AJC3 wrote:jlauderdal wrote:we need to get ajc3 on board with this system, he had a good call on hanna surviving when it looked like it could collapse at any minute.
LOL...thx, however like I said earlier, I just don't like the look of the upper air pattern near this system with an upper trough to it's west providing quite a bit of upper tropospheric shear over and around the wave axis, and another upper low to the NW dropping southward.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
I'll take a better look at it, and some of the high res model data when I get into work (3 PM) to see if upper conditions look like they might improve. But for now, count me as still saying 'nyet' as far as development into a TC is concerned.
I see what you mean but the NHC is giving it a shot of development but only slow development. The models that develop it (CMC and NAM, not the most reliable I have to admit) wait about 2-3 days. I imagine by then the shear will relax as the ULLs move far enough out of the picture. Of course by then it may not matter as it may be getting close to land by then.
Still development it appears possible but low and slow at best
Indeed. We also have good convergence and divergence. Looks like the ULL is going to keep this in check for now, but it is interesting that a few dynamics are in place.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF