ATL: IKE Discussion

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PTPatrick
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12281 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:48 pm

Just heard there are 5 people in a church on the bolivar peninsula. That doesnt sound good. It looked like an aluminum outbuilding. Cant imagine that it will fare well even if water didnt inundate it.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12282 Postby bayoubebe » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:48 pm

PTPatrick wrote:from HOU CHRON:As Hurricane Ike pushed a swelling surge onto Galveston Island tonight, many Galveston residents who ignored a mandatory evacuation order phoned for rescues to no avail because emergency workers were called off the streets, officials said.
Help wasn't expected until after dangerous storm conditions subsided.
"We don't know what we're going to find tomorrow," said the city's mayor, Lyda Ann Thomas. "We hope we'll find that the people who didn't leave here are alive and well."
City Manager Steve LeBlanc went so far as to ask the media not to photograph "certain things" in the aftermath, referring to the possibility of dead bodies.
Power was out all across the island, much of which already had flooded. Two house fires are burning, as did a boat warehouse that was widely photographed earlier today.
Power lines are down, he said, and it may be weeks before it can be restored. Assessment teams will get out Saturday morning after the storm. Fifty people were rescued from high water and about 260 are in a shelter at Ball High School.
LeBlanc said he didn't know how long it would take before evacuated residents could return. The city may briefly allow them back in to check on their homes, but will then ask them to leave again until the city is safe.
"We feel the city of Galveston will have suffered from this storm," she said.
Power outages extended across the Houston area, well beyond the coast but mainly south of Interstate 10 as of 11 p.m., CenterPoint Energy spokesman Floyd LeBlanc said. At least 510,000 customers were without electricity, with outages ranging as far northwest as Jersey Village and northeast as Humble.
Entergy Texas, which services communities to the east of Houston, had about 29,300 customers without power at 9 p.m. Friday night, according to spokeswoman Debi Derrick. The company said it would be the last update until Saturday morning.
Galveston ordered an 8 p.m. curfew because 40 percent of the city's 58,000 residents ignored calls to evacuate. The curfew ends at 5 a.m. Saturday but will continue along the same schedule for Galveston and Pelican Island through Monday morning.
"We're going to make sure these homes are safe when they return," said Thomas, the mayor.
Earlier today, LeBlanc expressed dismay that so much of the city's population remained behind to ride out the storm.
''It's unfortunate that the warning we sent out — the mayor's mandatory evacuation — was not heeded,'' he said.
By comparison, nearly 100 percent of Galveston left the island during Hurricane Rita, just three years ago.
Galveston Island was the site of the nation's deadliest natural disaster the hurricane of 1900, which claimed at least 6,000 lives.


I will never understand why anyone living in Galveston would not have evacuated. They were warned and with this storm(unlike some others) had plenty of time to prepare, IMO. It's been pretty much on track for a long time. I'm surprised at how many people in the Houston area did not evacuate also, especially families with children. :?:
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#12283 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:48 pm

tv blew up at our house. Generator power to the wall
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#12284 Postby Aristotle » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:49 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Emergency personnel pulled early, everyone's on their own from here on out.


And people are calling for help now. Wanting a rescue. Sooooo sad. I can't tell you how many people had small children with them saying they were staying. Especially south of Seawall Blvd, were there is a rather large trailer park. They've got a chance because they're behind the Seawall. People on the west or east of the Island are for lack of a better way of putting it. Gone!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12285 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:49 pm

jinftl wrote:There could be quite an extended calmer period of that large eye moves over galveston....dumb question....does surge rush out during the time when winds calm down or do waves still pound and difficult to notice appreciable drop...then the right eye wall moves over


The surge is actually the worst during the eye.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12286 Postby soonertwister » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:49 pm

Homeland Secretary Chertoff said that surge would exceed 16-17, maybe 20 feet on Galveston Island, with some areas to the east getting 25 feet or more.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12287 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:49 pm

am thinking that even if winds calm the seas are still going to be chaotic and pound the shore....no way the seas die down as fast as wind....but direction water that is on land goes...no clue

kurtpage wrote:
jinftl wrote:There could be quite an extended calmer period of that large eye moves over galveston....dumb question....does surge rush out during the time when winds calm down or do waves still pound and difficult to notice appreciable drop...then the right eye wall moves over



I wish that I could answer this, but I can not with difinity answer it. If I were guessing, the waves still stay...the wind and rain are lessened during this time....

Once again just my guess...
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#12288 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:50 pm

The footage of the bending palms and the flying debris behind the reporters on CNN who are in Galveston suggests that winds could easily be gusting to ~100mph there right now. The reports of 125mph and 135mph we are hearing are probably too high, but I seriously would not doubt a few gusts up into the 95-105mph range.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12289 Postby bayoubebe » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:51 pm

soonertwister wrote:A Galveston police lieutenant just reported that they've gone out on 4-wheel vehicles and boats and made roughly 200-250 rescues of people requesting help tonight, those who they could reach.


I feel sorry for the police doing the rescuing. They are having to risk their lives because certain people did not follow evacaution orders. I thought they weren't going to get out and try to rescue them at this point? God Bless those out there risking their lives for others.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12290 Postby jimguru » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:51 pm

Jijenji wrote:Anyone have the latest recon data?


I have the vortex from 0235z
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12291 Postby capepoint » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:51 pm

jinftl wrote:There could be quite an extended calmer period of that large eye moves over galveston....dumb question....does surge rush out during the time when winds calm down or do waves still pound and difficult to notice appreciable drop...then the right eye wall moves over


surge will start to go out slowly after eye passes. waves are a little calmer in eye but not much. Wind direction may actually "blow" surge out, depending on geography of area. Here on outer banks, I have actually seen it go from flooding surge to totally dry land in the sounds where there is normally 5 to 10 feet of water. Very strange to see it.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12292 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:51 pm

They are showing the water ON the seawall blvd...NOT lapping onto it...wouldnt that make the surge ALREADY at 16-17 ft?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12293 Postby tifanij » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:52 pm

Wow, had to check out Geraldo based on yall's comments...just a little ridiculous! :)
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fasterdisaster
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12294 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:53 pm

PTPatrick wrote:They are showing the water ON the seawall blvd...NOT lapping onto it...wouldnt that make the surge ALREADY at 16-17 ft?


No, I've tried to tell people, but the seawall is only 10 FEET above sea level. Erosion has caused this in the last century.
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#12295 Postby mathwhizz » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:53 pm

It's wobbling back more to the west now.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12296 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:53 pm

bayoubebe wrote:
soonertwister wrote:A Galveston police lieutenant just reported that they've gone out on 4-wheel vehicles and boats and made roughly 200-250 rescues of people requesting help tonight, those who they could reach.


I feel sorry for the police doing the rescuing. They are having to risk their lives because certain people did not follow evacaution orders. I thought they weren't going to get out and try to rescue them at this point? God Bless those out there risking their lives for others.


They aren't going out anymore, that's just the number they got before stopping.
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#12297 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:54 pm

Hobby Airport: 47 mph sustained, gusting to 68 mph - pressure 985 and tumbling...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12298 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:55 pm

Looks to be strengthing as it is moving in...Soild reds and blacks over 2/3rds of the circ...Only the northwest side don't have that. Recon could find cat3 surface winds with this. It is looking almost as good as it did as it made landfall over Eastern Cuba.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12299 Postby kurtpage » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:55 pm

the 130446 recon data did not report....
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12300 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:55 pm

SO, does that mean that all thees people saying Galveston is at 20 ft are wrong and that most of galveston near the seawall is actually more like 11-12 ft?
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