ATL: IKE Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT12 KNHC 130644
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/06:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 11 min N
094 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 87 kt
E. 062 deg 28 nm
F. 150 deg 108 kt
G. 060 deg 048 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 11 C/ 3048 m
J. 16 C/ 3048 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 3509A IKE1 OB 14
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 06:15:30 Z

[bob rulz]

On a personal note, I think it may be better if they don't raise the category of the storm. This will show the damage that a category 2 storm can cause, and maybe next time people won't take a category 2 storm so lightly (dream on, I know.)

That's not the NHC's job though. Observations seem to support a cat 3, therefore NHC should upgrade it to cat 3.

Based on how it looks on satellite I'm surprised it's not 125 or 130.

[fasterdisaster]

If the last frame's movement continues he will go in between Galveston and the Bolivar peninsula and up the west shore of the bay and downtown Houston WILL get the eyewall.

[WxGuy1]

That's not the NHC's job though. Observations seem to support a cat 3, therefore NHC should upgrade it to cat 3.

Based on how it looks on satellite I'm surprised it's not 125 or 130.

What observations support Cat 3? I haven't seen any dropsonde, SFMR, or surface observation site data to suggest Cat 3 winds. The 0.9 reduction factor has thus far been too high for Ike, so don't depend upon any standard wind reduction from FL to support CAt 3 sfc winds.

I'm not blaming you (!), but there are some people who seem to be making it their goal and seem to hope that Ike will be bumped up to Cat 3. I'm just confused as to why when the SFMR, dropsonde, and sfc site data do not suggest that (that I've seen, at least!).

[Deathray]

The "wobbles" people seem to be jumping on are looking to me as contractions of the eyewall

The path of the storm of itself is not changing to a great deal... it's basically following the NHC track, if not a little SouthWest of it

[mtm4319]

It looks like the worst damage will be from the far eastern side of Bolivar peninsula to Port Arthur. No doubt lots of damage to Galveston and Houston, but not nearly as bad as it may have been.

And as I mentioned earlier, coastal Jefferson County is pretty much marshland.

[bob rulz]

That's not the NHC's job though. Observations seem to support a cat 3, therefore NHC should upgrade it to cat 3.

Based on how it looks on satellite I'm surprised it's not 125 or 130.

What observations support Cat 3? I haven't seen any dropsonde, SFMR, or surface observation site data to suggest Cat 3 winds. The 0.9 reduction factor has thus far been too high for Ike, so don't depend upon any standard wind reduction from FL to support CAt 3 sfc winds.

I meant to say something more like IF observations support a cat 3 then they should upgrade it to a cat 3. It's not their job to keep it at cat 2 "just to show how powerful a cat 2 can be".

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The "wobbles" people seem to be jumping on are looking to me as contractions of the eyewall

The path of the storm of itself is not changing to a great deal... it's basically following the NHC track, if not a little SouthWest of it

We will wait and see what the nhc says...But Deathray you see it moving on the nhc track? Maybe it could be a sign of a tighting eye.

[Derek Ortt]

those who are saying the flight level winds indicate this a cat 3 need to read Franklin et al. 2003 and then start posting about the reduction factors

[NC George]

The 109 knots would support 113 mph at the surface, in to back that up the 107 knot readings would support 110.7 mph at the surface. I think we have enough to upgrade.

The FL winds have been been reducing the way we usually see them. As far as I know, there have no been any SFMR or dropsonde (or sfc obs) measurements above 85 kts. Again, it's better to have SFC data than having to rely on guessing a wind reduction from FL when RECON has shown that the wind reduction is lower than 0.9 in those places where there are sfc observations. Hurricanes are rated according to maximum sustained wind speed. That's it. If the max sustained wind speeds are not at the Cat 3 level, then Ike will not (and should not!) be rated a Cat 3. Sure, the surge may be more reminiscient of a Cat 4 or 5, but that's not how hurricanes are rated.

