ATL: IKE Discussion

[El Verde]

I do not understand why mandatory evacuations are not really mandatory. I find it baffling that a government will allow children to be exposed by their parents to these types of dangers. Having said that I think it would be a good thing if Geraldo were no more.

[smw1981]

ok....weather hats on....heard earlier that the thing to look out for in galveston is a wind shift to he se. that shift would literally mean a difference in billions of dollars of damage. i know it has to do with the eye in relation to the bay but can't quite get my arms around track that would result in se wind.

I'm pretty sure it would mean IKE was hitting to the west of Galveston...

[capepoint]

cnn met just said winds at mouth of houston ship channel were 86. I would think that would be a pretty exposed area, and on a real annemometer, so i would think that is about what the reporters are getting.

[Category 5]

Rain starting, outside drinking vino w/ Los Salvadorenos, seen several transformer explosions that light up the sky, lights flicker each time, but stay on...

Remember not to make any predictions tonight Ed.

Looking better on radar, eyewall just offshore.

[WxGuy1]

The structure seems to be greatly improved compared to the past 48-72 hours. In fact, that "dead" zone between the inner and outer eyewalls appears to be filling in right now. However, if I loop the last ~1 hr of HGX radar data quickly, it certainly seems to me that the storm has lifted just north of NW lately. If the center manages to past east of Galveston (even by 15-20 miles), I think there will be a huge change in the damage potential in that community. Indeed, if Ike ends up landfalling just NE of Galveston, there will be strong offshore flow. In addition, RECON continues to find that the NE quad is the worst by some margin, so even wind destruction potential would be quite a bit reduced. I think there could be a multi-billion dollar difference if Ike manages to landfall NE of Galveston as opposed to landfalling SW of Galveston. It seems that most of the TX coast is still is ENE to NE winds, winds that are parallel to the shore, resulting in a lessened blow (so far) since there is some significant wind reduction associated with friction over the land. It looks to me that the worst conditions may well end up NE of Galveston now (between Port Arthur and Galveston). Of course, there only needs to be one wobble to the due west to bring Galveston back into the NE quad.

Galv. is sitting just outside the inner eyewall now...

[jinftl]

The Attorney General of Texas started his interview by saying, ' my primary concern is Geraldo'. That clip will be on every website spoofing the guy....

[mtm4319]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Is it just me, or are we seeing a north (not NW, not NNW) wobble over the past hour?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guy on MSNBC in Galveston just tried to step out into the wind and was nearly knocked to the ground by a gust. The surge seems to really be coming in now too.

[yzerfan]

he brought those from new york...props

Chunks of the Galveston sea wall crumbling off. No breach that I know of.

No, no, that's what he really found in Al Capone's vault.

We're sending the KHOU feed from one of the satellite boxes to the DVD burner because it'll be the best feed for our archive of major news events. (Not just hurricanes, any big news gets recorded) But Geraldo's just such a trainwreck I can't look away from him when we switch to the other satellite box.

[soonertwister]

Chunks of the Galveston sea wall crumbling off. No breach that I know of.

I do wonder what erosion under water is doing to the wall. Those seas must be unbelievable in their sheer force right now. Storm hydraulics are a tremendously powerful force.

[Nimbus]

literally mean a difference in billions of dollars of damage

The track needs to come around just a little more to the north so the eyewall winds from the SE pass east of the Bay not over the island and up the bay.

[capepoint]

I do not understand why mandatory evacuations are not really mandatory. I find it baffling that a government will allow children to be exposed by their parents to these types of dangers. Having said that I think it would be a good thing if Geraldo were no more.

you cant make someone leave their home. Unconstitutional. you can charge parents with child endangerment, but would have to wait until after the house was destroyed to prove they were really in danger.

It aint illegal to be stupid.

it's not perfect, but it's our legal system.

[Ptarmigan]

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

That's not good. I think Houston is going to be one big mess.

Where did you get that information?

[CrazyC83]

With those gust reports in the NW quad, I am starting to wonder if this will in post-analysis be bumped up to 100 kt if it doesn't operationally.

[Steve]

just lost power
Out here In Lockport. Big tensformer blow at bollinger shipyard. Peace from semi intoxicated lafourche parish la.

[Sanibel]

I think the reason the bands haven't been gaining on Houston too quickly is because of the trough. We could see a west core pass of Houston and the worst east eyewall east of the bay. Or just a tick right.

[tolakram]

Fortunately I think Galveston is going to be west or right in the middle of the eye now. Unless it moves due west for a while.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

That's not good. I think Houston is going to be one big mess.

Where did you get that information?

Stacy Stewart...

[Sanibel]

The eye will definitely pass over Galveston.

[vbhoutex]

Chunks of the Galveston sea wall crumbling off. No breach that I know of.

Where are you getting this information from? The weather is too bad in Galveston for anyone to be out confirming this especially close to the seawall.