ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Will the highest surge come all of a sudden or will it continue to be a slow steady rise? I had thought as the eye came onshore that there might be a wall of water that would inundate all at once?(I understand at its peak the high tide and waves will may it even higher correct?) Just curious. Thanks.

It will be gradual to around 13 feet and then as the eye comes ashore will rapidly increase to around 18 feet.

[jinftl]

estimate at best....no insurance adjusters have been on the scene yet....no real damage reports established yet...so yeah, bs.

Wikipedia says an estimated 7 billion of damage occurred in the US as of THIS MORNING. Was the surge really that bad on the north Gulf Coast or is this BS?

[fasterdisaster]

Wikipedia says an estimated 7 billion of damage occurred in the US as of THIS MORNING. Was the surge really that bad on the north Gulf Coast or is this BS?

That is based on insurers' estimates, so it really should have been $14 billion. It will likely be higher though.

That is insanity, this is just an area that was 200 miles from the center!

[NFLnut]

Dr, Lyons on TWC says Houston will probably see sustained hurricane force winds..but it will happen in stages...On map says wind structure damage likely in galveston to north and east and possible as you move west through houston....drop off pretty quick after that.

That is an update from the map he showed before....when track foecast was a bit further south the core of worst winds expected included houston proper...now shifted a bit to north and east. Not a huge shift...but enough to maybe make a difference as you move to west side of the city.

That's at least some good news My dad had to evacuate Lake Jackson and they went to Katy. I wasn't certain that would be far enough away, but it sounds a little better.

[jasons2k]

It's been wobbling, and it looks like another westward wobble is commencing.

[Shoshana]

KVUE's 24.2 digital channel's been streaming KHOU all day... and it's suddenly ... not.

[Ptarmigan]

Wikipedia says an estimated 7 billion of damage occurred in the US as of THIS MORNING. Was the surge really that bad on the north Gulf Coast or is this BS?

It's what FEMA is estimating.

[capepoint]

looking at color enhanced sat, brightest reds are in eastern wall. may not have even seen the worst of this yet. hope I'm wrong.

[Ptarmigan]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130459
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE APPROACHING GALVESTON ISLAND...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1200 AM CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS...
AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
GALVESTON ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1200 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0459.shtml

No change in strength, but it is getting closer.

[zaqxsw75050]

11 foot surge in Galveston at least already

UTM (or UTB?) first floor flooded

Anyone got an online TWC Stream? (I'm Canadian, so I can't get it directly)

It is UTMB

[capepoint]

Sabine Pass just recorded highest surge ever.- msnbc

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Will the highest surge come all of a sudden or will it continue to be a slow steady rise? I had thought as the eye came onshore that there might be a wall of water that would inundate all at once?(I understand at its peak the high tide and waves will may it even higher correct?) Just curious. Thanks.

Its sort of exponential, dependent on the windfield. THink bell curve. Slow steady rise, then gradually accelerating in increase, but no wall of water unless a levy breaks. Its not a tsunami.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From MSNBC - Record water level reached at Sabine Pass, beating the old record set by Audrey in 1957 by at least a half foot!

[Category 5]

Wikipedia says an estimated 7 billion of damage occurred in the US as of THIS MORNING. Was the surge really that bad on the north Gulf Coast or is this BS?

The key word in this post

"Wikipedia"

[Pebbles]

I know many of you are going to think this is a silly question... but I think it's quite legit. Chicago, and other large cities, have an effect on the weather (thunderstorms for example) because of the concrete and tall buildings. They actually have a term for this in the mets want to comment (cant recall atm due to lack of sleep... hot island effect? or something like that).

Does anyone think the buildings/city of Houston might have an effect on the hurricane in small ways. Disrupting a strip of storms in the hurricane, maybe? My understanding is hurricanes are basically thousands of thunderstorms spinning around the Low.

[CrazyC83]

FEMA now estimating $10 billion (if that is insured, then $20 billion) according to CNN.

[mtm4319]

Still 110 at the midnight advisory. 35 miles SSE of Galveston, moving at 12... maybe another advisory at 2, just as it's making landfall.

They could still up it to a Cat 3 at landfall...I believe they increased the intensity by 5 knots when they issued the landfall bulletin for Gustav.

They actually knocked Gustav down a category (from 3 to 2, 115mph to 110mph) as the eyewall began to cross land.

THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. ... REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

(Side note: on the noon advisory of that day, "New Orleans" suddenly became a direction.

AT 1200 PM CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NEW ORLEANS OF LOUISIANA.

(But enough about Gustav...)

[jinftl]

TWC met in Brazoria County...Klute area...says winds have gusted to about 50 mph ....no real damage or flooding yet

Dr, Lyons on TWC says Houston will probably see sustained hurricane force winds..but it will happen in stages...On map says wind structure damage likely in galveston to north and east and possible as you move west through houston....drop off pretty quick after that.

That is an update from the map he showed before....when track foecast was a bit further south the core of worst winds expected included houston proper...now shifted a bit to north and east. Not a huge shift...but enough to maybe make a difference as you move to west side of the city.

That's at least some good news My dad had to evacuate Lake Jackson and they went to Katy. I wasn't certain that would be far enough away, but it sounds a little better.

[rjgator]

Does anyone know where you can get real time surge reports

[funster]

Texas Gov. Perry said $81 billion? http://www.news8austin.com/content/your ... rID=219622