Well said. I myself am always somewhat skeptical of the flight level to surface level wind speed correlation, seems they usually estimate the wind speed higher than surface reports later indicate. As to the surge, there are so many variables other than wind speed that can change the surge in one particular location (such as wind direction, fetch, duration of wind, coastal geography) that to make surge estimates based solely on wind speed is merely speculating.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm looking at the radar and he has definitely resumed WNW to NW. Landfall will be on extreme east tip of Galv. Island. It looks like it'll continue to around San Leon. Whoever was asking about Kemah, the center looks to pass unofficially a couple miles (literally 'a couple') SW of there.

[Jason_B]

If Ike is not a category 3 than sorry Ivan and Rita weren't either. NHC needs to stop generously overestimating some hurricanes and not others (Ike for example).

[mathwhizz]

The "wobbles" people seem to be jumping on are looking to me as contractions of the eyewall

The path of the storm of itself is not changing to a great deal... it's basically following the NHC track, if not a little SouthWest of it

Yes, this is what I see too. It's gone from an 80 mile wide eye to about 30 miles.

[soonertwister]

MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 06:15:30 Z

I dont think they'll upgrade. I think if they don't get 110 kt flight level, they won't upgrade to a 3.

VERY close.

[fasterdisaster]

The 109 knots would support 113 mph at the surface, in to back that up the 107 knot readings would support 110.7 mph at the surface. I think we have enough to upgrade.

The FL winds have been been reducing the way we usually see them. As far as I know, there have no been any SFMR or dropsonde (or sfc obs) measurements above 85 kts. Again, it's better to have SFC data than having to rely on guessing a wind reduction from FL when RECON has shown that the wind reduction is lower than 0.9 in those places where there are sfc observations. Hurricanes are rated according to maximum sustained wind speed. That's it. If the max sustained wind speeds are not at the Cat 3 level, then Ike will not (and should not!) be rated a Cat 3. Sure, the surge may be more reminiscient of a Cat 4 or 5, but that's not how hurricanes are rated.

Well said. I myself am always somewhat skeptical of the flight level to surface level wind speed correlation, seems they usually estimate the wind speed higher than surface reports later indicate. As to the surge, there are so many variables other than wind speed that can change the surge in one particular location (such as wind direction, fetch, duration of wind, coastal geography) that to make surge estimates based solely on wind speed is merely speculating.

That is not why surface reports on land are lower, it is because they are lowered by land friction. It's extremely rare to find sustained winds on land that are actually as high as those in the advisory.

[SouthFloridawx]

[bob rulz]

They kept it at 110 it looks like, but still mentioned that it could make landfall as a low 3.

[Deathray]

We will wait and see what the nhc says...But Deathray you see it moving on the nhc track? Maybe it could be a sign of a tighting eye.

As far as I can tell... it almost looks dead on to what NHC was predicting, but at this time... my eyes are tired lol

I just see that all the wobbles people have been observing have been countered by an opposite wobble, and they almost always seem to be occur while the eye has been changing (from such a large eye to a smaller diameter one)

I'm a noob at this though... just it's going back and forth

[fasterdisaster]

The "wobbles" people seem to be jumping on are looking to me as contractions of the eyewall

The path of the storm of itself is not changing to a great deal... it's basically following the NHC track, if not a little SouthWest of it

Yes, this is what I see too. It's gone from an 80 mile wide eye to about 30 miles.

I don't think so, tolakram's actually been plotting the center given by the NHC each advisory and he has been alternating between almost due north and almost due west. Right now after a north jog he looks to again be turning towards the WNW to NW

[NC George]

I meant to say something more like IF observations support a cat 3 then they should upgrade it to a cat 3. It's not their job to keep it at cat 2 "just to show how powerful a cat 2 can be".

I would agree with that statement. My initial statement about leaving it a 2 was to say that if there are no direct observation of it being a 3, then they shouldn't raise it to a 3 just because it's close (even within 1 mph.)