ATL: IKE Discussion

[VeniceInlet]

here's the idiot in the bear suit:

[Stratusxpeye]

Stratus...what's that link you have you are watching?

http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826& ... s&noad=yes

(Just reported a few more people are sitting on their front porch on surf side beach saying they are "watching the storm come ashore on the porch")

Link to the Military being sent into the barge ship that's out of commission at sea

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/1 ... index.html

[rtd2]

I would be curious to know from the pros and veteran stormwatchers...have there been many storms with the level of pre-landfall surge flooding this far out from landfall as ike?

katrina was flooding most of biloxi 7 hours prior to L/F...I know I was out in it breifly before sheltering on base


edit to add IKE has many streets flooded(MINOR) as I type this...and we are HUNDREDS of miles away

[Steve Cosby]

Hurricane Wind Warnings for the marine area, High Wind Warning for land. Of course, the GFDL output seems bizarre for the intensity over the Great Lakes/Canada.

- Jay

It brings it to hurricane strength over Missouri (At least an eariler run did) and kept it at such. If still tropical (unlikely), Hurricane Wind Warnings (and Tropical Storm Wind Warnings) would be issued for the land areas.

With all due respect, there isn't any precedent, so try not to sound as if you know what officially will happen in the event that the unlikely happens.[/quote]

In Oklahoma last year we had a tropical storm reform over land I would say anything is possible at this point[/quote]

Guys that is model only - the official forecast is Depression over Northwest Arkansas. Our local WFO is saying 40 mph winds sustained. If it gets worse going north, it will be baroclinic rather than tropical. Still not a walk in the park for sure!

[jinftl]

what difference would that have made at this point really? 105 mph and 115 mph are both destructive and time for preps just about done.

Wow, it looks like we could see a decent Cat 3 at landfall, based on data and appearence, i just think NHC should of called it a CAT 3 at 1pm CDT Adv...

[Shawee]

To my VERY untrained eye, it looks like the bad stuff could go where the TX/LA borderline is.
Am I viewing this wrong?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

You are correct. That's where the high-res hurricane models and surge models project the worst effects will be. Quite bad enough for the Houston area, but not the worst.

Re another post on deaths:

We won't see everybody on Galveston die or even close. Even in 1900 it was "only" 10-15% of the population. The seawall will make a big difference - not by stopping the flood, but by stopping the wave action. Plus much of the city was raised. Could be quite horrific even so.

Watching Houston TV is very frightening. What has *already* happened would be a significant disaster - major flooding in beach communities; consequently I assume hundreds or thousands of buildings with major flood damage. And it's just starting.

Unfortunately we ain't seen nothing yet. Afraid it will be bad for Lake Charles area also.

LSU Hurricane Center storm surge data for Louisiana Coast

http://hurricane.lsu.edu/floodprediction/

[Pebbles]

Reports on the Hurricane Net Scanner, it was a repeater message that there is a 50FT breech in the Starstell (or stardell?) Levee near Bellchase Louisiana (my spelling MAY be off here? sometimes a bit difficult to hear the exact pronounciation)

Belle Chasse is south of NOLA on the Mississippi.

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct ... tCcdaxufEQ

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belle_Chasse,_Louisiana

From that Article.. looks like this is the the one that has the 50' breech (ok my spelling was way way off there). The Hurricane net is now passing on a flash flood warning due to the breech. The warning states the police are also reporting the breech.

Nungesser said crews were working to shore up the privately owned Citrus Lands levee near Point Celeste that breached during Hurricane Gustav. During Gustav, crews worked frantically to close the breach to keep water from flooding Louisiana 23, the north-south artery on the west bank of the parish.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
135 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH EAST BANK IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE TOWN OF SCARSDALE...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 130 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A 50 FOOT
BREECH OF A PRIVATE LEVEE NEAR SCARSDALE.

* FLOODING WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS AROUND SCARSDALE. THIS
AREA HAS BEEN EVACUATED AND THE PUBLIC SHOULD AVOID THIS AREA UNTIL
THE SITUATION IMPROVES.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. DO NOT
ENTER THIS AREA

[KWT]

CronkPSU, wow deep convection wrapping around the western side now as well, the presentation is tightneing up in a big way before landfall.

Also it is indeed a big thing not to forget LA, they are also going to get hammered with a huge surge as well...

[jinftl]

flashback to kite surfer video from fort lauderdale in ts fay....as he got slammed and ambulance had to carry him off in critical condition

here's the idiot in the bear suit:

[NEXRAD]

Per media report, Galveston FD reports water rises of 1 foot every 15 to 20 minutes and a house fire that they cannot get to because of the surge. It's frightening to consider that tropical storm force winds haven't even begun on the island per the 1PM CDT NWS observations.

- Jay

[KWT]

CNN reporting a freighter adrift in Gulf with 22 persons on board.. engines cut out. coast guard had to abandon rescue attempt because of conditons.
God help those poor people!

They've been in that boat for a few hours now, hopefully they ride the storm out there ok but got a bad feeling about that one.

[jlauderdal]

here's the idiot in the bear suit:

ike is way beyond a bear watch, that bear should be hibernating, what a fool, fortunately the cameras turned away quickly so as not to give that idiot anymore airtime

[Weatherfreak14]

what difference would that have made at this point really? 105 mph and 115 mph are both destructive and time for preps just about done.

Wow, it looks like we could see a decent Cat 3 at landfall, based on data and appearence, i just think NHC should of called it a CAT 3 at 1pm CDT Adv...

It makes a difference to the public as you can see right now, i think people would be reacting differently dur to the CAT number, which is complety stupid, but thats what it is.

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... wards.html

Some more photos from Galveston via Houston TV.

[CrazyC83]

I guess bears don't know anything about evacuation orders?

[PhillyWX]

here's the idiot in the bear suit:

OMG. Darwin Award Candidate.

[KWT]

jlauderdal, wlel yeah that bloke is just a fool, hope he survives to entertain others post storm...

[jinftl]

Then they should have called it a Cat 4 or 5 for surge 48 hours ago. I agree that the higher the cat, the more seriously people may take it....but the holdouts probably wouldn't be swayed much.

Based on how storms are categorized now, the NHC will no doubt keep the current cat a reflection of the true storm..they won't hold back or overdo it.

what difference would that have made at this point really? 105 mph and 115 mph are both destructive and time for preps just about done.

Wow, it looks like we could see a decent Cat 3 at landfall, based on data and appearence, i just think NHC should of called it a CAT 3 at 1pm CDT Adv...

It makes a difference to the public as you can see right now, i think people would be reacting differently dur to the CAT number, which is complety stupid, but thats what it is.

[Agua]

here's the idiot in the bear suit:

OMG. Darwin Award Candidate.

What a @#$!!%! idiot.

[gubyw1]

Surge coming on now per Houston live video like crazy on Tiki Island. 70 ft blasts into the air. Starting to get windy too. This looks worse than Katrina.