ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[JtSmarts]

I saw the 108, probably 80-85 at the surface. The surface estimates and flight level readings have been huge in difference.

Highest surface wind was 88 kts.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Now finding 112 knots at FL.

[Storm Contractor]

3 people in 2 houses are staying in the surfside area which is ALREADY under water???? What is wrong with people? Do they really think this is it? The police chief tried to personally talk them out and they still stay put?? I guess I'll never understand people! What a SAD DAY already!

[gboudx]

3 people in 2 houses are staying in the surfside area which is ALREADY under water???? What is wrong with people? Do they really think this is it? The police chief tried to personally talk them out and they still stay put?? I guess I'll never understand people! What a SAD DAY already!

Not to sound too callous or cold, but I hope they did the authorities a favor and taped or stapled ID to themselves for later. But I do hope they come to their senses and get out. Some people have a death wish.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

3 people in 2 houses are staying in the surfside area which is ALREADY under water???? What is wrong with people? Do they really think this is it? The police chief tried to personally talk them out and they still stay put?? I guess I'll never understand people! What a SAD DAY already!

Not to sound too callous or cold, but I hope they did the authorities a favor and taped or stapled ID to themselves for later. But I do hope they come to their senses and get out. Some people have a death wish.

Indeed, people are running out of time. If they are going to leave, from the coast and islands, they better do it quick!

[NFLnut]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_hd.html#a_topad


Hurr Hunters only finding cat1, so far...they may find more soon, but it looks like they penetrated the heaviest bands and only got 85 mph

Actually, according to that graphic, it only has 60 mph winds.

[dixiebreeze]

OMG! Look at those black tops:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

Oops, wrong thread -- but still pertinent.

[Praxus]

GFDL showing 83 knot winds sustained in southern ontario? What the heck? It had better be on crack. No one in the great lakes region has experience with those kinds of winds.

[poof121]

GFDL showing 83 knot winds sustained in southern ontario? What the heck? It had better be on crack. No one in the great lakes region has experience with those kinds of winds.

Just look at the GFS, Ike hits Greenland...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008091212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Extratropical, of course...

[CrazyC83]

GFDL showing 83 knot winds sustained in southern ontario? What the heck? It had better be on crack. No one in the great lakes region has experience with those kinds of winds.

Just look at the GFS, Ike hits Greenland...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008091212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Extratropical, of course...

That looks like a pressure around 932mb.

[BigB0882]

I don't see how this could possibly sustain winds of 83 kts all the way up to the Great Lakes. Got to be some kind of mistake. I also don't see how it could possibly hit Greenland at 932 mb. If it couldn't do it in the Gulf then how can it do it that high in the Atlantic?

[CrazyC83]

I don't see how this could possibly sustain winds of 83 kts all the way up to the Great Lakes. Got to be some kind of mistake. I also don't see how it could possibly hit Greenland at 932 mb. If it couldn't do it in the Gulf then how can it do it that high in the Atlantic?

Baroclinic forcing of some sort...

[vbhoutex]

3 people in 2 houses are staying in the surfside area which is ALREADY under water???? What is wrong with people? Do they really think this is it? The police chief tried to personally talk them out and they still stay put?? I guess I'll never understand people! What a SAD DAY already!

Not to sound too callous or cold, but I hope they did the authorities a favor and taped or stapled ID to themselves for later. But I do hope they come to their senses and get out. Some people have a death wish.

Indeed, people are running out of time. If they are going to leave, from the coast and islands, they better do it quick!

The authorities did ask them to write, tape or staple some sort of id to them so they could be identified afterwards. don't know if they did it. Almost all SAR operations are ceasing at this time along the coast as winds are increasing quickly and making it unsafe for SAR of almost any type.

[cycloneye]

IMO the EURO and GFDL were the models that performed the best.

[Enzo Aquarius]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1009 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...KIRBYVILLE...JASPER...BUNA...
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...PORT NECHES...PORT ARTHUR...NEDERLAND...GROVES...
CENTRAL GARDENS...
NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...NEWTON...CALL...BURKEVILLE...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WEST ORANGE...VIDOR...ORANGE...MAURICEVILLE...
BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 1007 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM CALL TO CENTRAL GARDENS...MOVING NORTH AT 43
MPH.

* TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
VIDOR BY 1015 AM CDT...
KIRBYVILLE AND 6 MILES WEST OF NEWTON BY 1030 AM CDT...
BUNA AND 7 MILES EAST OF JASPER BY 1045 AM CDT...

[CrazyC83]

IMO the EURO and GFDL were the models that performed the best.

If the GFDL performs the best inland and beyond, this will be a looooong story that continues...

[Sanibel]

GFDL was stellar. Almost perfect if you learn to disregard its "tail-leading" tendencies.


It has the flaw of estimating windspeed above the surface which is why it is forecasting high winds over land. But perhaps this is closer to the steering level which makes it more accurate?

[shah8]

What do people think of the whole issues with the GFS performing poorly at the worst possible moment? The split in the models that the GFS supported reduced the amount of time between convincing authorities to do mandatory evacuations and the arrival of the storm. Is it a correctable issue?

[CrazyC83]

Who would have thought the insane forecast of the GFDL inland would end up verifying???