity."

The idea of a statewide building code appears to have little traction in Texas. Such a plan probably would require counties to take on additional enforcement work in unincorporated areas.

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said that while it's something to consider, cost will be an issue. He also says it's unrealistic to compare Texas to Florida.

"Everyone likes to talk about Florida, Florida, Florida," Emmett said. "But Texas is not a narrow peninsula sticking out into the ocean."

Florida leads the nation with an average rating of 3.5 on a grading scale from 1 (exemplary) to 10 conducted by ISO, an information risk company that primarily serves insurers by assessing building codes and enforcement standards in communities. A good rating generally lowers a region's insurance rates.

Texas scores an average of 5.5 on the ISO scale, a point worse than the national average. Houston, Baytown, Pearland and Harlingen were the best Texas cities with ratings of 4. Beaumont, which sustained considerable damage from Rita, scored poorly with an 8, Victoria with a 9, and Corpus Christi and Brownsville declined to participate in the program.

Corpus Christi has had staffing problems, a spokeswoman said, but eventually will participate.

Texas implemented some building standards along the coast after Hurricane Alicia struck the Houston area in 1983. The program requires homeowners to pay a surcharge to the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association if homes aren't up to code.

"When it comes to building homes, we need to talk about preventive measures," said Julie Roachman, chief executive of the Institute for Business and Home Safety, a nonprofit group dedicated to reducing property losses. "We should use things such as hurricane straps as selling points, not granite counter tops and surround sound."
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10958 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:47 pm

As of last update...64 kt...essentially threshold for hurricane force winds extend from the eye
64 KT.......105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW

If that stays constant until landfall with windfield size, you need to factor in some reduction as the storm moves inland....but sustained hurricane force winds of 50 miles from the eye if the eye is to your east seems very possible. Areas well outside of that will see strong ts winds with frequent hurricane gusts.



attallaman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.
How far inland will the hurricane force winds be felt once Ike makes landfall? I have relatives who live in Columbus which is located in Colorado County, what kind of winds can they expect to receive in Columbus at the time Ike makes landfall? When will the weather get real bad in Colorado County after Ike has made landfall?
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#10959 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:49 pm

98kt sustained winds from the hurricane hunters anyone else see that?

edit I should say those are flight level winds. But I'm not sure how old it is, I just got home form work.
Last edited by 6SpeedTA95 on Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10960 Postby NEXRAD » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:49 pm

attallaman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I am measuring a 4-hr movement of 323 deg. at 12.25 kts. That heading, should it continue, would put the center inland just east of Galveston Bay in southern Chambers County in about 13 hours.
How far inland will the hurricane force winds be felt once Ike makes landfall? I have relatives who live in Columbus which is located in Colorado County, what kind of winds can they expect to receive in Columbus at the time Ike makes landfall? When will the weather get real bad in Colorado County after Ike has made landfall?


Based on Ike's present forecast and model guidance, the Columbus area is likely to receive tropical storm conditions. This agrees with the NWSFO local forecasts and the Tropical Storm Wind Warning for the area. This evening winds will become breezy for the Columbus area and will increase throughout the night. The worst conditions are likely after midnight and on Saturday, with peak sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph likely with gusts to hurricane force a possibility in any intense squalls. If Ike moves farther west than forecast, conditions could be worse.

- Jay
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