New Tropical Model Run - S Central GOM. A left turn

KatDaddy · #1 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 21, 2003 2:55 pm

The models want to shove TD 6 or tropical wave into S Central GOM near Yucatan......Claudettes sister??

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 21, 2003 3:09 pm

It's too early to tell anything..it may fall apart!! :wink:

I still go with the earlier model runs..on account of the trough. :wink:

HURRICANELONNY · #3 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Mon Jul 21, 2003 3:22 pm

I definitely wouldn't put much emphasis on any models because there not doing such a good job right now. I think there were two models that put it to an open wave and then crashed and burned. If it is downgraded at the speed it is currently going it will probably head for venazuela.

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 21, 2003 3:24 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I definitely wouldn't put much emphasis on any models because there not doing such a good job right now. I think there were two models that put it to an open wave and then crashed and burned. If it is downgraded at the speed it is currently going it will probably head for venazuela.

I mean I go with the 5 day..they pretty much nailed it with claudette :wink:

KatDaddy · #5 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 21, 2003 3:30 pm

Game over for TD6. Rainband was right on target. Regeneration down the road....who knows??

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jul 21, 2003 3:32 pm

I agree, with the system not being initialized as at least a strong tropical depression... the more westward track doesn't make sense with the frontal system moving toward it. The previous model runs make more sense with this taken into consideration.

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:32 am

ColdFront77 wrote:I agree, with the system not being initialized as at least a strong tropical depression... the more westward track doesn't make sense with the frontal system moving toward it. The previous model runs make more sense with this taken into consideration.

Please give some explanation why you say this.

It has always been my experience that the open waves and weaker TD's or TS's are steered by the lower currents, which are westerly in this region. This wave is way too far S to be affected by the incoming trough, IMO.

weatherlover427 · #8 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:39 am

vbhoutex wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:I agree, with the system not being initialized as at least a strong tropical depression... the more westward track doesn't make sense with the frontal system moving toward it. The previous model runs make more sense with this taken into consideration.

Please give some explanation why you say this.

It has always been my experience that the open waves and weaker TD's or TS's are steered by the lower currents, which are westerly in this region. This wave is way too far S to be affected by the incoming trough, IMO.

I am not too familiar with tropical systems, so I can learn from this

. I would think that TD's would be steered by the lower currents anyway; given that they are weaker than any TS (OK, maybe the 40-45 MPH TS's could be included).

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 1:15 am

As the tropical wave moves toward the western Caribbean toward the United States it will have a northerly component and approach the cold front which then should influence the movement of whatever we have by that time.

It was mentioned on televison and here in this forum that the forecast track on Sunday was taking the trough into account.

New Tropical Model Run - S Central GOM. A left turn

New Tropical Model Run - S Central GOM. A left turn

MODELS?

Re: MODELS?

TD 6 now a Wave....Reset the models

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